Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 31st@ 1:00 PM ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Betting Odds: Bal-4, 47 total via Oddshark.com
Expected Weather: 49 F; Partly Cloudy
Network: CBS
Writer: Chad Simpson(@CaoChadTTV)
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (Sit)
Tua Tagovailoa comes into this contest off a win vs the Dallas Cowboys where defense, short passes, and the kicking game dominated leaving Tua as the QB22. He has just 2 QB12 or better since Week 8 and several sub-10 FP games in that period. Jaylen Waddle has a high ankle sprain and Raheem Mostert is dealing with a shin injury now which further dwindles his options. The Ravens’ D is flying high after a dominant affair against former MVP frontrunner Brock Purdy. I expect similar results in this one with Tua struggling with interceptions as he tries to force the ball to his remaining weapon Tyreek Hill.
Running Back
Raheem Mostert (Sit), Devon Achane (Sit) Jeff Wilson (Sit)
Raheem Mostert has been must start all season but the bell finally tolled for thee. Mostert is dealing with a shin injury that severely impacted his availability last week and leaves him untrustworthy to stay on the field this week. For Devon Achane and Jeff Wilson how they are utilized when Mostert is still in play and how they will be utilized if the game script becomes unfavorable is why they are unable to be started this week against an above average run D.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, High-End WR2)
Tyreek Hill is the only WR of note if Jaylen Waddle is unable to play. Last week he out-targeted the other WRs including pre-injury Waddle 14-10. Yardage could be a concern as he may not be able to break off huge YAC plays against this pass D. The volume that Hill gets and most likely the added volume he gets from Waddle’s injury puts him right on the edge of WR1.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson(Sit)
Lamar Jackson has risen from the ashes finally as he posted QB1 QB 10 and QB8 over the last 3 weeks against solid defenses. With that out of the way he may have gotten you to the championship, and you may be inclined to trust your stars, but there could not be a worse championship matchup on paper for him. The Dolphins are a couple of goal-line TDs shy of being completely lights-out against running QBs. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts(via Tush) were the sole damage, and neither of them eclipsed 25 rushing yards. In the air, I just can’t trust the function of the offense from week to week while the Dolphins come into this game fresh off that performance against the Cowboys.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards (Sit), Justice Hill (Sit)
Everything I said about Jackson carries over to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, sans the passing game. The Dolphins have been elite against the run. The list of RBs and the degree to which they have shut them down this year is frightening:
Breece Hall 25 yards
Josh Jacobs 39 yards
Derrick Henry 34 yards(did score 2 TD)
Hall 12 yards
Tony Pollard 38 yards
Rhamondre Stevenson 39 yards
Stevenson 50 yards
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Odell Beckham Jr.(Sit,), Rashod Bateman (Sit ), Zay Flowers (Start High-End WR2), Isaiah Likely (Start TE2)
Zay Flowers will end up in a very similar place as Hill on the other side right on the edge of WR1 and with the potential to break higher if Miami comes in flat off the big win. Beyond him, Isaiah Likely should have a tougher go of things against a D that has allowed just three TE1 weeks all year. Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman are entirely dependent on a TD to be viable with Flowers and Likely dominating targets.
Author addendum– While the implied total indicates a relatively high-scoring affair not reflected in my rankings of the players on both sides in this game I come to that decision with good reason. I believe this to be a serious misunderstanding of the matchup by oddsmakers in the same vain as last week’s Chiefs loss to the Raiders. This matchup is too much of a mirror with the injuries in the Dolphins offense to create a dynamic favorable to high scoring.
Engram a TE2? He’s #4 scorer in PPR league.
Its not based on what he has done but what we project for him this week. TE range is 5-9.90 points. With Lawrence as questionable, there is reason to believe that Engram might not be as productive as usual. He has been in the TE2 range six times this year
You don’t think gamescript and check downs in the passing game can offer Achane flex appeal with high upside? Especially with waddle out and mostert not 100%.
Every writer has a different read on perceived gamescript, etc. Personally, I’m of the mindset that Achane should outscore Mostert this weekend. However, a tough Baltimore defense limits the ceiling for both, in my eyes. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Do yall think Zeke will outscore Singletary in a non PPR format?
In full PPR, I definitely prefer Zeke…much tougher call in standard formats. I’m torn; Zeke’s snap share is so incredibly high that it’s hard to ignore the sheer volume he’ll see. It comes down to projected gamescript for me. I like the Bills to roll the Pats, and I think Singletary will have a much easier time against TEN with Stroud under center than he did vs CLE last week with Keenum at the helm. I’ll give Singletary my endorsement here. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Appreciate the insight. Same thinking on my end. Just see the Pats getting stomped and not having enough time of possession for Zeke to do enough. If I win it’ll be my 4th year in a row to win my home league. Using this site as my primary source!
Been riding Tua all season. Seriously considering benching him for Carr. Is that crazy?
i started lamar jackson, ur dum