Sit/Start Week 5: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, October 8th, 4:05 PM ET

Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Betting Odds: CIN -3, O/U 44.5 via OddsShark

Network: FOX

Writer: Nick Beaudoin

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback

Joe Burrow (Start, High-QB2)

If you drafted Joe Burrow, your season has likely been off to a rough start. Entering Week 5 as an astonishing QB31 on the season, Burrow’s calf injury is clearly worse than he or the team let on, putting the Bengals in a tough spot with a 1-3 start to the season. I am always willing to bet on talent, and expect Burrow to bounce back to overcome a Cardinals secondary ranking eighth-lowest to opposing QBs, allowing 22.2 PPG. However, I am expecting the Bengals to have a very balanced attack this week, force-feeding Joe Mixon and operating Burrow off of play action, with short and intermediate passes. Cardinals’ HC Jonathon Gannon has his team playing competitively, keeping Burrow in the high-QB2 range this week.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon (Start, RB1), Trayveon Williams (Sit)

I love Joe Mixon this week. Mixon is not the explosive player he once was, but he is dominating the backfield with a 74% snap percentage, and is still averaging 11.6 PPG. He is being relied on as a three-down back, and is on the field in positive and negative game scripts. The Cardinals are bottom-three in the league against fantasy RBs, and coming in as -3 point favorites, we can expect the Bengals to rely on Mixon this week to take the pressure off Burrow. Mixon can be treated as a high-floor, high-ceiling RB1 against the Cardinals.

Trayveon Williams is averaging 12 snaps/game and has not been involved in any of the offensive game plans. This is Mixon’s backfield, and Williams is nothing more than a handcuff.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Ja’Marr Chase (Start, WR1), Tee Higgins (Sit, FLEX), Tyler Boyd (Start, FLEX), Irv Smith (Sit), Tanner Hudson / Mitchell Wilcox / Drew Sample (Sit)

The Cardinals secondary has played well above expectation this year, but Ja’Marr Chase is a generational talent, and you are starting him as a WR1 every week. The Cardinals were already lacking defensive talent, and with their best defensive player Budda Baker on IR, there is absolutely nobody who can stop Chase. Chase is already earning an elite 28.7% target share, and with Tee Higgins battling a fractured rib, his 10.25 targets/game should only increase this week. Start Chase as a WR1 with confidence.

Tee Higgins (ribs) missed the second half of last week’s defeat with two receptions on four targets for 19 yards. He has since told reporters that he “Isn’t able to sleep on his right side and can feel it when he coughs,” but when asked, he considers it a matter of pain tolerance and “Might be able to play.” I personally am skeptical. He expectedly missed practice on Wednesday, but we will have to monitor his status throughout the week. If he is on the field, he will likely be used as a decoy and will be a very low-floor, touchdown-dependent FLEX option.

If Higgins is unavailable, the greatest beneficiary will be Tyler Boyd, who has not been fantasy-relevant so far this season but is quietly averaging eight targets/game the past three weeks. We have seen Boyd excel in the right matchups before, and in a good matchup with Arizona, we can expect him to receive the same 5-8 targets as the defense tries everything in their power to take away Chase. This is good enough for FLEX consideration with WR3 upside, whether Higgins is available or not.

The product of plenty of offseason hype, Irv Smith has continued his injury-plagued campaign with the Bengals, missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. Smith was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, and being available in Week 5 would be great news for the Bengals, but with five receptions for 27 yards in his first two games, he still cannot be trusted from a fantasy standpoint. If Smith is unavailable, it will be the classic trio of Tanner Hudson, Mitchell Wilcox and Drew Sample. Hudson has been the snap leader (45%) and main passing-down option, but there is no clear standout, and none of them hold any fantasy relevance.

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterbacks

Joshua Dobbs (Start, QB2)

I love rooting for an underdog story, and this year that has been Josh Dobbs. Week 1 was a nightmare for the Cardinals offense, but since then, Dobbs has been the QB6 overall including two solid performances against top-tier defenses in Dallas and SF. The Bengals’ defense has been middling against QBs this year, coming in 18th-best in PPG to the position. There are holes for Dobbs to attack (which we will get to shortly), but the Bengals’ perimeter has been outstanding, not allowing a single touchdown to WRs on the season. Dobbs’ floor remains high as he is averaging 48 rushing yards/game the past three weeks, and as +3 underdogs, the game script favors another day of 30+ pass attempts, but I’m banking on Dobbs to come back to reality against the Bengals. You could do worse than streaming Dobbs this week, but you’re counting on him to make a few big plays with his legs, and an implied point total of 21 does not suggest a high-scoring day for the Cardinals.

Running Backs

James Conner (Start, RB2), Keontay Ingram (Sit), Emari Demercado (Sit)

James Conner continues to perform, coming into the week as RB16. Conner has a handle on this backfield and is operating as a three-down back, averaging 15.5 carries and 3.3 targets/game. A lot of Conner’s success is due to volume, but the Cardinals’ offensive line has played surprisingly well so far this season, most notably manhandling a stout Dallas defensive line in Week 3. The Bengals defensive line has underperformed this season, in the bottom half of the league in regards to PPG to RBs, allowing 122 yards on the ground to Derrick Henry last week. Conner is not Derrick Henry, but he is a safe RB2 this week against Cincinnati.

Keontay Ingram missed last week’s game with a neck injury, and we have not been provided an update since. This opened the door for UDFA rookie Emari Demercado, who received one carry for three yards, and three receptions for 21 yards. Neither one is an option for Sunday’s matchup, regardless of Ingram is active or not.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Marquise Brown (Start, WR2), Michael Wilson (Start, FLEX), Rondale Moore (Sit, FLEX), Zach Ertz (Start, TE1), Trey McBride (Sit)

Marquise Brown has returned to form due to the excellent play of Dobbs, entering the week as WR17. Brown is the No. 1 option in this offense, with a 98.8% route participation rate and 26.5% target share on the team. However, if there is one silver lining in the Bengals’ season, it has been their secondary, coming in 13th in PPG to WRs, and not allowing a single touchdown to a perimeter receiver. With that being said, the same argument could be made for the SF secondary, who just allowed seven receptions on 10 targets for 96 yards to Brown last week. Brown is a little risky this week due to matchup, but we can hopefully rely on a smart HC to create mismatches by lining him up in the slot and attacking the Bengals in the middle of the field, where they have been struggling. With favorable game script and guaranteed 7-10 targets, Brown is still a safe, high-floor WR2 option.

Third-round rookie Michael Wilson made himself a household name last week with seven receptions for 76 yards and his first two touchdown grabs, but he is still the second, or most likely third option on this offense at this point in time. He has quickly risen up in the coaches favor, and has officially surpassed Rondale Moore with a 68% snap percentage. If he is able to continue building his rapport with Dobbs, Wilson will be a good stash for the future, but this will be a difficult matchup against a solid Bengals’ perimeter this week. Wilson is a volume-based FLEX option, solely due to positive game script.

Rondale Moore has played 63% of the team’s snaps so far this season, earning just a 9.9% target share and entering the week as WR70. A former second-round pick, Moore is extremely talented and athletic, but has never performed up to expectations, and was not drafted by this new regime. If Wilson continues to emerge, we can expect it to come at the expense of Moore, who can be safely left on waivers this week against Cincinnati.

Zach Ertz has been left for dead, still providing consistent TE1 numbers, but for some reason riding the waivers in most leagues. The TE10 entering the week is yet to score a touchdown, but is averaging 7.5 targets/game in a surprisingly competent Arizona offense. The Bengals have been stout on the perimeter, but are currently ranked fourth-worst against TEs, averaging 9.0 PPG. Fire up Ertz as a TE1 this week, while Trey McBride remains a distant second option, playing just 41% of snaps so far on the season.

– Nick Beaudoin