Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, September, 30th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Betting Odds: CIN -7.5, 46 Total on Vegas Insider
Network: FOX
Jacksonville Jaguars
QUARTERBACK
Trevor Lawrence (Sit)
It certainly hasn’t been the start to the season Trevor Lawrence was hoping for. This past draft’s first overall pick currently has a 45.5 PFF passing grade, is averaging just 5.7 yards/pass attempt, and has thrown seven interceptions in five games. Right now, the interceptions and poor play have turned him from a streaming candidate to a non-starter, and the Bengals rank in the top ten in PFF coverage grade currently.
RUNNING BACKS
James Robinson (Start, RB2), Carlos Hyde (Sit)
I’m a little worried that Carlos Hyde saw more of the rush attempts (31%) than he did in Week 2. I don’t expect the Jaguars to be as run-heavy as they were against the Cardinals, who own PFF’s lowest-graded run defense, but Robinson’s work in the passing game (15 targets) gives him a high floor. He also was the running back who got a carry inside the five-yard line, which could increase his fantasy potential further. Consider him a relatively safe bet as an “RB2” this week.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Marvin Jones Jr. (Start, Flex), DJ Chark Jr. (Sit), Laviska Shenault Jr. (Sit), Jacob Hollister (Sit)
By now, it’s pretty clear that Marvin Jones Jr. is the top receiver in Jacksonville. His 25% target share leads the team, as does his 32% air-yards share. Since the Jaguars have to pass so frequently due to them being behind in games, something Vegas is projecting again this week, that has meant eight or more targets in all three games this year. With such a high average depth of target (12.8) on top of that, he’s someone you can easily start in your Flex spot. DJ Chark Jr. as a deep threat and Laviska Shenault in the short passing game, meanwhile, each will have weeks where they are quality performers, but it’s not going to happen every week, and with this being projected to be a lower-scoring game, it’s hard to start them. What a change from where these three were being drafted!
Cincinnati Bengals
QUARTERBACKS
Joe Burrow (Sit)
I’ve seen Joe Burrow listed as a quality streamer candidate this week, yet I’m not quite as on board. The Bengals rank near the bottom of the league in neutral-down pass rate, as well as plays/minute. Thus, there isn’t much in the way of passing volume currently, with him attempting 30 or fewer passes in each of his three games this year, including just 18 last week. Without any rushing production, it’s going to be very hard for him to profile as a starter-worthy quarterback. Until Cincinnati is comfortable airing it out more, feel free to keep him on your bench, as sad as it may be.
RUNNING BACKS
Joe Mixon (Start, RB1), Samaje Perine (Sit), Chris Evans (Sit)
Through three weeks, Joe Mixon has 74 total touches, and isn’t stuck in a committee at all. This is a clear top-five/ten running back, and he now gets a favorable matchup in Jacksonville. With them being 7.5-point favorites, I’d expect 20+ rush attempts for Mixon, in addition to some goal-line carries as well. In simple terms, it’s all coming together for a major spike week (over 20 points) from the 25-year-old this week. He’s turning out to be a massive steal after being drafted in the second round in most fantasy drafts.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Ja’Marr Chase (Start, Flex), Tyler Boyd (Start, Flex), Auden Tate (Sit), CJ Uzomah (Sit)
I’m assuming Tee Higgins, who didn’t play on Sunday due to injury, won’t play on a short week. That being said, keep in mind that passing volume is a concern for the Bengals currently. Now, the Jaguars are a fast-paced offense, so they won’t have as low of a time of possession as they had against the Steelers last week, though neither top receiver profiles as a top-24 starter. Yes, even Ja’Marr Chase, who is unlikely to continue to score over a touchdown per game when he’s received just nine targets in his past two games. That being said, Jacksonville’s pass defense has been quite poor this year, and both still have noticeable touchdown upside, as well as less completion without Higgins; that profiles in a Flex spot, though Mixon will be the star of the show on Thursday.
All Stats via Pro Football Focus