Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 3rd at 1:00 PM ET
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Betting Odds: TEN -7.5, 46 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (Sit)
In Tennessee’s Week 3 victory over the Colts, Ryan Tannehill was held to under 200 passing yards (197) for the first time this season and had his first multi-INT game with two but did contribute 55 rushing yards and threw for three TDs to salvage his fantasy day. Tannehill probably crept into the lower QB1 rankings but it wasn’t very pretty as the team turned to the running game late. As of this writing, questions abound as to who will man the WR positions for the Titans this week, although it may not much as they face the hapless Jets. Expect another safe game from Tannehill and crew as they look to cruise in what is expected to be a low-scoring, easy victory for Tennessee. I don’t suspect we’ll get another multi-TD from Tannehill this week and, as such, would recommend fantasy managers leave him on their benches in Week 4.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1), Jeremy McNichols (Sit)
The Titans leaned on the rushing game in Week 3, running the ball 37 times to just 27 pass attempts as they pounded the Colts into submission. As usual, the bulk of the heavy lifting fell on the capable shoulders of Derrick Henry as he bowled over defenders to the tune of 113 yards on his 28 carries. Once again, Henry was also involved in the passing game more than in the past as he saw three targets on the day, converting all three for 31 yards. Henry projects to have another fine outing as the Titans are more than seven-point favorites in Week 5. The biggest risk to Henry’s value is if Tennessee builds an insurmountable lead and rests players late in the game, but Henry figures to be a prominent part of any lead Tennessee builds. Henry was drafted as an RB1 this season and should be considered as such. Start him.
Jeremy McNichols continues to see about 25% of Tennessee’s snaps but continues to be a bit part of the offense seeing six or fewer opportunities in every game this season. McNichols did convert one of his two targets into a receiving TD, but TDs are so hard to predict and it’s just the second offensive TD of his career. McNichols might get some garbage-time work if the Titans get up big, but he is much more valuable to the Titans than to fantasy managers. Bench McNichols in Week 4.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Sit), Julio Jones (Sit if Brown plays, Start, WR3 if Brown is out), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Sit), Chester Rogers (Sit), Anthony Firkser/Geoff Swaim/MyCole Pruitt (Sit)
Well, here we are. What to do with the receiving options for the Titans. As of right now, I’m not entirely sure. Last week, A.J. Brown suffered a hamstring injury that held him to seven snaps and reports suggest it could be a multi-week injury. OK, so big bump to Julio Jones’s value, right? Not so fast. Despite Brown missing virtually the entire game, Jones was frequently on the sideline during key stretches, to the surprise of fans and commentators alike. When asked why Jones was used sparingly in the second half, HC Mike Vrabel said, “Just trying to manage where he’s at, and the type of game the end of the game would be.” If Brown is unable to go this week, and early indications are he may not, will Jones see an increase in playing time? That’s the biggest conundrum fantasy managers will face this week. If I had to decide today, I’m benching Brown regardless of whether he is playing or not and putting Jones as a WR3 or Flex. If Brown plays, he almost certainly won’t be at 100% and would act primarily as a decoy but might see just enough action to bump Jones out of WR3 consideration. Keep tabs on reports coming out of Titans’ practices this week to help in deciding what to do with these two WRs.
If you had Chester Rogers, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and McNichols on your Tennessee TD BINGO board, then you would have hit the jackpot. Rogers seems to have a firm grasp on the team’s WR3 role but has seen his target share decrease in each of the first three weeks of the season. Rogers did score the first TD of the game last week but was targeted just one other time on the day. Rogers does serve as the team’s primary kick returner which might partially explain why he wasn’t a bigger part of the offense when Brown exited the game. Rogers might see an uptick with a full week’s worth of practices with Brown sidelined, but the biggest beneficiary just might be Westbrook-Ikhine. Westbrook-Ikhine was on the field for 78% of Tennessee’s snaps last week and took advantage of the increased opportunity with four receptions on four targets for 53 yards and his first career TD. Westbrook-Ikhine lined up as the team’s #2 WR and would likely assume that role again this week if Brown were to miss. Despite TDs last week, it’s hard to recommend the third or fourth option from a low-volume passing offense as a viable fantasy contributor this week. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for WR help in Week 5.
It is yet to be seen if Anthony Firkser will be able to return from the knee injury he suffered before the team’s Week 2 contest, but it’s hard to trust anybody at that position for fantasy purposes right now. Geoff Swaim has been the most involved of the bunch, but he’s seen just seven targets on the season and only has five receptions for 34 yards. MyCole Pruitt has been the most productive, but four receptions for 50 yards in three weeks leaves a lot to be desired. Unless one of these guys separates from the rest and starts seeing reliable volume, there is no reason to even roster one of these guys let alone consider starting them.
New York Jets
Quarterback
Zach Wilson (Sit)
It’s hard to judge early first-round rookie QBs because the team is selecting high in the first round for a reason. They are a bad team, or at least were one of the worst the previous season. Therefore, I’m going to reserve judgment on Zach Wilson as an NFL player for at least this year but can confidently say he is not very valuable as a fantasy player this season. As most rookie QBs do, Wilson has struggled with consistency and decision-making but has also been playing behind arguably one of the worst offensive lines in football. Losing perceived franchise LT Mekhi Becton sure hasn’t helped either. Wilson is cursed with a poor running game behind him as well, leaving defenses to run exotic defenses designed to confuse QBs without worrying about the RB breaking big gains. Wilson will likely improve as the team around him does, but that doesn’t help fantasy managers and Wilson should be benched until we see consistent improvement from him and the team.
Running Backs
Tevin Coleman (Sit), Michael Carter (Sit), Ty Johnson (Sit)
What a mess. The Jets have one rookie and two castoffs vying for carries and none of them are showing enough to be viable for fantasy purposes. Early-season reports indicated Tevin Coleman was going to lead the backfield despite an impressive preseason from rookie Michael Carter. So far, Coleman has the fewest carries and least production of the three and seems to have fallen behind the other two in the RB pecking order. Carter has had the most statistical success among the three, garnering 137 combined yards and leading the backfield in receptions with five. Arguably, however, the most interesting player for fantasy managers through three weeks has been Ty Johnson. Johnson leads the RBs in snaps through three weeks and was the preferred option in the passing game in last week’s loss to Denver. All that being said, unless one of these guys establishes himself as the clear-cut #1 RB none of them can be trusted on fantasy rosters. I think Coleman is officially the odd man out and would monitor the practice reps and game participation between Johnson and Carter if looking for a late-season or emergency BYE player, but I wouldn’t expect much from either this season.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Corey Davis (Start, WR3/Flex), Keelan Cole (Sit), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Elijah Moore (Sit), Tyler Kroft (Sit)
Given the previous two sections, it might be surprising to see anybody from the Jets as a recommended start, but here we are. Corey Davis finally started to show the reason he was the fifth-overall selection in the 2017 NFL Draft as he set career-highs in receiving yards (984) and receiving TDs (5) and matched a career-high in receptions (65). Davis has accounted for ALL of the Jets TDs this season, catching both in Week 1. Davis is leading the team in targets with 22 and saw a team-high 10 last week. The Jets will almost certainly be playing from behind more than they are with the lead which tends to lead to a more pass-heavy offense. Davis appears to be the primary option for Wilson and has shown he can post startable fantasy numbers in the past. He’s no more than a WR3 or Flex option given the limitations of the offense, but his volume is encouraging and should lead to some productive weeks.
After being a measurable part of the offense in Weeks 1 and 2 (18 total targets), Braxton Berrios saw just three targets last week and managed two receptions for 26 yards. The big question becomes, which data set is the true measure of Berrios’s involvement in the offense? The answer probably lies somewhere in between, maybe 5-7 targets per game, with some upside. Unfortunately, New York’s offense is so unpredictable right now it’s hard to recommend Berrios as a reliable starting option. If he continues to see 6+ targets per game, he becomes a stash and see what happens guy but I’d advise against starting him this week.
One of the most talked-about rookies heading into the season was Elijah Moore and he has been a consistent part of the offense through three weeks. Moore averages six targets per game but we’ve yet to see him do much with his opportunities. Moore seems to have the skills to become a very good WR in the NFL but it might take another season for the offense to get enough complementary pieces to take full advantage of them. Moore did suffer a concussion near the end of the team’s Week 3 game and must clear concussion protocol before he will be able to play in Week 4. I don’t think Moore is a viable option for fantasy managers, but monitor his progress throughout the week if you are forced into using him this week.
Keelan Cole saw as much work as Moore in Week 3 but only saw two targets in the contest. If Moore is unable to play in Week 4, Cole might see an uptick in snaps and targets, but he’s too far down the target pecking order to see much value generated from any increase in usage. Bench Cole in Week 4.
Tyler Kroft has been the most productive fantasy TE for the Jets, but that’s kind of like being the smartest dumb kid. Kroft has seen just two targets in each of the team’s last two games and isn’t involved enough to be a realistic startable option. Look elsewhere for TE help this week.