Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 3rd at 12:00 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Betting Odds: Buf -16/5, 47 over/under total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Josh Allen had a get-right game in week 3 against the Washington Football team. He comes into week 4 facing a slightly stronger defense in the Texans. What we all saw in week 3 was why Allen was drafted as one of the top 4 quarterbacks and was in the conversation for the first quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts. You and every Bills fan are hoping for a similar performance most weeks. The weapons for Allen are still there. They have avoided the injury bug so far. The great thing to see was Allen taking the rush from within the 5-yard line and not just handing it off to a running back. Allen’s rushing upside makes him a great fantasy start most weeks and even more so against a middle-of-the-road passing defense and a defense that just let Sam Darnold rush for two touchdowns.
Running Backs
Zach Moss (Start, RB2), Devin Singletary (Start, Flex)
Things have changed since week 1. In week 1 Devin Singletary was the main back and Zack Moss was inactive. Now it seems that Moss is the lead back and Singletary is getting rotated in. They are both getting a decent amount of carries. Week three saw 13 and 11 for Moss and Singletary respectively. The Texans have a poor rushing defense. They let the Jaguars duo of Carlos Hyde and James Robinson rush for 160 yards. They let the Browns duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rush for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns. Even the Panthers without Christian McCaffrey for most of the game rushed for 100 yards total as a running back trio. Moss has looked to be the better back averaging more consistent yards per rush than Singletary who has a big run in week 2 that pads his stat line. There isn’t much fear that the Texans will be scoring a ton of points in this game so the Bills will be relying on their backs to run out the clock. They are both good plays this week in fantasy.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Emmanuel Sanders (Start, WR3), Cole Beasley (Start, Flex), Gabriel Davis (Sit), Dawson Knox (Start, TE1)
The Texans actually have a decent secondary when it comes to covering wide receivers. They still don’t match up well against the trio of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Emmanuel Sanders. All three were a good start in week 3. Beasley’s lack of touchdowns is surprising considering he is leading the team in red-zone targets with 6. He is a risk for non-PPR leagues. Emmanuel Sanders had a great week 3 scoring twice. It is what his owners were hoping to see from him in this offense. He is actually slightly out snapping Diggs with an 83.85 compared to an 82.5%. His snaps more than make up for his low red-zone target numbers and the fact that the Texans will be sending safety help towards Diggs most of the game make him a great WR3 start with WR2 upside. Diggs is a must-start. Diggs has been a disappointment so far this year in terms of catches. He has only caught 59.4% of his passes. Last season he caught 76.5%. He also only has 1 touchdown so far. Dawson Knox has become an option in the offense and an option for fantasy owners. He has scored in the past two games. Both of those have come on red-zone targets. His snap percentage average is 72% which is great for a tight end. I think you can trust Knox to put up decent numbers. He won’t be a top 5 tight end if he doesn’t score but he will still get the volume to make him not hurt your team. The rest of the receiving options are sitting for now. Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie just arent involved enough to be more than a hope of a long bomb fluke TD.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
Davis Mills (Sit, QB3)
It’s been a rough introduction for Davis Mills into the NFL. First, he had the Panthers in week 3 now it’s the Bills D. Both of those teams rank in the top 5 for defense against quarterbacks according to CBS. Mills played fairly well in week 3. He completed 67.86% of his passes and managed a touchdown and no interceptions. The Texans coaching staff will be looking to build on the week 3 performance. Mills is going to be okay in the NFL and I’m stashing him in all dynasty formats if he is available. You just can’t start him this week. I expect the Bills defense to be keying in on Mills’ top weapons and forcing some bad throws with pressure. It will be interesting to see what the Texans do once Tyrod Taylor comes off IR in week 6 or 7. Tyrod could be worth an IR stash in a few weeks if you have room.
Running Backs
Mark Ingram (Sit, RB3), David Johnson (Sit, RB4), Phillip Lindsay (Sit, RB4)
Another week and another mess of a backfield. We again saw Mark Ingram get the most carries out of the three-headed backfield. The issue is the volume itself. He only got 6 carries which aren’t great for a “lead” back. He was also inefficient on those carries. It was against the top rushing defense but you still hope to see more than a long of 6 yards and more than 21 total yards on those 6 carries. You would have thought with a rookie quarterback in Mills, the Texans would have tried to run the ball more. The game script didn’t work out that way as the Panthers got up early. The same looks to happen this week against the Bills. David Johnson is basically droppable in fantasy. A disappointing outcome for someone I picked as a sleeper in the offseason. He is losing passing work and rushes to Phillip Lindsay. Lindsay does not look great on his opportunities.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Brandin Cooks (Start, WR2), Anthony Miler (Start, Flex), Nico Collins (Sit), Chris Conley (Sit), Jordan Akins (Sit, TE2)
Brandin Cooks continued to show he is quarterback proof. Against a tough Carolina defense and a rookie quarterback making his first start and limited time with that quarterback Cooks posted a stat line of 11 targets, 9 receptions, and 112 yards. Cooks will be getting Tre’Davious White most of the game. Cooks will still get his targets but I expect his reception numbers to be down this week. I do think this is a good sign for Anthony Miller. Miller had some draft buzz when he was taken by the Chicago Bears in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft. Since coming over in trade and recovering from injury Miller has 6 targets and 4 receptions with a touchdown in week 3. He seems to be the clear second target with Nico Collins out with injury. I think you can make the risky flex play this week. The Texans look to be behind and passing the ball much more than they did in week 3. Chris Conley, along with any other pass catchers are a sit. There isn’t enough target or skill at the quarterback position to go around for a third wide receiver. Tight end Jordan Akins is an interesting name. He’s a big body with 2 red-zone targets on the season. He could be a security blanket for Mills as he got 5 targets in week 3. I don’t think you can play him this week but don’t be surprised if he gets into the end zone and is a big waiver name heading into week 5.
– Dustin Ludke (Dunit13dl on Reddit)