Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 8th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Betting Odds: ATL -1, 40.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: Fox
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcaim on Reddit)
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Desmond Ridder (Sit)
I could leave this section the same week in and week out, so I did. You’re not reading it anyway. You probably have better options on the Waiver Wire than Desmond Ridder. Since becoming the starter in Week 15 last year, Ridder has failed to reach 10 points in six of his eight games. In Ridder’s case, I’m not looking at matchups, I’m looking for options elsewhere.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB1), Tyler Allgeier (Sit)
If you were expecting Bijan Robinson to bounce back into the top ten running backs last week you were disappointed, as he finished as RB11. Robinson’s 105 yards on 14 attempts means he had a monstrous 7.5 yards per attempt. The Texans have a weak run defense, allowing 19 points per game to running backs. I’m firing up Robinson with no hesitation.
For the alligator Tyler Allgeier, his snap count continues to dwindle. In Week 4 Allgeier was on the field for 15 snaps, good for 26%. Keith Smith out-snapped Allgeier 17 to 15 (don’t roster Keith Smith). Allgeier has all but faded from this backfield and should only be rostered as a handcuff for Robinson.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, Flex), Mack Hollins (Sit), Kyle Pitts (Sit, Droppable), Jonnu Smith (Start, High-TE2)
To say Drake London is good for 10 points is generous, he’s hit that mark in two of four games this year. He’s a risky start with the upside being a flex-worthy player. It’s not his fault, they just refuse to throw the ball in Atlanta. The Falcons are dead last in wide receiver targets (42). With Bye weeks coming up, I’m considering London as a Flex option but I’m also open to other options.
I’m not starting Mack Hollins.
If you read my Waiver Wire article you’ll know the day has finally arrived, there’s finally a tight end worth rostering in Atlanta. Except it’s not who you think. While Kyle Pitts is still droppable, Jonnu Smith has quietly been out-producing Pitts. Smith has been out-snapped by Pitts over the last three games (146 to 135), but Smith edges out Pitts when it comes to the stats that matter. In the span of Week 2 to Week 4, Smith has more receptions (15 to 9), targets (20 to 18), and yards (179 to 77). Kyle Pitts is still rostered in 92 percent of ESPN and 95 percent of Yahoo leagues. I can’t think of any other situation in which the TE2 (in terms of catches, targets, and yards) is rostered more than the TE1. If you’re feeling bold, drop Kyle Pitts and pick up Jonnu Smith if rostering the most productive Falcons tight end means something to you. Either way, because of how scarcely they throw the ball in Atlanta, Smith remains a High-TE2.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud (Start, QB1)
Stroud Boys get in here. C.J. Stroud has now had three consecutive games with 20+ points. If you dodged QBs during the draft or drafted someone like Burrow, Stroud is your answer. I’m firing Stroud up as my set-and-forget QB for the rest of the season.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce (Start, Mid-RB2), Devin Singletary (Sit)
After starting the year with two straight weeks of ~RB40 production, Dameon Pierce has two straight weeks of ~RB17 production, a huge jump. The Falcons are a tough matchup for running backs, allowing 9.5 points per game, the seventh-fewest in the league. Pierce is also coming off a game where he ran the ball 24 times, nine more than his previous high this season. Pierce will get the volume but still hasn’t shown bell-cow potential. To me, his ceiling continues to be a High-RB2.
As for Texans’ QB Devin Singletary, I don’t see those trick plays as a reliable source of production. Singletary continues to be nothing more than a handcuff for Pierce and should not be started except in the deepest of leagues.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Nico Collins (Start, Low-WR1), Tank Dell (Start, Low-WR2), Robert Woods (Sit), Dalton Schultz (Start, Low-TE2)
Nico Collins has two top-five finishes this year. Besides the anomaly that was Week 3, Collins has nine targets in every game this season. He continues to be C.J. Stroud’s favorite target and should be started in most places he’s rostered.
Tank Dell is starting to look like a boom/bust wideout, similar to a Tyler Lockett type. The games of 20+ points will average out against his games with six points to have a decent finish at the end of the season. I’m torn on starting Dell, the weeks you don’t he’ll go off, the weeks you do he’ll be non-existent. Start with caution, but still consider him.
Robert Woods has come a long way from his days in LA. I’m not starting Woods and only rostering him in deeper leagues.
Even after coming off a 13-point game, I’m keeping expectations in check for Dalton Schultz. The game was lifted by his first touchdown of the year. He continues to be a touchdown-dependent tight end. Schultz has four or fewer targets in three games this year.
How is LaPorta a TE2? Doesn’t that mean you have him ranked between TE 13+ for the week? He’s a surefire TE1 every week at this point. Who are the 12 TEs you’d put above him week 5?
no ranking him as a TE2 means we expect between 5-10 points in a PPR league
Okay so there are 2 TE1s in the nfl?? Then a handful of TE2s and 100 TE9s? Got it
Maybe you need to adjust your ranking to encompass the ever devolving role that TEs play in this iteration of the NFL
this year if you went just linear. there would be between 40-48 TE1s and the same for TE2. depending on if its 10 or 12 teams leagues.
so far based on our ranges there have been 44 TE1s and 67 TE2s. so while TE2 has produced a higher rate we are confident that it will balance out
last season there were a total of 221 TE1s (shroud be 216 based on a linear list) and 249 TE2s
Joe, thank you for taking the time to comment! Classifying someone as a “TE1” sets an expectation of meaningful production. Lowering the threshold basically means we’d be offering false hope when in reality, only a handful of tight ends consistently produce meaningful contributions to fantasy lineups.
Delineating a “Top 12” tight end group matters even less when so few are true difference-makers at a position that’s essentially a low, flat wasteland in terms of production. Case in point: Tyler Higbee was TE12 with 8.9 fantasy points. Fewer than 2 points separated him from Mo Alie Cox, the TE7…and fewer than 2 points separated Higbee from Hunter Henry, the TE19.
I appreciate the thoughtful suggestion, though. Thanks for reading!
Ranking DJ Moore as a flex for him to drop 49 ppr points is crazyyyy