Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 8, at 4:25 PM EST
Location: U.S Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: KC – 5 O/U 53 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
What are we doing here? It’s a busy world, we all have a million things to juggle all the time, so let’s not waste each other’s time. You know what to do here. I believe in you. And you believe in Patrick Mahomes. We all do. That’s why he’s always starting for everyone, everywhere. Close your eyes and relax, this one is an easy street.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB2), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Sit), Jerick McKinnon (Sit)
Isiah Pacheco finally showed up last Sunday night with a critical performance in both aspects of the Chiefs’ offensive attack, combining for 158 all-purpose yards and one touchdown, by far his best showing of the year. He did so against a much-heralded Jets defense that has been performing more middle-of-the-road. On paper, that may offer a similar feel to this week’s matchup in Minnesota, currently ranked 15th in yards per game. However, while the math shows the Vikings are giving up an average of 111.3 ypg, that’s an incredibly deceptive number. The complete thrashing the Eagles laid on the Vikes in Week 2 (259 yards and all three of the touchdowns allowed) is disguising a front that has otherwise been fairly effective. To wit, they have allowed 69 yards to Tampa Bay, 30 to a depleted Los Angeles Chargers, and 83 last week to the Panthers (the fact that 41 of them came from Chuba Hubbard is mystifying. I can only assume the Vikings were in shock he was receiving so many carries and it took time to recover). All told this is going to be a tougher go for Pacheco this week, but his usage makes it clear he’s a key component in this year’s Chiefs as only one of two to show consistent involvement. Pacheco’s hustle and work ethic should leave your RB2 slot well-manned this week.
As complimentary pieces of the puzzle, the Less Successful Law Firm of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and noted fantasy bench exploder Jerick McKinnon are both still here. CEH hasn’t been a consistent factor outside of the outlier week against the hapless Bears when everybody was getting a turn, and he cashed in for cleanup, kicking that poor body when it was already twitching on the ground. Aside from that beatdown game, he topped out at six carries in Week 1 and has done little with his few opportunities since. Not coincidentally, that’s the same week Vulture McKinnon brought in two more scores through the air, then went back to hiding in the dark to lie in wait for the next opportunity to make Pacheco owners wail. I wouldn’t bother with either of them this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (Start, TE1), Rashee Rice (Sit, Flex), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Skyy Moore (Sit, Flex), Kadarius Toney (Sit) Justin Watson (Sit)
I could almost copy and paste the text for Mahomes and put it here for Travis Kelce, who’s the best at his position in the league. You’re not sitting him for any reason, EVEN though history will hold him accountable as an accessory to ruining this year by holding the door open for a horde of Swifties to come in, point at our sport, and prompt announcers to make the most painfully uncomfortable song references. This whole thing might kill Al Michaels this upcoming Thursday when he is forced to make sense of all this hubbub. Last week, that poor man talked about Joe DiMaggio and used the term ‘cockamamie Internet’ in the same studio break. Talking about Swift/Kelce could very well put him in a home. But we keep talking about it here because, well, it’s filling some space that is otherwise difficult to find treasure in when speaking of the other Chiefs receiving options.
It’s not that there’s a lack of talent in the wide receiver room; there’s certainly the promise of a better tomorrow with Rashee Rice, and Skyy Moore showed out a bit in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yet across the whole group, nobody is taking a leap out of the pack, so they’re all sort of in the same pile. Justin Watson was the most consistent the first three weeks, and that’s not necessarily a great compliment as he dinged the board with 2 for 45, 3 for 62, and 2 for 51, then dropped in a 1 catch for 5 yards performance against the Jets. Again, none of that is spectacular. As a Green Bay Packers fan, I wasn’t sure why Kansas City gave Marquez Valdes-Scantling that pile of money a year ago, and I’m still not sure why now. Meanwhile, Kadarius Toney should be thankful Chase Claypool exists so that he can conveniently not be remembered as the worst trade of the 2022 season. If I was thin at receiver due to the bye week, I might be talked into throwing Rice or Moore into a flex spot and crossing my fingers, but that’s more because I see the potential, not proven performance. This team is good at winning, but so far there’s not enough separation from any of these receivers to be playing them regularly. Ha! ‘Not enough separation’. I’m kinda proud of that.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (Start, QB1)
Last week he was just a trash fire against the Carolina Panthers: 12 for 19 for 139 yards and 2 picks, and he STILL gifted his fantasy managers two touchdowns. A pretty awful fantasy play aside from those scores, but they were poetic from a performance in which Kirk Cousins played like everybody thinks he does, rather than how he actually does. Prior to that drubbing, Kirk ran off three consecutive weeks of around 350 yards and two or more touchdowns (four against the Eagles!). The KC pass defense is tough, but I like Kirk to rebound from last week’s downer and return to that QB1 lock he’s developed into the past couple of seasons. Nothing against a nice underdog story, but come on man, Zach Wilson was starting to deal on the KC defense pretty effectively. Cousins has better artillery at WR2 and tight end, and he is roughly a good thousand percent better passer than Wilson. I think this game has the potential to advance to the much-lauded ‘shootout’ stage (and the 53 Over/Under says some people in the desert might think so, too). While he doesn’t always win those, our boy Kirk at least goes down swinging. Sometimes from his back, but swinging, nonetheless.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison (Start, RB2), Cam Akers (Sit)
I was pretty sure when Minnesota dealt for Cam Akers, a perennial malcontent guy who just needed a fresh start, that the incumbent starter’s days as a semi-viable option in both fantasy and the NFL were a brief experiment coming to a quick end. Turns out, maybe just having Akers in the general vicinity of a locker room instantly and drastically improved all runners, especially Alexander Mattison. In the two weeks Akers has been a Viking, only one as an active game day contributor, Mattison has turned in 93 and 95-yard days at the office, averaging first 4.7 yards per carry against the San Di- –uh, Los Angeles Chargers, and 5.6 ypc versus the Panthers. There is an opportunity to run on Kansas City here, maybe not a ton, but their average of 104 per game allowed sits pretty consistent across the whole month. Even during the blowout of the Bears in which the Khalil/Roschon combo put up 69 on the ground, complimented by an additional 47 from Justin Fields. I like Mattison for a low-end RB2: it’s still not a spectacular matchup, but I like how Mattison is responding to the pressure. Akers meanwhile kicked in an additional 40 yards on just five carries (and had 2 receptions for 11 yards). This isn’t the split situation I thought it was guaranteed to be when that trade went down, and as long as Mattison keeps producing, it’s not going to become one either. While Akers is serving a purpose on this team, he doesn’t for fantasy at this juncture.
Wide Receivers/ Tight End
Justin Jefferson (Start, WR1), Jordan Addison (Start, Flex), K.J. Osborn (Sit, Flex), TJ Hockenson (Start, TE1)
For the third time in just this preview, stop pretending you’re even considering what we have to say about a player. Yep, it’s time for Justin Jefferson‘s entry. Set and forget. Move forward. On to T.J Hockenson, who even in a short span in Vikings purple is walking evidence of an absolute heist performed on Detroit last year. Hockenson leads all tight ends in the league in both targets (31) and receptions (25, tied with Evan Engram), and he’s added a pair of touchdowns in there as well, locked in a five-way tie for 2nd in that category. Lock in the man with the locks.
While he fell off the face of the earth last week with a solid zero receptions on one target, I still like Jordan Addison in a flex play, particularly on a bye week, particularly in a match that has a good shot at turning into an air war. Addison’s usage was fairly consistent until last week; he saw between five and eight targets in each of the first three weeks, catching around two-thirds of those. I would view last week as the anomaly rather than the start of a disheartening reduction in time. Addison is a part of the future, and if Minnesota is going to turn around a disappointing season so far, the rookie will be a part of that reversal of fortune. On the other hand, K.J. Osborn and his 8 total catches for 117 yards (most recently 1/3/36 and 1/2/16 entries from the Chargers and Panthers games) does not generate enough attention or statistical success for fantasy consideration.
How is LaPorta a TE2? Doesn’t that mean you have him ranked between TE 13+ for the week? He’s a surefire TE1 every week at this point. Who are the 12 TEs you’d put above him week 5?
no ranking him as a TE2 means we expect between 5-10 points in a PPR league
Okay so there are 2 TE1s in the nfl?? Then a handful of TE2s and 100 TE9s? Got it
Maybe you need to adjust your ranking to encompass the ever devolving role that TEs play in this iteration of the NFL
this year if you went just linear. there would be between 40-48 TE1s and the same for TE2. depending on if its 10 or 12 teams leagues.
so far based on our ranges there have been 44 TE1s and 67 TE2s. so while TE2 has produced a higher rate we are confident that it will balance out
last season there were a total of 221 TE1s (shroud be 216 based on a linear list) and 249 TE2s
Joe, thank you for taking the time to comment! Classifying someone as a “TE1” sets an expectation of meaningful production. Lowering the threshold basically means we’d be offering false hope when in reality, only a handful of tight ends consistently produce meaningful contributions to fantasy lineups.
Delineating a “Top 12” tight end group matters even less when so few are true difference-makers at a position that’s essentially a low, flat wasteland in terms of production. Case in point: Tyler Higbee was TE12 with 8.9 fantasy points. Fewer than 2 points separated him from Mo Alie Cox, the TE7…and fewer than 2 points separated Higbee from Hunter Henry, the TE19.
I appreciate the thoughtful suggestion, though. Thanks for reading!
Ranking DJ Moore as a flex for him to drop 49 ppr points is crazyyyy