Sit/Start 2023 Week 17: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, December 31sr, 2023, 1:00 PM EST

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Betting Odds: BUF -12, 40.5 O/U total via oddshark.com

Network: CBS

Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)

New England Patriots

Quarterback

Bailey Zappe (Sit, QB2)

The past three weeks for Bailey Zappe haven’t been that bad. He has managed to throw for six touchdowns and only two interceptions. He looks more comfortable as the starter for the New England Patriots and is making a case to be on the team once the season ends. I think that all comes to an end this week as he travels to Buffalo to face a Bills defense that is giving up the 6th fewest points to quarterbacks. Zappe has been sacked eight times in the past three games including four against a stout Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Bills have everything to play for while the Patriots do not. I expect the pass rush to get home for the Bills and cause Zappe to look like someone who was on the practice squad earlier in the year. Sit him this week.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson (Sit), Ezekiel Elliot (Start, RB2)

If there is one area that the Bills defense is vulnerable it’s in the run game. They are currently giving up the 18th most points to running backs. Rhamondre Stevenson has missed the past three games with an ankle injury and his status for this game will be up in the air all week. Even if he does play I don’t expect him to be very effective. I’m sitting him this week. I think the Patriots continue to roll with veteran Ezekiel Elliot. Not only has Elliot seen 45 carries in the past three weeks, he has also seen 25 targets in the passing game. Given his ability to get the ball in both phases of the games gives Zeke a ton of upside. Since the Patriots will probably be playing from behind, I expect Zeke to see plenty of targets and be the goal-line back if the Patriots can get there. I like Elliot as a solid RB2 this week.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Juju Smith-Schuster (Sit, Flex), Demario Douglas (Start, Flex), DeVante Parker (Sit), Tyquon Thornton (Sit), Hunter Henry (Sit)

The return of Demario Douglas to the passing game has brought back some of the spark. The former Liberty wide receiver played on 74% of the team’s Week 16 snaps. He saw eight targets, catching five of them for 74 yards. It could be a tough week for Douglas as he has been primarily lining up in the slot which will draw coverage from Taron Johnson, who PFF.com rates as the 11th best corner. With the strong pass rush and tough coverage, I think Douglas will be only a flex play this week. He is still developing so the future is bright for the rookie.

On the field with Douglas is veteran DeVante Parker. After missing Week 14 Parker has played on 90%+ of the snaps. He hasn’t seen a ton of volume in those snaps. He only has five targets in each of the past two weeks. Since he will probably see coverage from PFF.com’s 6th best corner in Rasul Douglas and the low volume you can’t trust him this week. Juju Smith-Schuster may also be back after missing the past two weeks with an ankle injury. I don’t love players coming off ankle injuries and when you add in the tough coverage I like it even less. Sit Juju this week. The same can be said for field stretcher Tyquon Thornton who has seen his snap share fall off the past few weeks.

It was a shame that Hunter Henry missed this past week because he was on a two-game scoring hot streak. He got in limited practice last week so the knee injury should keep him out of this game. What concerns me more is the fact that the Bills are giving up the 6th fewest points to tight ends. He has been playing on about 70% of the team’s snaps. He needs a touchdown to be fantasy-relevant. He has scored six this season but I don’t believe this is the game for him. In the previous matchup against the Bills, he was held to only two receptions for 27 yards. Sit Henry this week.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen (Start, QB1)

Josh Allen may be making a ton of mistakes this year with 15 interruptions and three fumbles lost but he is still putting up touchdowns and fantasy points. He has been a QB1 eleven times this season. He is as consistent as they come. Even if he does frustrate Bills fans you can’t not start him. He has 13 rushing touchdowns on the year so he is a threat at any yard of the field. He has gotten you here and you stick with him. QB1 this week.

Running Backs

James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit), Leonard Fourentte (Sit)

James Cook might have been a letdown this past week after dominating the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15. He still got 20 carries this past week and should see similar numbers this week against the Patriots. They are giving up the 12th fewest points to running backs so it’s not a great matchup. The volume should keep Cook in the RB2 range. He also usually sees a few targets a game which only helps boost his fantasy stock.

Leonard Fourentte got his first carries of the season this past week. It was great to see him back in action. There was some head scratching as he was returning kicks but he also saw five carries for 20 yards. The four yards per carry is impressive to see. The Bills may be looking to get him more involved as the season comes to an end and the postseason looms. It was the first game of the year that Latavius Murray did not have a carry. I think Fournette is an interesting player but not to be trusted for the fantasy championships.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Stefon Diggs (Start, WR3), Gabe Davis (Start, WR3), Khalil Shakir (Sit, Flex), Dalton Kincaid (Sit)

As much the media wants to talk about Stefon Diggs and how he is frustrated with his role in the offense he always comes up clutch when the Bills need him. Diggs is not frustrated with the team, his role, or Josh Allen. He is happy and is fine playing his role. For fantasy managers, there is certainly frustration. Seeing probably your highest-drafted wide receiver get eight targets but only catch five of them for 29 yards is a letdown. Diggs also hasn’t scored since before the Week 13 bye. The role that Diggs has been playing is drawing top coverage and opening the field up for others. I expect the same to be done this week as he will see Jonathan Jones in coverage. Jones rates as the 25th-best corner. I expect another low-production day from Diggs but he should still be good enough to get into the WR3 range. In the last matchup against the Pats, Diggs had 12 targets catching six of them for 58 yards and a touchdown but that was mainly against J.C. Jackson.

The open space that Diggs is providing has been at times going to Gabe Davis. Despite having some down weeks where he hasn’t caught anything I think this week he continues what we saw last week. Davis will get coverage from Alex Austin who doesn’t have enough snaps to rate but his rating is really low. The Patriots will have to bring safety help to cover Davis as he stretches the field. I think Davis will be a solid WR2 this week.

Khalil Shakir has been the main slot receiver for the Bills and that looks good for him this week. He will get Myles Bryant who rates as the 69th best corner. Shakir has done well finding soft spots in zone defenses and running crisp outs beating man coverage. He hasn’t seen a ton of volume lately. He is a better NFL receiver than he is fantasy receiver. He will continue to be involved and be a vital part of the Bills offense. You just can’t start him unless you are desperate in the flex.

Dalton Kincaid has been exactly what I thought he was going to be. When Dawson Knox is in the game they eat into each other’s targets enough that neither is worth starting. Given that the Patriots are giving up the fewest points to tight ends you really can’t start Kincaid or Knox this week.