Sit/Start 2023 Week 17: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Thursday, December 28th, 8:15 PM EST

Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH

Betting Odds: CLE -7.5, O/U 35 via OddsShark

Network: FOX

Writer: Nick Beaudoin 

New York Jets

Quarterbacks

Trevor Siemian (Sit)

Zach Wilson (concussion) has already been ruled out of Thursday night’s game, leaving us with another painful week of Trevor Siemian. Last week against the Washington Commanders, Siemian completed just 55 percent of his 49 pass attempts for 217 yards, one touchdown, and one interception; that performance was good for QB25 on the week. Keep in mind that this was at home against the Commanders, who are the best possible matchup for (fantasy) QBs. On a short week, he will travel to Cleveland, who comes in as the fourth-ranked defense in points allowed to QBs. If you follow this website, then you’re already savvy enough to know that Siemian is not a preferred option this week.

Running Backs

Breece Hall (Start, RB2), Israel Abanikanda (Sit), Dalvin Cook (Sit)

Breece Hall has been a bit more boom-or-bust than we had hoped this season, but the blame is hardly on him. Teams have been able to shift their entire focus his way thanks to the levels of quarterback and playcalling incompetence the Jets have graced us with this season. If you’ve continued to ride the Breece-Coaster (as you should have), then Santa was kind enough to give you the RB1 overall finish last week.

Unfortunately, this week’s matchup isn’t nearly as appealing, but the Browns have been more exploitable against the run in the second half of the season. Their defense is already pretty banged up, and two defensive starters, DE Ogbo Okoronkwo and LB Anthony Walker, have already been ruled out; this can only help the case for Hall.

Although he probably won’t have 36 opportunities (including 16 targets) again, the Jets are going to rely heavily on Breece if they have any interest in winning this game. Breece is the RB4 on the season and a Top 5 talent at the position. Regardless of matchup or game script, we’ve seen his upside, and you’d be hard-pressed not to start him in Championship Week. Breece is a rock-solid RB2 this week and should be started in all formats.

Amazing what Breece Hall can do when there aren’t defenders in the backfield
pic.twitter.com/hmH1DD2DNn

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) December 24, 2023

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Garrett Wilson (Start, WR3), Jason Brownlee (Sit), Xavier Gipson (Sit), Allen Lazard (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Start, TE2)

Garrett Wilson is the only start-worthy option in this receiving core and will likely be the catalyst of controversy in our Reddit feed this week. Wilson is one of the most talented WRs in the league, somehow coming in as WR24 on the season despite being hampered by mediocre-at-best quarterback play for two straight years. In some ways, he is Gen Z’s Allen Robinson.

The Cleveland Browns are an elite defense against opposing wide receivers, currently ranked 7th on the year in PPG; however, they have allowed bigger games recently, coming in just 23rd to the position over the last month. Wilson is seeing 9.9 targets/game, a 30.9% target share, and a 100% route participation rate. These are all Top 5 numbers at the position, but that said, he saw 15 targets last week in the best matchup possible and still only finished as the WR23.

Despite this ridiculous volume, these numbers make me hesitant against a much more talented Cleveland secondary, especially if S Juan Thornhill can make his way back into the lineup. Wilson is all but certain to see 8 or more targets once again, but will likely need a touchdown to fall back into WR2 range, something he has done just once in the past 13 games. Although I absolutely love Wilson as a player, I don’t trust the quality of targets in what is projected to be a very low-scoring matchup against the Browns. Wilson can be treated as a fringe WR2/WR3 this week, and if there is any window at all to buy him in dynasty leagues, you should be doing so now.

I will not bother to speak about the rest of the Jets’ wide receivers. You deserve better.

WR Garrett Wilson recorded his 80th reception of the season Sunday, becoming the ninth player in NFL history to record 80+ catches in each of his first two seasons — he is the third player in Jets history to record back to back 80+ reception seasons. pic.twitter.com/cCTdfJ07MY

— NYJ Communications (@NYJetsPR) December 26, 2023

Tyler Conklin has served as this team’s bonafide WR2 this season and has been reasonably productive in doing so. He currently sits at TE17 on the season, even with zero touchdowns to his name. The Browns are 4th in PPG to opposing tight ends, and Conklin appears to be at a disadvantage against S D’Anthony Bell this week. Outside of 2TE leagues, you can safely look elsewhere.

Cleveland Browns

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco (Start, QB2)

38-year-old Joe Flacco, who was not even on a team at Thanksgiving, is the QB3 overall since stepping into the huddle for Cleveland four weeks ago. Despite having zero rushing ability whatsoever, he still came in as the QB1 overall last week against the Texans. What a world.

It’s hard not to ride the hot hand, but Flacco is not in my player pool outside of 2QB/SF leagues this week. I understand that the Miami Dolphins just tore up the New York Jets secondary, but teams have down weeks from time to time, and it seems to happen fairly often when they are playing Miami. The Jets’ secondary has (more often than not) been stout this season, coming in 5th in PPG to opposing QBs, and shutting down many top-tier QBs that most would consider better than Joe Flacco. Where their defense has been beatable is on the ground. As (-7.5 point) home favorites, I’m expecting the Browns to plan on a heavier dose of the run game than in the past few weeks. Flacco is a low-ceiling QB2 this week.

Joe Flacco throwing sideline lasers sitting on a couch of defenders pic.twitter.com/KDn46cDROw

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) December 26, 2023

Running Backs

Jerome Ford (Start, FLEX), Kareem Hunt (Sit, FLEX)

Jerome Ford‘s efficiency has been declining over the second half of the season, but he encouragingly found the end zone last week for the first time in five games. This team has become surprisingly pass-happy since Flacco joined, but Ford is still leading the backfield, averaging 11 carries and four targets/game in that span, putting him at RB25 over the past month. While the Jets excel in coverage, they come in 30th in PPG to RBs, which is likely Cleveland’s key to victory. I’m expecting a good old-fashioned smash mouth (RIP) game this Thursday night, with the Browns attempting to dominate the trenches and win with sound defense. Ford’s ceiling is low with Kareem Hunt stealing the goal line work, but he should see another 15-plus touches in a good matchup, making him a reasonable FLEX option who should see a few targets as well.

Kareem Hunt has seemingly lost any remaining explosiveness, rushing for 18 yards on 14 carries over the past two weeks. However, he has fared well in the short-yardage role, with eight touchdowns in just 13 games this season. Hunt is a low-floor, entirely touchdown-dependent FLEX option this and every week.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Amari Cooper (Start, WR2), Elijah Moore (Sit), Cedric Tillman (Sit), David Njoku (Start, TE1)

Amari Cooper has been outstanding over the past month, coming in as the WR2 since Joe Flacco joined the team. In the past three weeks, he has averaged 12.3 targets/game, scored three touchdowns, and topped 100 yards twice. These numbers cannot be ignored, and he has cemented himself as a must-start, but Sauce Gardner & Co. are the most difficult matchup in PPG to WRs; their main focus will be on Cooper. We just saw the Dolphins exploit this secondary, but the Browns are not the Dolphins, and I’m banking on Cooper falling back into the WR2 range this week, assuming he’s able to play.

P.S. – Remember when the Cowboys traded this guy for a fifth-round pick, just so they could afford Michael Gallup, fresh off an ACL tear? (thinking emoji) 

Last year, Amari Cooper set a career high with 9 TDs and led the AFC North in receiving.

This year, Amari Cooper just set a career high with 1250 receiving yards and leads the AFC North in receiving.

They said he wasn't elite.
They said he wasn't a WR 1.

They. Were. Wrong. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/y14PXXjOna

— Nick Karns (@karnsies817) December 26, 2023

Elijah Moore out-snapped Amari Cooper last week, but still only caught two passes on four targets for 19 yards. The struggle has been real for the former second-round pick, who still has untapped upside, but we just haven’t seen it in 2023. I’m still holding out hope for his future, but it’s getting harder and harder to stay patient.

Meanwhile, David Njoku continues his reign with another six receptions last week and his fourth touchdown in the past three games. Since Flacco has joined the team, he’s averaging 9.3 targets, 64 yards, and one touchdown/game. Although he’s projected to square off against LB C.J. Mosley, PFF’s 3rd-ranked LB in coverage (of 76 qualified), the Jets have given up big games to TEs, currently sitting at 21st in PPG. Regardless of matchup, Njoku’s volume and red zone usage make him a locked-and-loaded TE1 every week.

That's MY tight end. #DawgPound #Browns #DavidNjoku pic.twitter.com/1Rv8bNSRWa

— Matt Wilson (@CoachWilson66) December 18, 2023

Thank you so much for being here this season.

Best of luck to you in Championship Week!

– Nick Beaudoin