Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 3rd at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Betting Odds: -1.5 MIA, 43 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77 on Twitter and Reddit)
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Carson Wentz (Sit)
It is tough to watch Carson Wentz right now, and despite the injuries he has been battling, it is tough to say whether or not things will improve. Wentz is holding the ball far too long and making bad decisions as defenders close in on him. What is more concerning is his lack of aggressiveness. Wentz has an aDOT of just 5.2 yards, choosing dump-offs, one of the lowest numbers in the league. Most concerning, however, is his use of the field. Wentz has completed just two downfield passes to the left side of the field on the season. He doesn’t even seem to be attacking the field in that direction. For now, Wentz should be on waivers until he turns it around.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB2), Nyheim Hines (Start, Flex)
Jonathan Taylor has started slowly this season, with three average performances. Last week was his best game from a rushing yardage standpoint, but he still managed just 64 yards on the ground. Three straight games of under 12 fantasy points will leave a bad taste in any fantasy manager’s mouth but better things are ahead. Taylor is an elite ball carrier but managers should be aware that he is almost non-existent in the passing game. While he is seeing 63% of the team’s carries, he is only seeing 14% of the team’s targets, even after a big game as a receiver in Week 1. Still, Taylor’s talent will prevail and he will continue to have value as a high-end RB2.
A staple of the zero RB strategy is drafting pass-catching backs and the poster boy for the strategy is Nyheim Hines. Hines had his second Top 24 RB week last Sunday and is playing nearly 50% of the team snaps. He even earned a red zone carry last week that he punched in for a nice touchdown. Hines is an excellent weekly flex play and can even be used as an RB2 in a zero RB strategy. While he will be boom or bust, he can be started any week for managers looking for solid points in a PPR league. In a standard lineup, Hines has limited value and belongs on the bench.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Pittman (Start, Flex), Parris Campbell (Sit), Zach Pascal (Sit), Jack Doyle (Sit)
Michael Pittman and Zack Pascal are the team’s primary receivers, both seeing nearly 100% of the team’s snaps. Pittman has a solid day in Week 3 after a big game the previous week but Wentz’s inability to target receivers downfield will be a problem as the season progresses. Most of Pittman’s production has come in the slot, in three receivers sets, and that sort of usage is not ideal. Pittman is seeing just 10.5 air yards per target and is being targetted on short crossers where he can produce yards after the catch. With this sort of usage Pittman is a solid flex play but as long as Wentz is struggling his upside is capped.
Parris Campbell is seeing 20% target share, a solid number but he is running just 15 routes per game. That is not enough volume to be relied upon. Zach Pascal is the primary slot receiver, a position Wentz targets at a high rate, but with a low expected total he isn’t a player managers should be targeting as a starter. At tight end, Jack Doyle’s usage has been lower than expected. Doyle can be cut in most formats.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett (Sit)
Jacoby Brissett was able to grind out a late drive to tie the game and send it into overtime, but ultimately he is a limited fantasy option. Brissett averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt and finished with 215 yards passing. Those numbers aren’t enough to move the needle for fantasy managers.
Running Backs
Myles Gaskin (Start, Flex), Malcolm Brown (Sit)
The Dolphins backfield is frustrating and feels like a copy of New England. Myles Gaskin earned 62% of the rushing attempts in Week 3 but that only amounted to 13 carries. Gaskin is also coming off of the field in the green zone, attempts inside of the 10, and giving up touches to Malcolm Brown. Still, Gaskin is the most talented runner in this backfield and the Dolphins should begin to trust Myles as the season progresses. This week managers can expect enough touches to make Gaskin a solid flex play with upside.
Brown is seeing high-value touches but is a touchdown dependant option that doesn’t have solid value until bye weeks begin.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jaylen Waddle (Start, Flex), Will Fuller (Start, Flex), DeVante Parker (Sit), Mike Gesicki (Start, Low-end TE1)
With Brissett, the Dolphins’ passing attack will be limited. Jaylen Waddle ran a route on 92% of his snaps and earned a 30% target share. Clearly, Brissett likes his speedy target, but Waddle only was a 2.8 aDot. Managers that need a solid flex option can look to Waddle and hope he finds the end zone. Until Tua returns, the Miami passing attack could be limited. DeVante Parker did see seven targets but was unable to make the big downfield play. Will Fuller could be an interesting option this week but managers will have to hope he gets a downfield target and hope he finds the end zone. IF managers have an option, sit Parker and hope Fuller can find the end zone.
A sneaky fantasy play could be Mike Gesicki. Brissett is limited and prefers the quick option, an ideal role for Gesicki who feasted in Week 3. This week Gesicki should see plenty of targets and is a solid option as a low-end TE1.
-Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77)