Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, October 4th at 8:15 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Betting Odds: LAC -3.5, 52.5 Total on Oddshark
Network: ESPN
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start)
Believe it or not, it is not Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady leading the league in yards so far, it is Derek Carr. In his career, the Raiders QB has never finished as a top-10 player at the position in fantasy but it is looking like a possibility for the first time in 2021. Having already thrown 136 passes, Carr looks to always have plenty of chances to put up points in a passing-focused offense. Having set a base level of consistency, between 22 and 25 points per game, he has shown to be an option that you can trust going forward. That said, the Chargers will not be an easy matchup. Their defense has given up the 7th least points to opposing QBs, despite already having played Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott. Week 4 will be a real test to see if Carr can keep up his level of consistency regardless of matchup, but based on what he has shown so far, he could be an important piece if you picked a QB late in the draft.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB2 if healthy), Peyton Barber (Start, RB2 if Jacobs out), Kenyan Drake (Sit)
A lot depends on the health of star RB Josh Jacobs for the Raiders this week. The former first-round pick missed the last two games through an ankle injury but Jon Gruden has stated this week that he is hopeful Jacobs will be back in practice. If healthy, he is almost always a trusted start after his excellent season in 2020 and his strong start to 2021, scoring 2 TDs in just 10 carries. Monday Night Football might give him just enough time to feel confident playing him in this game.
After the injury to Jacobs, the Raiders had looked like they were going to massively reduce their reliance on the run game. That was until Peyton Barber had a monster game against the Dolphins in week 3. The former Buccaneer rushed 23 times for 111 yards on the ground and a TD, along with an extra 31 yards receiving. Based on past history Barber cannot be expected to keep up that level of production, but that was about as good of a performance that anyone could realistically expect. A lot of it was down to the poor rush defense of the Dolphins, but if Jacobs is still out in week 4, Barber will get plenty of volume to work with, in what has been a high-scoring offense. The Chargers average giving up over 20 points per game to RBs so whoever is the lead back should be a good start.
Many had expected it to be Kenyan Drake stepping into the lead-back role after the Jacobs injury, but that has not been the case. The 27-year-old has not rushed for more than 24 yards in a game and is largely used as a receiver out of the backfield. His role is not likely to change if Jacob returns but that current role is not substantial enough to be a good asset in fantasy.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Hunter Renfrow (Start, Flex), Henry Ruggs (Start, Flex), Bryan Edwards (Sit), Darren Waller (Start, TE1)
The Raiders wide receivers have all been given such a similar level of production so far that it is a little hard to decide who is going to be their best option moving forward. Believe it or not, Hunter Renfrow has been their most productive receiver in PPR so far, racking up 16 catches for 204 yards and a TD over the season. The key to Renfrow has been consistency, gaining between 57 and 77 yards a game with at least 5 catches in all 3 of the first weeks. While he is not the most exciting option, Renfrow can be placed in your FLEX spot and you can relax in knowing that, at the very least, he should bring in around 10 points.
If looking for a player with a slightly higher ceiling, Henry Ruggs is another option. The former first-round pick has had a disappointing start to his career but he looks to have made a bit of a leap in 2021, already having put up over half as many yards as he did in 2020 in just 3 weeks. Ruggs’ biggest game was against the Steelers in week 2, where he racked up over 100 yards and a TD, but he put together another strong performance against the Dolphins. With at least 7 targets and 4 receptions in each game, the wide receiver is finally showing a bit of much-needed consistency and should again feature heavily against the Chargers.
The other young receiver for the Raiders, Bryan Edwards, is not far off the pace either. Edwards has put up over 80 yards in 2 of the 3 games and has the highest snap % of the three. That said, the second-year player is yet to have a game with more than five targets or four receptions and does not look like a red-zone target at the current time. He has lots of promise going forward, but Edwards is still an underwhelming option to start in your lineup in this game.
After starting with one of the most ridiculous TE performances in week 1, Darren Waller has been a bit quiet in the weeks since. That said, quiet for Waller is still at least 5fivecatches and over 50 yards so there is not much to be concerned about. I think expecting Waller to have any other 19 target games is now looking a lot more unreasonable, but it will not be long until he returns to have the monster fantasy games that are expected of him. The Chargers appear to be a good matchup too, already having given up over 200 yards and two TDs to TEs this year.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
If you needed it for whatever reason, the Chargers victory over the Chiefs was evidence that Justin Herbert is going to be a star in this league for many many years to come. Herbert had played well in the first 2 weeks but it had not translated to fantasy. That was not a problem in Week 3. The second-year QB put up four TDs and nearly 300 yards against the Chiefs, making him the 4th highest scorer in fantasy for the week, behind only Josh Allen, Mike Williams, and Davante Adams. The Raiders will be a tougher matchup this week but Justin Herbert has shown he has all the talent in the world, and that talent normally converts to fantasy points.
Herbert did hurt his hand in the win against the Chiefs, but it is expected to make a minimal impact by the time this game starts.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Larry Rountree (Sit), Justin Jackson (Sit)
We are not far into the season, but you can already be pretty confident from what we have seen so far that Austin Ekeler is going to have another monster season. Ekeler has scored at least 22 points in each of his last two games and the workload only appears to be growing, with his snap % growing each week. The key to Ekeler is his work as a pass-catcher, which creates a high floor from week to week, and this should be another game where he gets plenty of looks from Herbert. The further the season goes on it looks increasingly like Ekeler is the only significant factor in the Chargers backfield and therefore he should be starting every week, no questions asked.
It was once thought that Larry Rountree could have an impact on this backfield but his role has only gotten smaller since week one, rushing for only two yards off five carries over the last couple of games. Justin Jackson is in a pretty similar spot, with similar limited usage.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Mike Williams (Start, WR2), Jared Cook (Sit)
Often not quite getting the credit he deserves, Keenan Allen has been one of the best receivers in fantasy for a long long time. So far, it does not appear that 2021 will not provide any change to that. Already, in two out of the three games, Allen has over 100 yards and double-digit targets. As one of the best in the league for converting targets into receptions, this means a lot of receptions and a lot of fantasy points. Expect to find him once again in the 15-20 points range against a Raiders defense that will struggle to keep track of him.
Despite Allen’s decent performance in Week 3, he was still massively overshadowed by Mike Williams. As a Top-10 pick in 2017, Williams had always been a bit of a disappointing option in fantasy but the start of the 2021 season has him looking like the superstar that was once expected of him. Through 3 games Williams is the WR2 in the NFL, picking up nearly 300 yards and four TDs. An expectation for Williams to keep this kind of pace up all year is unrealistic but these are extremely positive signs for what is to come. What is good to know is that Allen’s performance is not affecting his viability either, as even in games where Allen is over 100 yards, Williams is still able to bring in big numbers. Due to his lower snap count, targets, and larger reliance on TDs, Allen should still be expected to be the better performer of the two over the course of the season, but Williams has shown he should still be starting week-to-week regardless.
The Chargers have a lack of other fantasy-viable options on their roster. Jaylen Guyton is the player who sees the 3rd highest amount of snaps, but has only seen five catches so far and failed to make any receptions last week.
The team uses Jared Cook as their starting tight end, but the veteran has made a limited impact in fantasy. The 34-year-old’s targets and receptions have decreased each week. He should be started only when other options are limited and is pretty TD reliant to put up a decent number of points.
Statistics courtesy of Fantasy Data.
-Patrick McAndrew (@PMcAndrewNFL on Twitter)