Sit/Start Week 5: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, October 8th, 2023 1:00 PM ET

Location: Ford Field, Detroit Michigan

Betting Odds: DET +7.5, 44.5 o/u total via PFF.com

Network: FOX

Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback

Bryce Young (Sit, QB2)

I was surprised that Bryce Young played this past week. After suffering an ankle injury I thought the Carolina Panthers would take a more precautionary approach with their franchise quarterback. Young ended up not playing well, and I’m not sure if that was the ankle or just Young being young. Let’s face it: he has not even approached the high expectations of a first-overall pick. Young has a pair of touchdowns and interceptions apiece so far this season. He did miss a game, but this past week was the first time he threw for over 200 yards. He faces a decent Detroit Lions defense that ranks 14th best according to Pro Football Focus; that same defense has given up the 17th fewest points to quarterbacks so far in 2023. I expect the Lions to get out to an early lead and put the Panthers in a pass-heavy game script, but Young hasn’t impressed me so far. Even at 0-4, there is little to no chance that the Panthers turn to Andy Dalton to salvage the season, as the team is sure to give their not-yet-fully-healthy franchise quarterback a long leash given the draft capital they spent on him. Nevertheless, sit Young this week.

Running Backs

Miles Sanders (Start, Flex), Chuba Hubbard (Sit, Flex) 

I’m still very high on Miles Sanders despite his up-and-down season so far in fantasy. One appealing aspect Sanders offers is steady volume. He has over 10 carries in three out of four weeks. Even this past week, he saw 13 carries despite dealing with a groin injury. The Lions have a really stout run defense. They’re ranked 6th best by PFF.com and are giving up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to running backs. Another week removed from the groin injury, he should be able to offer more fantasy value than last week. If he can get 13 carries fresh off a groin injury, he should see more when healthier. Sanders also offers value in the passing game, as evidenced by 23 targets over the first four weeks of the season. Given the potential passing game script, I like Sanders to be a high-end flex this week.

Chuba Hubbard had a solid game in Week 4. Part of that was because of Sanders’s injury, and part of it was the opposing defense. This week’s matchup is much worse, so I believe Hubbard goes back to serving in a complementary role that lacks fantasy relevance. He does offer some pass-catching ability so he’s worth stashing in case Sanders’ injury flares up. He’s not startable this week but he’s worth a bench spot as a handcuff.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Adam Thielen (Start, WR2), DJ Chark (Sit, Flex), Terrace Marshall (Sit), Jonathan Mingo (Sit), Hayden Hurst (Sit, TE2), 

Is this a reinvention? A resurgence? A comeback? Whatever we call it, Adam Thielen has continued to produce. Thielen has served as the top receiver for the Panthers in both routes run and targets. He has been a security blanket for his young quarterback and a savvy veteran go-to option for an aging backup. His Week 5 situation requires monitoring, as Lions rookie defensive back Brian Branch suffered an injury Thursday night and is questionable to play. Branch rates as the 11th-best cover corner, so if he’s out, I expect Thielen to be able to find the open areas. Thielen’s experience and route running make him startable, regardless: he’ll be a solid WR3 if Branch plays, and a WR2 if he doesn’t.

DJ Chark normalized back to form in Week 4: a non-factor. Despite playing 92 percent of the team’s snaps he only saw three targets; he caught two of them for 28 yards. He now faces Cameron Sutton who rates as the 41st best corner. That alone is reason to not start a middling Chark, but the Lions have two really good cover safeties who rank in the top 35 (out of 89) in coverage. I don’t love that for the game plan that best suits Chark. He’s only really out there in three-wide sets. Add a tough matchup, his lackluster performance to date, and poor quarterback play, and he’s a definite “sit” this week.

Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo play a similar role. Both can be the outside guy across from Thielen on two wide sets. Mingo missed this past week despite being cleared through the league’s concussion protocol. Terrace Marshall played 63 percent of the team’s snaps and saw 10 targets. He caught nine for 54 yards but I fear that those opportunities will go away with Mingo coming back. They will see coverage most likely from Jerry Jacobs who only rates 89th out of 110 corners in coverage. It’s a great matchup, but I don’t know for sure which one will be “the guy.” I suspect the role goes back to Mingo, but Marshall might have shown enough to eat into those opportunities, rendering both useless for fantasy. I don’t love the idea of starting either this week.

If there is a week for Hayden Hurst to reward those who believed in him, it’s this one. The Lions are giving up the sixth most points to tight ends. I was all about Luke Musgrave last week and an injury derailed his good day, but the backups fared well. Hurst has been just so-so this year and hasn’t had more than three targets since Week 1. The Panthers’ other receivers are making strides and filling in possession roles that a productive fantasy tight end usually fills. However, it’s the first of many bye weeks, so Hurst might be a low-ceiling desperation play for some.

Detroit Lions

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff (Start, QB1)

One of the crazier (or coincidental?) stats in all of football are home-road splits for Jared Goff. Through four games this year, he has scored 21.47 fantasy points at home, but only 13.21 away from the Motor City. Last year, his totals were 21.72 (home) and 13.23 (away). In 2021, Goff’s first season in Detroit, the difference was smaller, but still present: 16.12 (home) compared to 12.25 (away). That was a season plagued with injuries and a new offense. In Week 5, Goff is home against the Carolina Panthers, who are giving up the 4th fewest points to quarterbacks but ignoring those home splits might be a mistake: Goff seems dialed in right now and gets another weapon back this week in the form of Jameson Williams. This only bolsters his ability to spread the ball around and find the right opportunity to attack the defense. Start Goff this week.

Running Backs

David Montgomery (Start, RB2), Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, Flex)

Many people are upset that Jahmyr Gibbs hasn’t taken over the league and ascended to the level of fantasy RB1, but that was never going to be his role. Taking Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft is an indicator to some that he should be “the guy,” but I argue that the 3-year, $18 million contract that the Lions gave David Montgomery in the “running backs don’t matter” era is proof that he is the guy, and the pattern of usage this year shows as much. In the three games he has played, Montgomery has outcarried Gibbs 69 to 22. A big chunk of that was the 32 carries from this past Thursday against the Green Bay Packers, but that only underlines the fact that his role is what it is. The Lions and Montgomery get to feast on the Carolina Panthers who are giving up the 4th most points to running backs. It’s a great matchup and given how the rushing volume has tilted to Montgomery, I’m starting him as a high-end RB2 this week.

Gibbs has been involved in the passing game and has out-targeted Monty 16 to 3. We saw back in Week 1 that Bijan Robinson did very well catching passes out of the backfield. None of Panthers’ starting linebackers are great in coverage and those are normally the guys assigned to running backs in coverage schemes. Gibbs should continue to be what he has been: a startable high-end flex play with upside if he scores.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, WR1), Jameson Williams (Sit) Josh Reynolds (Start, FLEX), Marvin Jones (Sit), Sam LaPorta (Start, TE2)

Remember when the book on Amon-Ra St. Brown was that he only saw volume because D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson were absent from the lineup? Oh, how that narrative has disappeared. ARSB has been the alpha Lion, and there are no challengers. The Panthers are giving up the 7th fewest points to wide receivers but St Brown won’t have an issue. He’s averaging eight targets a game and is splitting his time between the slot and outside nearly 50/50, evidence that the Lions are moving him around to create the best possible matchups. His snaps out wide will be most productive this week, as he’ll see Jeremy Chinn in the slot, who ranks as the 25th-best cover corner. None of the outside corners rate higher than 84th. Fire up Amon-Ra as a WR1 this week.

Jameson Williams had his gambling suspension reduced and will be back this week. The 2022 Round 1 pick has yet to show it on the field, but people who remember what he put on film in college point to the fact that he’s now more than a year removed from a catastrophic knee injury that took away most of his rookie season. Rust will be a factor as it has been a while since he has played, so even though he’s healthy, he could be on a snap count that would limit his upside in Week 5. That said, he has logged two touches in his NFL career, and both went for at least 40 yards. While he can still impress in a limited role, that kind of production is completely unsustainable.

With Williams back, it remains to be seen who will be the third man in the passing offense. Josh Reynolds has been playing more snaps and running more routes than Marvin Jones. The question: what will his snap share be in Week 5? Currently, it has been around the 75 percent range. Does that shift as he becomes a guy who only lines up outside in three receiver sets and allows St. Brown to move into the slot? Probably. He should see a healthy snap share this week as Williams gets eased into the game plan. Reynolds has been a flex play at best and only rises out of that range when he scores. There will likely be better flex options this week.

Rookie Sam LaPorta has been the guy that everyone expected Dalton Kincaid to be. He is playing on 80 percent or more of the team’s snaps and has seen at least five targets per game. The Panthers are giving up the 12th fewest points to tight ends so it’s not a great matchup for the rookie. In the Year 2023, a tight end only needs five points to be fantasy-relevant. I expect LaPorta to be there: even on limited snaps, Williams should pull coverage outside the numbers and open up the middle for LaPorta, who can be started as a solid TE2 with upside.