Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 8th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens Florida
Betting Odds: MIA -11, 49.5 total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
New York Giants
Quarterback
Daniel Jones (Start, QB2)
We’ve seen the good, the bad, and the ugly from Daniel Jones this season. It’s been mostly the bad and the ugly, but hey, he had a great fourth quarter against Arizona I guess, right? The offensive line has been a revolving door, the receivers are almost impossibly unproductive, and the offense looks like it belongs in the Big 10. I don’t mean to pick on you Giants fans, but it’s the truth. As a Patriots fan, I can relate in the most painful way. The silver lining is that Jones still has great mobility and has only failed to top 40 rushing yards once this season. The Dolphins have also allowed the third most fantasy points to the quarterback position this year. This all adds up to Jones being a decent but unexciting QB2 option.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Out), Matt Breida (Sit)
Saquon Barkley is not expected to play. Matt Breida is a low-end flex at best, but there are likely better options.
It’s been a couple of weeks since we’ve last seen him play, but it appears that Saquon Barkley will suit up against the Dolphins. It is completely fair to question his usage and effectiveness while playing on an ankle which may not be fully recovered, but starting him is a gamble worth taking. Brian Daboll needs to find a way to get this offense going, and Saquon Barkley is the most logical way to do so. He is the engine that makes this offense go, and the Dolphins have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to running backs this season. If he does indeed play, he is a risky but worthwhile RB1 against Miami.
Matt Breida is an obvious sit if Barkley does in fact go, but he is only a flex option at best even if Barkley is unable to play. Breida has averaged under three yards per carry this season and isn’t nearly talented enough to overcome the lack of talent around him. He is simply a last-resort handcuff.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Darius Slayton (Sit), Isaiah Hodgins (Sit), Parris Campbell (Sit), Darren Waller (Start, TE1)
Above I listed the three receivers who have played the most snaps for the Giants this season, but the reality is you should sit any and all of them including Wan’Dale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, and Sterling Shepard as well. Darius Slayton is the only one who has even played 60% of offensive snaps, and he still only has eleven receptions through four games. This passing offense is absolutely dreadful, and none of these receivers should start regardless of the matchup. It is possible that one of their younger receivers like Wan’Dale Robinson or Jalin Hyatt gets more involved as the season goes on and ends up being fantasy-relevant, but we certainly aren’t there yet. Stay as far away as possible from all of these WRs.
Off-season addition Darren Waller has been somewhat of a disappointment so far and has only topped 40 receiving yards once through four games. However, options are slim at the tight end position and there are few that offer the same upside as the former Raider. The Dolphins have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends this season, and Daniel Jones may need to target Waller downfield frequently in order to keep up with the Dolphins. The floor is lower than many in the fantasy community thought it would be, but the ceiling is high enough to make Waller a TE1.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB1)
Last week, Tua Tagovailoa came back down to earth a bit in Buffalo against a formidable Bills defense. He is still averaging over 325 yards and two touchdowns per game though in Mike McDaniel’s high-powered speedy offense. This week, Tagovailoa faces off against a Giants defense which is ranked as the fourth worst in coverage by PFF. This is a beautiful bounce-back spot for the fourth-year quarterback, and he should be an easy start at the QB1 spot.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane (Start, RB2), Raheem Mostert (Start, Flex), Jeff Wilson Jr. (Sit)
For the second week in a row, De’Von Achane has found the end zone multiple times and miraculously averaged over ten yards per carry. The rookie out of Texas A&M looks like the real deal, and his speed makes him the perfect fit for Mike McDaniel’s offense. Against the Bills, Achane out-snapped veteran Raheem Mostert 39 to 28 and out-touched him eleven to ten. There is still a committee in Miami, but Achane seems to be slowly taking over as the top running back in this exciting offense. The Giants have the sixth-lowest-graded run defense by PFF this season, and the Dolphins may be running the ball a lot if this game gets out of hand quickly. All signs point to Achane having a big day, but volume is still a concern with Mostert regularly involved. The lack of workhorse usage from Achane takes him slightly out of the RB1 conversation, but he is still a great RB2.
Raheem Mostert may be losing his grip on the 1a spot in this backfield, but he is still involved enough in this electric offense to warrant starting consideration. He’s been efficient while averaging over five yards per carry on the season, and he should get a decent workload against the not-so-intimidating Giants’ defense. He doesn’t quite have the RB1 upside that he showcased earlier this season, but he is a nice flex option. Miami’s other former 49er running back, Jeff Wilson Jr., *may* return from IR this week. Regardless, he will likely be eased back in slowly and will be the distant third option behind Achane and Mostert. Until he is proven to be fully healthy and involved in the offense, he is an easy sit.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR2), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit)
I shouldn’t have to convince you to start Tyreek Hill as your WR1 if you have him on your team, but let me tell you why you should feel extra confident doing so. Cheetah is averaging ten targets and 117.5 receiving yards per game. Against bottom ten pass defenses this year as determined by PFF (LAR and DEN), Hill is averaging a ridiculous 37.6 fantasy points per game. The Giants are also a bottom-ten pass defense. Furthermore, PFF ranks Hill’s matchup as the fifth most favorable of the week out of all NFL wide receivers. He is set up for success in a major way on Sunday.
Jaylen Waddle has yet to experience the same success as Hill this year in his three appearances. Don’t panic though. Waddle is too talented and in too good of an offense to consistently have disappointing games. He is bound to explode at some point, and this week is as good of an opportunity as any. He should get the chance to rip off chunk plays against a weak defense that will likely be keying in on Hill and the running backs. Waddle is a high-ceiling WR2.
The third receiver on the team, Braxton Berrios, had a surprisingly productive day against the Bills. Don’t be fooled though. He is playing under 50% of offensive snaps and doesn’t get manufactured touches like the other weapons do. The touchdown last week inflated his fantasy numbers, but he is still ultimately a bench receiver at best.
Like Berrios, Durham Smythe is not involved enough in the offense to be considered for your starting lineup. It also doesn’t help that he only has PFF’s 24th-best matchup advantage at the tight end position this week and will likely be drawing coverage from Isaiah Simmons who has PFF’s sixth-highest coverage grade among linebackers this season. Stay away from Smythe.
How is LaPorta a TE2? Doesn’t that mean you have him ranked between TE 13+ for the week? He’s a surefire TE1 every week at this point. Who are the 12 TEs you’d put above him week 5?
no ranking him as a TE2 means we expect between 5-10 points in a PPR league
Okay so there are 2 TE1s in the nfl?? Then a handful of TE2s and 100 TE9s? Got it
Maybe you need to adjust your ranking to encompass the ever devolving role that TEs play in this iteration of the NFL
this year if you went just linear. there would be between 40-48 TE1s and the same for TE2. depending on if its 10 or 12 teams leagues.
so far based on our ranges there have been 44 TE1s and 67 TE2s. so while TE2 has produced a higher rate we are confident that it will balance out
last season there were a total of 221 TE1s (shroud be 216 based on a linear list) and 249 TE2s
Joe, thank you for taking the time to comment! Classifying someone as a “TE1” sets an expectation of meaningful production. Lowering the threshold basically means we’d be offering false hope when in reality, only a handful of tight ends consistently produce meaningful contributions to fantasy lineups.
Delineating a “Top 12” tight end group matters even less when so few are true difference-makers at a position that’s essentially a low, flat wasteland in terms of production. Case in point: Tyler Higbee was TE12 with 8.9 fantasy points. Fewer than 2 points separated him from Mo Alie Cox, the TE7…and fewer than 2 points separated Higbee from Hunter Henry, the TE19.
I appreciate the thoughtful suggestion, though. Thanks for reading!
Ranking DJ Moore as a flex for him to drop 49 ppr points is crazyyyy