Sit/Start Week 5: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Thursday, October 5th, 2023, 8:15 PM ET

Location: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland

Betting Odds: WAS +4.5, 43 O/U total via oddshark.com

Network: Prime Video

Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)

Chicago Bears

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields (Start, QB2)

Justin Fields had an amazing Week 4. He completed 80 percent of his passes for 335 yards, four touchdowns, and a pick. He also added four rushes for 25 yards. He cost the Chicago Bears the win but that’s not a fantasy stat that matters. The real question: was this a product of Fields finding his game or playing the dreadful Denver Broncos defense? I think it’s a combination of the two. Fields seemed like he was playing more instinctual football, and playing against a defense that can’t stop anything certainly helps. The would-be franchise quarterback draws another favorable matchup this week in the form of the Washington Commanders, who are giving up the 11th most points to quarterbacks and are ranked as the 16th-best team in coverage by PFF.com. It’s not as big of a smash start as last week, but with four teams on a bye, it might be wise to start him in hopes that his play last week was a turning point. Fields is a solid QB2 this week.

Running Backs

Khalil Herbert (Start, RB2), Roschon Johnson (Start, Flex) 

I have been a big fan of Roschon Johnson since I interviewed him at the combine; he’s a smart, vocal leader. However, I’ve been a Khalil Herbert truther even longer. I wrote about him before last season as a future breakout candidate. As much as some people want Roschon to take over the lead role, it just hasn’t happened and doesn’t look imminent. Herbert has out-carried him 41 to 22 and played almost twice as many snaps. Herbert has averaged 4.78 yards per carry and has drawn 15 targets, one shy of his career high (16 in 2021).

The Commanders’ fairly stout run defense is ranked as the league’s 9th best by PFF.com. However, while the ‘Manders can put up points, they don’t do so in bunches, so the Bears likely won’t be forced to abandon the run. In any case, Herbert and Johnson are both useful in the passing game, making them attractive options this week. Herbert should be able to get into the RB2 range, a place where he has been at least three out of the four weeks (the other was a near-miss). Johnson is a flex play this week; he’ll continue to see work due to his superior pass-blocking skills and impressive efficiency as a ball carrier and receiver out of the backfield.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

D. J. Moore (Start, Flex), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Cole Kmet (Start, TE1)

Newcomer D. J. Moore has been less than stellar so far in his time in the Windy City but things are starting to trend in the right direction. He has a two-game scoring streak and Justin Fields is showing signs of improvement, which means good things for Moore. The Commanders are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers. They have one excellent corner, Kendall Fuller who rates as the 5th best cover corner on PFF.com. I would assume that Fuller will spend the majority of his time on Moore. Fuller just held the Philadelphia Eagles’ powerful wide receiver duo to two catches for 15 yards, so I’m downgrading Moore to a flex play this week.

On the opposite side of the field, the Bears will find Benjamin St-Juste in two wide sets and rookie Emmanuel Forbes in nickel situations. They rate as the 40th and 100th best cover corners out of 110. This means that Darnell Mooney will probably have a long night. He draws St-Juste in two wide sets and will be followed by him when he lines up the slot, a position where he has run 73.9 percent of his routes. Mooney’s strength comes from stretching the field, which also means safety help in the form of Kamren Curl, whom PFF.com rates as the 17th best cover safety. I’m sitting Mooney this week.

With Chase Claypool being told to stay home, it looks like Equanimeous St. Brown is the next man up. Last week was his first action on the year and he doesn’t have a history of being anything other than a boom or bust option with a faint prayer of hauling in a deep touchdown. Sit him this week.

Cole Kmet will be an interesting option this week. The Commanders are giving up the least amount of points to the tight end position, but that may be a product of who they’ve played. Neither the Buffalo Bills nor the Denver Broncos utilize their tight ends well, but the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles have allowed tight ends to post TE1 numbers. With Mooney locked down and St. Brown running empty routes, a fair amount of targets will need to go to someone other than Moore. I think Kmet can be that guy, as evidenced by his finish as the overall TE1 last week. He was a big beneficiary of Fields’ monster game and established himself as a key part of Fields’ future success. Start him this week as a low-end TE1.

Washington Commanders

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell (Start, QB1)

Sam Howell is the perfect example of not letting one outlier control the narrative. Some glanced at the Week 3 matchup against the Buffalo Bills and the horrible day that Howell had and assumed that was how he’d play going forward. In reality, that game is the outlier to an emerging pattern of what Howell has been. In the other three games this season, the second-year passer has been a solid QB2 who has flirted with QB1 numbers. Howell has a chance to post his best game of the season in Week 5, as the Bears are giving up the 2nd most points to quarterbacks. Howell’s receivers are dealing with some minor injuries but it’s an offense that’s clicking right now. I’m willing to roll out Howell and I expect him to hit the QB1 range.

Running Backs

Brian Robinson Jr. (Start, RB2) Antonio Gibson (Sit, Flex)

I loved Brian Robinson coming into the season, partly because of his talent, and also the incredible story of how he came back from a gunshot injury and produced last season. I expected him to see volume in this Commanders offense, which has proven to be true so far. Robinson is averaging 4.28 yards per carry, and PlayerProfiler.com, he is 4th in Breakaway Runs (3) and second in Dominator Rating (38.4 percent). The volume has certainly been there: he has seen double-digit carries in all four games and is currently 12th overall in total carries. He now faces the Bears, who are giving up the second-most fantasy points to running backs. The game projects to be relatively close with the Commanders having a lead, which means they’re likely to rely on the run, giving Robinson a boost. Start him as a high-end RB2 this week.

The belief that Antonio Gibson would be the pass-catching back hasn’t worked out the way many people thought. Is he leading the backfield in targets? Yes, but only by three over Robinson. Gibson isn’t playing a ton of snaps; he has only one game with over a 60 percent snap share. I don’t see a great pathway for Gibson to be relevant. He isn’t being used enough, isn’t seeing high-value red zone carries or extensive usage in the passing game, and a negative game script in which the Commanders require Gibson’s deployment on the field is unlikely. I’m sitting him this week, even given the likelihood that he flirts with a finish in the flex range.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Terry McLaurin (Start, WR1), Curtis Samuel (Start, Flex), Jahan Dotson (Start, Flex), Logan Thomas (Sit, TE2) 

What is the deal with the Bears secondary, and how will Commanders receivers be affected? We start at the top with Terry McLaurin; he’s the alpha and right now the only fully healthy wide receiver. He has seen plenty of targets thus far. The Bears are giving up the 12th most points to wide receivers, which is solid, but certainly not a hindrance. I don’t know how the Bears aren’t giving up more considering neither of their starting corners rates higher than 84th best on PFF.com, but it’s fair to speculate that negative game scripts encourage opposing offenses to protect healthy leads by grinding down the clock instead. That said, this could be another stellar week for Scary Terry as we officially enter spooky season. Start him as a solid WR1.

Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel seem to be battling for the second position on the depth chart. They logged very similar snap totals last week and received the same number of targets. Even their lineup spots have been similar with both of them splitting time in the slot. Dotson is dealing with an ankle injury while Samuel is dealing with a thigh issue; if both play, they both have flex appeal. I like Samuel a little more since he has logged at least one carry in all but one game so far this year, an additional way for him to get the ball in space. Both Samuel and Dotson have favorable CB/WR matchups, so they should be able to produce even if opportunities are limited. Both are flex plays this week, but if one or the other misses, they’ll easily break into the WR3 range with WR2 upside.

Logan Thomas has been an enigma this year. Nothing about his play inspires excitement or happiness. The Commanders have excellent outside weapons and a solid running game, and tight ends don’t always thrive in those types of situations. Yet the nine-year veteran has performed well when healthy. He only has nine receptions on the year but hasn’t finished outside of TE2 range, flirting with TE1 territory most weeks. The Bears are middle of the road in terms of giving up points to tight ends, offering another matchup in which the boring, aging Thomas is startable. I expect him to turn in another solid TE2 performance this week, and he could end up higher than that if he scores. So far, he has held off Cole Turner, who had a good showing in Thomas’s absence, and is a promising young player who received a lot of buzz during the preseason. A healthy Logan Thomas could eventually become an every-week starter in this gross fantasy tight end landscape.