Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 3rd at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Empower Files at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: -1 DEN, 44 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77 on Twitter and Reddit)
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1)
Lamar Jackson led a late-game comeback last week and completed one of the nicest throws of the early season. Jackson had just seven carries last week, his lowest total since Week 4 of 2020. Expect that number to rise once again this week but one positive trend early this season is how much the Ravens are asking him to pass. Jackson is completing 71% of his passes, and taking plenty of deep shots. The team continues to use play-action and designed runs to free Jackson. Lamar is back on course to compete for the overall QB1 on the season. Jackson is a fantasy star and is matchup proof.
Running Backs
Ty’Son Williams (Start, Flex), Latavious Murray (Sit)
The Ravens backfield is trending to a weekly headache. Ty’Son Williams continues to lead the team in snaps, routes run and targets but his short down and distance snaps have decreased each week. Williams continues to see the field as the primary two-minute back. However, as the team nears the goal-line and in all short down and distance opportunities, it is Latavious Murray who is currently the main back. Devonta Freeman has also earned usage in his two weeks with the team. This backfield will be almost completely game script dependant for any back. When the team is forced to pass, Williams will gain value, and if the team is protecting its lead Murray and Freeman will carry the load.
This week Williams presents some upside in what looks to be a competitive game but he’s no more than a low-end flex. Murray can only be played if you need a back with a chance to score a couple of short-yardage touchdowns.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marquise Brown (Start, WR2), Sammy Watkins (Sit), Rashod Bateman (Sit), Mark Andrews (Start, Low-end TE1)
Last week Marquise Brown narrowly missed a massive game. Brown dropped three passes, each that could have resulted in a touchdown. One was a deflection but still, he had a good chance to come down with the ball. Two others were concentration lapses that he wishes he had back. However, Brown is getting open at will and fantasy managers should be encouraged by his usage and clear lead-dog status in the passing game. He’s an every-week WR2 with touchdown upside. Don’t even think about sitting him, if you can help it.
Last week Mark Andrews had his first 100-yard receiving game since Week 2 of 2019 but he did so on just seven targets. However, Andrews doesn’t need a ton of targets to produce as a back-end TE1, he’s done so 60% of the time since the start of 2020. The Broncos have been solid defending the position but that shouldn’t mean he belongs on the bench.
Sammy Watkins is playing plenty of snaps but is the third option in a low-volume passing attack. The team may also welcome rookie Rashod Bateman to the lineup for the first time, and that could change the playing time for all of the receivers after Brown. Until bye weeks start in Week 6, Watkins can’t be trusted as a reliable starter.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater (Start, QB2)
Teddy Two Gloves, Teddy Bridgewater, is playing well in leading the Broncos to a hot 3-0 start. Bridgewater looks like the same professional quarterback that he’s been since he entered the league, completing 81% of his attempts while mixing in deep shots. However, his pass-catchers are dropping like flies. Bridgewater is a solid starter in leagues that start two QBs but he doesn’t provide enough upside to lead a traditional fantasy lineup.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (Start, RB2), Javonte Williams (Start, RB2)
Early in the season both Denver backs, Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, have looked explosive. The team is splitting carries between the two backs almost 50/50. Last week Gordon received a carry from the 12 and nearly punched it in with a gorgeous run, but was stopped at the one. On the next carry, Gordon was stuffed at the line and the team subbed in Williams, who scored on a short one-yard gain on the next play. The Broncos will continue to split this backfield, and there is almost no difference in the type of opportunities each player is receiving. Both are solid RB2 plays this week, and at the very least each should be in your flex spot this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR3), Tim Patrick (Start, Flex), Noah Fant (Start, Low-end TE1)
In the last few weeks the Broncos have lost receivers to injury, first with Jerry Jeudy suffering an ankle sprain, then the news this week that deep threat K.J. Hamler will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. That means that the passing game will rely on Courtland Sutton as the lead dog for the time being, with veteran Tim Patrick operating as a boundary receiver opposite of Sutton. Last week Sutton had a quiet day but the team had the game well in hand and may just have decided to play things safe rather than target Sutton down the field. Sutton ran 94% of the routes last week but his aDot was 5.4 after a massive 21.4 number in Week 2. Expect Sutton to be a boom/bust option but he definitely belongs in fantasy lineups.
Patrick played nearly full-time and he has shown that he can produce when called upon. For now, he should be rostered in all formats and managers should be placing FAAB bids for him this week. He will be a valuable receiving option once bye weeks hit. At tight end, Noah Fant‘s breakout could be stifled by the presence of Albert O, Albert Okwuegbunam. Fant is running routes on 70% of the plays he’s on the field, which is a solid target for a tight end, and places him in low-end TE1 territory. Despite everything working against him, Fant is too talented to bench.
-Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77)