Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 3rd at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Betting Odds: CHI -3, 42.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff (Sit)
In last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Ravens, Jared Goff did enough for the Lions not to lose but was unable to do enough for the Lions to win. Goff was his usual, unexciting self as he completed 73% of his passes for 213 yards with nary a TD or INT to speak of. Now, I understand Goff is working with a less-than-stellar group of WRs, but his current Intended Air Yards per Pass Attempt is at a career-low 5.8 yards and his Completed Air Yards per Pass Attempt is an abysmal 2.3 yards. Goff simply doesn’t push the ball down the field and this severely limits his upside. Goff likely won’t do anything to lose a game, but don’t expect him to pull off any heroics to win a game either. Goff slots in as a low-end QB2 at best in leagues that allow for two starting QBs but will not see the lineup in most leagues in Week 4.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Start, Flex)
Fantasy managers who took a chance on D’Andre Swift as their RB2 or RB3 have been rewarded as Swift continues to post starting-caliber numbers despite the offensive deficiencies of the team. Before last week, Swift was routinely seeing 40-50% more snaps than Jamaal Williams but they were nearly even last week (35 snaps for Swift to 31 for Williams). Nonetheless, Swift has increased his production in each of the first three weeks and secured his first rushing TD of the season last week. Chicago has yet to hold an opposing RB to fewer than 71 total yards and Kareem Hunt, who has a sizable role in the passing game similar to Swift, carved them up last week to the tune of 155 total yards and one TD on as many snaps as Swift normally sees. On Wednesday, Sports Illustrated reported HC Dan Campbell as saying, “He could certainly be out there first play. He’s done enough to earn that.” (read the full article here) Swift has done enough the first three weeks to be considered an RB1 and fantasy managers should treat him as such this week.
Williams has seen 14 fewer opportunities (carries plus targets) this season when compared to Swift but has been productive enough to warrant consideration as a Flex option for fantasy managers this season. Williams has almost as many rushing yards as Swift and has two TDs on the year but has been less involved in the passing game. Because of this, Williams doesn’t carry quite the upside Swift does and, as such, is better served as a complementary piece to fantasy lineups as opposed to a featured piece. Williams could sneak into the lower part of the RB2 ranks this week, but I think that would require at least one TD and I’m not comfortable projecting Williams to score, so look at him as a viable Flex option in Week 4.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Quintez Cephus (Sit), Kalif Raymond (Sit), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Sit), T.J. Hockenson (Start, TE1)
Detroit elected to place Tyrell Williams on injured reserve late last week which opens the door for Quintez Cephus to see extended action in his absence. After a good Week 2 performance (7 targets, 4 receptions, 73 yards, 1 TD), Cephus promptly saw all of one target in Week 3 which he caught for eight yards. The biggest beneficiary in Week 3 was Kalif Raymond who saw a team-high 10 targets and lead the team in receiving yards (68) and was second in receptions (6). It’s anybody’s guess who might warrant an emergency start in Week 4 and, given the passing game involvement of the RBs and T.J. Hockenson, fantasy managers simply can’t trust any of Detroit’s WRs as reliable options. Even rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, who got some preseason hype, was only targeted once.
Hockenson has been as advertised early this season as he leads the team in receiving yards (173), trails only Swift in targets and receptions (22 and 18, respectively), and shares the team lead in TD receptions with Cephus at two. Hockenson continues to finish weeks as a TE1 and there doesn’t seem to be anything blocking his path to that level of production. Detroit figures to be an underdog in most, if not all, of their games this season which will continue to force the offense to lean on the passing game. Fantasy managers can set and forget Hockenson as their starting TE for Week 4 and beyond.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Justin Fields (Sit)
Man, what an underwhelming debut in the first start for rookie Justin Fields against Cleveland last week. Chicago was able to muster just 44 total yards and surrendered nine sacks to Myles Garrett and his cohorts. Fields was an abysmal 6-of-20 for 68 yards and, surprisingly, was able to generate just 12 yards rushing on his three attempts. For some, the majority of the blame for Chicago’s anemic offensive showing falls on the shoulders of HC Matt Nagy and his unwillingness to adapt the gameplan for the skill set Fields provides at QB. Fields should be ecstatic to see the Lions on tap for this weekend as he certainly will find more success against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Normally any QB facing the Lions would get at least a modicum of consideration as a starting option but Fields’s performance last week has to count for something. Perhaps he turns it around this week and does what we’ve all seen he can do while at Ohio State, but I can’t trust him enough to suggest starting him this week. In leagues with two starting QBs I’d be OK with him as a low-end QB2 option but fantasy managers in traditional one-QB leagues should not rely on Fields in Week 4.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Start, RB2), Damien Williams (Sit)
There aren’t very many “bell cow” RBs in the NFL anymore, but David Montgomery certainly fits the bill in Chicago. Montgomery dominates the snaps at RB for the Bears and dwarfs the rest of the roster in carries. Montgomery looked like a league-winner in Week 1, eclipsing 100 rushing yards and punching in a TD but it’s been downhill from there. Montgomery got more attempts in Week 2 (20) but mustered fewer yards (61) and was held out of the end zone. In Week 3, Montgomery got a mere 10 carries and could only compile 34 yards on those attempts. Montgomery has seen four targets in the passing game each of the past two weeks, which is encouraging for his upside. Again, the Lions can provide a tonic for all that ails an offense and Chicago is a slight favorite which could lead to some late-game carries for Montgomery. Montgomery has shown RB1 upside already this season but recent production indicates that might be a lofty goal regularly. Fantasy managers should be able to trust Montgomery as a solid RB2 this week.
Damien Williams was projected to inherit the role vacated by Tarik Cohen while he recovered from his ACL injury suffered late in 2020. However, Williams has seen his playing time reduce each week and hasn’t established himself as a viable part of the offensive game plan. In fact, Williams didn’t receive one carry or target in last week’s loss to Cleveland. Williams is nothing more than insurance against a Montgomery injury for fantasy managers and is not startable in any format in Week 4.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Allen Robinson (Start, WR3/Flex), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Marquise Goodwin (Sit), Damiere Byrd (Sit), Cole Kmet (Sit)
For the past two seasons, Allen Robinson was unquestionably one of the most reliable WRs in the NFL. Robinson exceeded 150 targets in both 2019 and 2020 but has been mostly uninvolved since Week 1 in which he saw 11 targets. Robinson has just four receptions on his 10 targets the last two games and didn’t hit 30 receiving yards in either contest though he did partially salvage his Week 2 day with a short TD. Perhaps a date with a very beatable Lions’ secondary will put Robinson back into the WR1 conversation but recent history suggests otherwise. Now, Marquise Brown was able to frequently get deep last week and dropped three passes that might have ended in the end zone, so a big day on fewer targets could be in the cards but I just can’t suggest Robinson as anything more than a WR3 or Flex option until he proves me wrong.
Darnell Mooney has locked down the WR2 role opposite Robinson for Chicago and has outperformed Robinson so far this season with 12 receptions for 101 yards. Mooney, like the rest of the offense, struggled mightily in Week 3 with just one reception on four targets for nine yards, but it’s good to see Mooney is not coming off the field as he’s seen 95.5% of the team’s offensive snaps. If the offense can come together against a weak Detroit defense, Mooney could provide some low-end Flex value but the questions surrounding how well Fields will perform at QB along with the potential for a more run-heavy approach if Chicago can build a lead drives me to recommend benching Mooney for at least this week.
Both Marquise Goodwin and Damiere Byrd have seen playing time in Chicago’s offense but neither has made much of an impact on the score sheet. Byrd has been more involved of the two, out snapping Goodwin in two of the first three weeks but neither has generated enough involvement in the offense to warrant fantasy consideration. Fantasy managers should avoid both Goodwin and Byrd as they will only provide fantasy value if Robinson or Mooney are forced to miss time.
It was a bit surprising to see the Bears bring back veteran Jimmy Graham for the 2021 season after how well Cole Kmet played at the end of last year. Chicago’s TEs haven’t garnered a ton of interest from fantasy managers in quite some time, but Kmet was an intriguing late-round option given his increased involvement as the 2020 season wound down. Kmet is still a part of the offense, trailing only Robinson and Mooney with 12 targets, but he’s been unable to generate much production after a decent five-reception game in Week 1. Graham’s presence pulls just enough production to keep Kmet’s fantasy production low. Kmet may become a viable option later in the season like he did last year, but for Week 4 fantasy managers would do well to seek out other options.