Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 8th, 8:30 AM CDT
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Betting Odds: BUF -4, 47.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: NFL Network
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (Start, QB1)
So far this year, Trevor Lawrence has not lived up to the hype that surrounded him all off-season. Through four games, Lawrence is underperforming by a large margin, averaging 14.5 PPG. The upside is still there, and we know Lawrence can turn things around.
Even though Lawrence hasn’t been great, there should be a ton of passing volume this week for the Jaguars. Not only are the Bills four-point favorites, which should force Lawrence to throw the ball, but the over-under is a staggering 47.5.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr. (Start, RB1), Tank Bigsby (Sit)
So far this year, Travis Etienne has been a hit-or-miss player on his way to averaging 13.9 PPG. The Falcons did a good job stuffing Etienne in the run game, but he’s still the clear lead back going forward. Etienne saw 56 snaps compared to Tank Bigsby, who only had eight last week. That said, we saw Etienne dominate in Week 3 with 17.8 points and 4.6 YPC. This elite-level volume makes Etienne a must-start, especially in a high-scoring contest.
Tank Bigsby is someone you shouldn’t be playing anytime soon. The only way he’ll become fantasy-relevant is an Etienne injury. Bigsby was a third-round pick, but even if he does make an impact, it won’t be until later in the season. As mentioned above, Bigsby is seeing an extremely low level of snaps, which won’t be changing in week five.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Calvin Ridley (Start, WR3), Christian Kirk (Start, WR3), Zay Jones (Sit), Evan Engram (Start, TE1)
After a red-hot start, Calvin Ridley has repeatedly disappointed for the past few weeks. This Jaguars offense has been very bad with a struggling Trevor Lawrence, and Ridley has seen his targets drop every game. For whatever reason, Lawrence isn’t feeding Ridley like he was for the first two games.
We know the talent is there, and Ridley has the upside to go nuclear on any given week. If Ridley is going to get back on track, it will be in this high-scoring game against the Bills.
Ever since Zay Jones has gone down, Christian Kirk has been amazing. After Week 1, Kirk scored 1.9 points but now he’s up to 13.9 PPG. There is some concern as Kirk has only seen a spike in production after he took over Jones’s role. That said, with how good Kirk has looked and the fact that Jones is coming off an injury, I expect Kirk to get a ton of snaps this week.
Coming off an injury, Zay Jones is a player I want to sit and see the production first. While early in the season, it looked like he was the number two receiver on this offense, Kirk has looked fantastic in Jones’s absence. Even though Jones should be a viable flex play for the rest of the season, I’m not starting him fresh off an injury.
Evan Engram has arguably been the best fantasy asset of this receiving core so far. In his first four games, Engram is averaging 12 PPG from the tight end position. Due to how weak the tight end position is, Engram is crushing it. You should be starting Engram this week and every other week in the future with confidence.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
After Week 1, Josh Allen has dominated fantasy football and is currently averaging 22.6 PPG. Before the season, Allen was being drafted as a top-three quarterback, and for good reason. Not only is he a great quarterback, but he has a ton of rushing upside. You should be starting Allen every week, but you can expect him to go nuclear in what should be a Week 5 shootout.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit)
James Cook had a hot start to the season but has slowed down after his 19.9-point performance in Week 2. Cook is still averaging 14.5 PPG on the season, but seeing him only record 13 touches last week is concerning. Even with these concerns, he’s an RB2 going forward.
I want the most talented pass-catching back in a high-scoring game. While Latavius Murray had more receptions last week, I trust that Cook’s talent will win out going forward.
Murray has had a few games above nine points this season, but he’s still not startable. Murray had six touches in Week 4, which should never equate to fantasy relevance. Unless Cook gets injured, Murray is not a viable starter.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, Flex), Dalton Kincaid (Sit), Dawson Knox (Sit)
Stefon Diggs exploded for 36 points in Week 4, which should surprise no one. We all know how good Diggs is, and there’s no reason you shouldn’t be playing him every single week. Diggs is primed for another massive week in a game where the over/under is 47.5 points.
While Gabe Davis truly is a boom-or-bust type of player, I’m throwing him into my lineup this week. As I’ve mentioned in this article, this game should be a shootout, and I want as many pieces as I can possibly get from this game With a guy like Davis, who has the potential to go nuclear every week, he should be in your lineup this week due to the incredible touchdown upside this matchup gives him.
2023 has been the year of the rookie tight end, just not for Dalton Kincaid. While Sam LaPorta has stolen the show; the same success isn’t predictive for Kincaid. On paper, it makes sense to start Kincaid going forward. He’s a fantastic talent, had great draft capital, and is playing in a high-powered offense. The issue is that rookie tight ends don’t produce in year one.
Just because LaPorta is an extreme outlier doesn’t mean a similar trend will follow. Kincaid should be drafted for his upside near the end of the year. Don’t let LaPorta’s outlier-type season sway your opinion of Kincaid.
The issue with having Kincaid in the same offense as Dawson Knox is that neither of them is startable. Kincaid hasn’t been productive enough to start, but he’s done enough damage to where Knox isn’t startable either. From a fantasy perspective, this sucks. Both tight ends give a little bit of production which doesn’t allow either to be fantasy-relevant.
Even though it’s a high-scoring game, there’s no reason to start Knox. Up to this point, Knox is averaging 5 PPG, and this doesn’t look like it will change any time soon. As the weeks pass, Kincaid will increase his role in the offense, dropping Knox further down the ranks.
How is LaPorta a TE2? Doesn’t that mean you have him ranked between TE 13+ for the week? He’s a surefire TE1 every week at this point. Who are the 12 TEs you’d put above him week 5?
no ranking him as a TE2 means we expect between 5-10 points in a PPR league
Okay so there are 2 TE1s in the nfl?? Then a handful of TE2s and 100 TE9s? Got it
Maybe you need to adjust your ranking to encompass the ever devolving role that TEs play in this iteration of the NFL
this year if you went just linear. there would be between 40-48 TE1s and the same for TE2. depending on if its 10 or 12 teams leagues.
so far based on our ranges there have been 44 TE1s and 67 TE2s. so while TE2 has produced a higher rate we are confident that it will balance out
last season there were a total of 221 TE1s (shroud be 216 based on a linear list) and 249 TE2s
Joe, thank you for taking the time to comment! Classifying someone as a “TE1” sets an expectation of meaningful production. Lowering the threshold basically means we’d be offering false hope when in reality, only a handful of tight ends consistently produce meaningful contributions to fantasy lineups.
Delineating a “Top 12” tight end group matters even less when so few are true difference-makers at a position that’s essentially a low, flat wasteland in terms of production. Case in point: Tyler Higbee was TE12 with 8.9 fantasy points. Fewer than 2 points separated him from Mo Alie Cox, the TE7…and fewer than 2 points separated Higbee from Hunter Henry, the TE19.
I appreciate the thoughtful suggestion, though. Thanks for reading!
Ranking DJ Moore as a flex for him to drop 49 ppr points is crazyyyy