Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 3rd at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Betting Odds: +7 NE, 49 total via Oddsshark
Network: NBC
Writer: Rick Graham (@iAmRickGraham on Twitter, @rg3pitcherlist on Reddit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady (Start)
Despite what he may say publicly, this is the game Tom Brady has been waiting for since the schedule was announced back in May. Add in the fact that he’s coming off a loss last week and Brady should be in for a huge game statistically this Sunday night. Despite the loss last week, Brady still put up 432 yards and a TD through the air and also added a rushing touchdown. Brady’s 10 TD’s currently lead the league, while his 1087 passing yards are second only to Derek Carr. He’s an easy must-start this week, and he should finish as a top 4-5 QB as he and the Bucs will look to run up the score in Foxboro this weekend.
RUNNING BACKS
Leonard Fournette (Sit), Ronald Jones (Sit), Giovanni Bernard (Sit)
The backfield is still Leonard Fournette’s as he out-touched Ronald Jones once again last week, albeit this time by only a 7-5 margin. I don’t feel great starting Fournette, but the Bucs should be in the lead for the majority of this game, and there is a chance he finds the endzone for the first time this season. I just expect Brady to try and do as much damage through the air as possible this week, limiting all of the running backs’ upside. Playing from behind for much of the game, Giovanni Bernard was actually able to lead this group in touches last week with nine catches on eleven targets. I’d expect the Buccaneers to be playing in front this week, and with Bernard dealing with a knee injury, I wouldn’t consider him outside of a desperation flex play.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Antonio Brown (Start, Flex), Rob Gronkowski (Start), Cameron Brate (Sit)
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were both able to take advantage of Tom Brady throwing the ball 55 times last week, as each went for 18+ fantasy points. Even if they are up by 28 points in the second half this week, I’d expect Brady to continue to throw the ball and run up the score so the volume should be there for both Godwin and Evans to finish at least in the WR2 range again this week. The revenge game narrative doesn’t just stop with Brady, as Antonio Brown is set to return this week and should make for a strong Flex play. Assuming Rob Gronkowski plays through his rib injury (it seems likely at this point), I’d consider him a virtual lock to finish with a touchdown this week as you just know Brady will try to force-feed him in the RedZone.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Mac Jones (Sit)
Rookie Mac Jones is coming off a three-interception game but he was actually a bit better than the stat line suggests. Two of the interceptions were not his fault, and he was facing constant pressure all game long as the Patriots early season offensive line struggles continued. Trent Brown should be back this week, which should help things immensely, but this Buccaneers front is still one of the better groups in the game right now. Jones is a promising young QB, but he’s not a fantasy option quite yet, and may never be this season.
Running Backs
Damien Harris (Sit), J.J. Taylor (Sit), Brandon Bolden (Sit), Rhamondre Stevenson (Sit)
The season-ending injury to James White is a huge blow to this offense, and it’s a bit surprising the team hasn’t added any depth at the position this week. Damien Harris will continue as the early-down back, but the game script could get out of hand again this week, leaving Harris with similar numbers to his week 3 output. With White out last week, Brandon Bolden led the backfield in snaps and he could again this week with the Patriots expected to play from behind most of the game. However, Bolden hasn’t done much with his chances and is mostly just trusted with pass protection duties. J.J. Taylor is the wild card this week, and if he can carve out a bigger passing game role with White out, may find himself in Flex territory moving forward. After being inactive the past two weeks, Rhamondre Stevenson should be active this week but likely won’t have much if any role in the game plan.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jakobi Meyers (Start, Flex), Nelson Agholor (Sit), Kendrick Bourne (Sit), Jonnu Smith (Sit), Hunter Henry (Sit)
While Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne have each had productive weeks this season, Jakobi Meyers remains the only safe week-to-week option here, and now has 29 targets on the year. He’s an easy start this week as a Flex option at the very least. Expecting a similar game script as last week, one of Agholor or Bourne is likely to have a nice game as well, it’s just difficult to predict which one. I’d consider both as boom or bust, desperation Flex options but with no bye weeks you likely have better options. The tight ends have gotten off to a slow start this season, but perhaps this is the week they finally break out? It’s definitely possible, as this Patriots offense will need to attack Tampa through the air to have a chance in this game. Coming off maybe the worst game of his career, hopefully, there’s nowhere to go but up for Jonnu Smith. Smith and Hunter Henry are in the TE2 conversation, but that’s about their ceiling for right now.