Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 1st, 4:25 PM ET
Location: Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: Den -2, 43 total via Draft Kings Sportsbook
Network: CBS
New York Jets
Quarterback
Zach Wilson (Start, QB2)
Zach Wilson had his best game of the season last week against the defending champ Chiefs. Like a kid who gets that extra juice from having his dad in the audience, Wilson thrived with Rodgers looking on from the press box. Wilson logged a QB14 performance with 245 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 71.8% of his passes. Now I’m not saying start him rest of season, I’m bold but not insane. This week though might be the juicy matchup that you’d like to put Wilson in the lineup. The Broncos have allowed the most points to opposing QBs in 2023 (25.3 ppg). They have also just recently allowed a former first-round pick from the same class to go off. Just saying!
Running Backs
Breece Hall (Start, RB1), Dalvin Cook (sit)
Breece Hall is a guy in this league, but he’s been held back by his team’s lack of offense since Week 1. After going off for 147 yards in his first game post ACL surgery, he’s since barely mustered up 105 yards in Weeks 2-4. The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy ppg to the RB position (38). After their dismantling by the Dolphins, the Broncos continued to struggle when stopping the run, allowing 171 rushing yards to the Bears. So go ahead and start Hall this week. Dalvin Cook has looked more like Dalvin Cooked. After Cook went for 59 yards in the first week, it would take him the next three weeks to once again put up 59 total yards. Don’t start Dalvin Cook.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR2), Allen Lazard (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Sit)
Garrett Wilson currently has a crazy 32.7% target share, wish Aaron Rodgers was there to see it. All the Zach Wilson stuff aside, Garrett has 225 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 catches. He’s also got six red zone targets, which is seventh in the league. Wilson has been a top -24 WR in two of four weeks and should produce yet again versus a beaten-down Broncos defense. Allen Lazard put up WR21 numbers with three catches, 61 yards and a TD. Lazard has been pretty dormant this year and was brought in for his chemistry with Rodgers. That being said its hard to imagine a situation where you would think about starting Lazard. Tyler Conklin has been a familiar target for Wilson, getting 5+ targets in the last three weeks. I don’t know if I’ll ever feel comfortable starting Conklin, but he’s not a bad last resort.
Denver Broncos
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (Start, QB2)
“Mr. Unlimited” pulled together a second-half comeback last week against the Bears. Putting together a day with 223 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 Ints, while completing 75% of his passes. Currently ranking as the QB9, Wilson has turned back the clock on the catastrophic meltdown of a 2022 season. He’s top-10 in deep ball attempts (16) with a completion percentage of 37.5. Russ is also cooking in the red zone with the fifth most pass attempts (20) and the ninth-best completion percentage (65). Week 5 presents an interesting matchup for Russ, the Jets have allowed the 12th fewest fantasy ppg to QBs (13.8). The one thing thats for certain when facing the Jets, they will force turnovers with six total over the first two games. Last week they gave Patrick Mahomes trouble taking away the ball twice and holding him to 203 yards and a TD. The Jets also forced Josh Allen to throw three interceptions. Russ has been really protective of the ball this year with only two interceptions to his nine touchdowns. Temper expectations but still wheel out Wilson as a QB2.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Sit), Jaleel Mclaughlin (Sit), Samaje Perine (Sit)
Javonte Williams is currently dealing with a hip flexor injury that as of Wednesday has kept him sidelined during practice. While Javonte hasn’t been a world-beater this year with 189 yards and 0 TDs on 49 touches, this game was looking like an opportunity to turn it around. The Jets as a team haven’t been the same since Aaron Rodgers went down, but on defense they just allowed Isiah Pacheco to rush for 115 yards and a TD. In the previous week, they allowed Ezekiel Elliot to rush for 80 yards. Jaleel McLaughlin had a big opportunity and took it last week, scoring his first touchdown while going for 104 yards on 10 touches. If anything, he’s at least carved out a role as a receiving back in this offense going forward. Samaje Perine has not made an impact yet this year and is ready to take over for Javonte if needed. I think he’s more than likely going to be the lead back if Javonte sits but that could be a maybe that goes right down to the wire. There’s an opportunity for this to be a good game for a Broncos RB, but we just don’t know who it’ll be, so monitor the situation and start the lead back.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR3), Jerry Jeudy (Sit), Marvin Mims (Sit)
Jerry Jeudy has not performed well at all this season. I don’t know if it’s his hamstring injury or if he just hasn’t recaptured that late-season fire that he had in 2023. It’s worrisome to see him only get 70% snap share in one of three games. I think this team hasn’t viewed him as someone they need to get involved in this offense and it’s shown with his lack of red zone targets (1). Jeudy might see a lot of Sauce Gardner this week and so far that’s panned out for no receiver. Proceed with caution and sit Jeudy this week. Courtland Sutton has been the man this year with a team-leading three touchdowns. Sutton also leads the teams with a 23.3% target share and seven red zone targets (3rd best in the NFL). I would say just start Sutton as a WR3/flex this week just because of his touchdown upside. Marvin Mims is an interesting play nearly every week because he returns the ball as well as boasting an average of 26.9 yards per reception. So far Mims has nine catches for 242 yards and a TD, but being the deep threat on the team has its drawbacks. Last week after back-to-back top-24 weeks, he finished WR55. This and the fact that predicting him to either score on two targets or take a kick return back to the house sounds a little too volatile for me. Makes Mims a sit this week for me.
-Justin Herrera (@semtexmex93 on Twitter)
How is LaPorta a TE2? Doesn’t that mean you have him ranked between TE 13+ for the week? He’s a surefire TE1 every week at this point. Who are the 12 TEs you’d put above him week 5?
no ranking him as a TE2 means we expect between 5-10 points in a PPR league
Okay so there are 2 TE1s in the nfl?? Then a handful of TE2s and 100 TE9s? Got it
Maybe you need to adjust your ranking to encompass the ever devolving role that TEs play in this iteration of the NFL
this year if you went just linear. there would be between 40-48 TE1s and the same for TE2. depending on if its 10 or 12 teams leagues.
so far based on our ranges there have been 44 TE1s and 67 TE2s. so while TE2 has produced a higher rate we are confident that it will balance out
last season there were a total of 221 TE1s (shroud be 216 based on a linear list) and 249 TE2s
Joe, thank you for taking the time to comment! Classifying someone as a “TE1” sets an expectation of meaningful production. Lowering the threshold basically means we’d be offering false hope when in reality, only a handful of tight ends consistently produce meaningful contributions to fantasy lineups.
Delineating a “Top 12” tight end group matters even less when so few are true difference-makers at a position that’s essentially a low, flat wasteland in terms of production. Case in point: Tyler Higbee was TE12 with 8.9 fantasy points. Fewer than 2 points separated him from Mo Alie Cox, the TE7…and fewer than 2 points separated Higbee from Hunter Henry, the TE19.
I appreciate the thoughtful suggestion, though. Thanks for reading!
Ranking DJ Moore as a flex for him to drop 49 ppr points is crazyyyy