Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 31st, 4:25 pm
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: DEN -5.5 O/U 38.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Easton Stick (Sit)
I’ll be frank here; if you are in your fantasy championship game this week on the back of future Trivia Night Bonus Question Easton Stick, I will have to assume you are in some wild, ‘we were all on mescaline at the draft’ 20-team league where over half the members forgot their password by Week 3. Anyhow, stats! Easton has averaged 217 passing yards per outing since inheriting the helm, has thrown zero touchdowns in two of the three games (he did sneak in 3 of them while fervently in the process of getting his face punched in by the Raiders), and all in all will be best remembered as the guy who was the pallbearer who finally put in the final nail of Brandon Staley’s football coffin. So in a way, Easton Stick is a hero. Anyway, what were we talking about?
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB2)
I’ll be the first to admit I completely missed the whole Austin Ekeler lovefest the last couple of years – I don’t know if I didn’t trust it, or just assumed it was just going to fall apart as soon as I bought in, or what my deal was, but I just let him pass by multiple times to my later regret. Thankfully this year, that strategy is finally paying off. I kid. He couldn’t control the injury situation, his or the plague levels of tragedy that have hit everyone around him, but it’s been a stressful year for Ek owners – while he has knocked out five 20+ point games this year, he also missed three and notched higher than twelve points in the other seven. But you know when the last time was that he did roll up with one of those twentyritos? You got it: three weeks ago against these same Denver Broncos, with 99 all-purpose yards, five catches, and a touchdown. He should get even more work with the Herbert-less, and probably Keenan-less Chargers this time out. you have no reason to have Joshua Kelley or Isaiah Spiller on your roster; neither sees any significant work nor should they.
Wide Receivers/ Tight End
Keenan Allen* (Start, WR2), Quentin Johnston (Sit/Flex), Joshua Palmer *(Flex), Gerald Everett (Start, TE2)
As of this typing, I can find no evidence or hint that Keenan Allen has made any progress towards the goal of returning to the lineup this week. I will say this: if he does, I don’t care if it’s Easton Stick or – Will Grier is here? Huh – whoever, Allen has the kind of impact that warrants getting him in your top two if he’s good to go. But let’s assume he’s not! As of Wednesday, Allen still isn’t practicing, and you know what else? Neither is Joshua Palmer! THIS WHOLE TEAM IS JUST BROKEN. Palmer has a concussion, so he’s working through the protocol (I would assume) – if he suits up, I might be tempted to use him in a flex here on his recent volume lead – he was 5 for 8 and 47 yards last week, and 4-for-4 for 113 the week previous in expanded duty. If Palmer is out, then I’d shift that same flex expectation onto Quintin Johnson, who mustered 91 yards on four receptions against these Broncos three weeks ago with Allen in play (but Palmer was not). Somebody’s got to catch something here, so the sliding scale lands on whoever is actually healthy. Speaking of which, in the past five weeks, Gerald Everett has averaged 5 catches and 41.8 yards a game – those aren’t spectacular tight-end numbers, but they are reliable and consistent as of late. He’s not a game-breaker (there’s only one touchdown in that span, and three on the whole year), but he’s not going to give you the dreaded zero in your championship game.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson Jared Stidham (Sit)
Well, here’s a development – in a fiscal insurance move almost certainly designed to specifically keep the Broncos from being on the hook for 37 million dollars this offseason if Russell Wilson were to get injured in these next couple of games, the Broncos are going to ‘see what they’ve got here’ with Jared Stidham, a fella who should be filing for early certification in the NFL journeyman program (I think Tyrod Taylor teaches a couple classes). Stidham is on his third team in four years. What do we know about him? He threw for 256 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions his second year in New England, and then in year three he got to start two games (at the end of the season – trend!), tossed for 656 yards, and FOUR touchdowns, and again, three picks. He was subsequently awarded a two-year 10 million dollar contract with the Broncos, who aren’t sharp with their money. So maybe he’ll get six touchdowns and three interceptions this time around in his role as a filler.
So normally, I wouldn’t even consider Stidham in a situation like this….but what if you had been rolling Russ this whole time? You may have been – he’s been a solid QB2 with flirtations at QB1 all year – certainly serviceable enough to get you this far. And there aren’t more ideal matchups than the Chargers for a QB to dust himself off and step into.
Just kidding, I’m not insane. You have to have had some kind of alternate to Russ this year, and this is where you break the glass and put them in there if you had to. Stidham may have a great game – the Chargers can do that for a guy, and I still would consider a couple of receivers in here even with the sudden change – but there’s no way I can responsibly put anything but a ‘Sit’ on a guy with two career starts and 14 total games played in your fantasy championship game (or possibly semi-finals if you like the pain of deciding a king on the last week of the regular season).
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Start, RB2), Samaje Perine/Jaleel McLaughlin (Sit)
Normally I’m not much of a fantasy fan of Javonte Williams, and for most of the season, that’s been born out of a simple look at the stats. for the year, Williams just isn’t an effective starter, having broken past the RB2 floor of 12 points on only four occasions – and one of those, just barely (Green Bay, Week 7). But there’s no way I don’t roll him with confidence this week considering a) the new quarterback and b) he got 18.1 points for his owners just three weeks back against these basically-the-same Chargers. He was the RB12 that week, good for 91 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. Yeah, I fully understand every time I’ve believed in Javonte, he’s made me the saddest boy, but what good are we as humans if we don’t give second, third, and eleventh chances? At least against the Chargers? Count me in. I do wish he wasn’t losing 7-8 carries a week to either Jaleel McLaughlin or Samaje Perine but it is what it is – he still sees the bulk of the work. Neither of the other two here see enough targets or touches regularly enough to be on a roster this deep into the season, so remove them from consideration.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start*, WR3), Jerry Jeudy (Flex), Brandon Johnson (Flex*) Marvin Mims (Sit) Adam Trautman (Sit)
Courtland Sutton is in concussion protocol and serves as yet another reminder that we in the fantasy community can’t have nice things, as a little treat. As a rule of thumb for you young receivers out there, always remember: when the head squares up with the ground, the ground wins. He was in the New England game for less than five minutes, which should also serve as a lesson to the Broncos offense, and that lesson is ‘throw to Courtland first’. Anyway, if somehow Sutton *clears protocol, put him back in that WR3 slot he’s owned all year long. Heck, against the Chargers, I might even be tempted to use him as a WR2, just to be cute. However, in the much more likely case that he sits this week, where do we turn against the abysmal L.A. Chargers defense? Do we turn to Marvin Mims, who saw his best game since September last week, with three catches for 63 yards? Well, I wouldn’t. 47 of those were one play, and ‘four targets’ isn’t that substantial a jump from his normal two or three. What of Jerry Jeudy? Well, I think I wouldn’t hate the idea of Jerry in a flex play this week – even without Courtland in tow. He’s still crazy inconsistent – the Jeudy Trademark – but the Chargers remain just terrible against the pass. They are second to last in yards allowed via the air for the year, allowing 262.6 a game, and seventh worst in passing touchdowns allowed at 25. If ever there was a prime spot for JJ to score his <removes glasses, blinks, rubs eyes, looks at phone again> SECOND touchdown of the year, this is it. The biggest immediate benefactor of Sutton sitting though appears to be Brandon Johnson, whom you might remember from ‘scoring three touchdowns in the first month of the season and then vanishing’. Big Brandon resurfaced last week with his best game since Week 2, pulling in three of five targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. Would I play him if Sutton is active? I certainly would not, how dare you! But if he isn’t, well, it’s kind of a thinning healthy-receiver-with-reliable-quarterback-facing-trash-fire-defense out there, I think I’d be too tempted by the potential to not sneak him into the lineup as a flex. Of course, we could always turn to Adam Trautman.…ha, just kidding! Nobody turns to Adam Trautman. He saw one target last week. He did not turn it into a catch.
Engram a TE2? He’s #4 scorer in PPR league.
Its not based on what he has done but what we project for him this week. TE range is 5-9.90 points. With Lawrence as questionable, there is reason to believe that Engram might not be as productive as usual. He has been in the TE2 range six times this year
You don’t think gamescript and check downs in the passing game can offer Achane flex appeal with high upside? Especially with waddle out and mostert not 100%.
Every writer has a different read on perceived gamescript, etc. Personally, I’m of the mindset that Achane should outscore Mostert this weekend. However, a tough Baltimore defense limits the ceiling for both, in my eyes. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Do yall think Zeke will outscore Singletary in a non PPR format?
In full PPR, I definitely prefer Zeke…much tougher call in standard formats. I’m torn; Zeke’s snap share is so incredibly high that it’s hard to ignore the sheer volume he’ll see. It comes down to projected gamescript for me. I like the Bills to roll the Pats, and I think Singletary will have a much easier time against TEN with Stroud under center than he did vs CLE last week with Keenum at the helm. I’ll give Singletary my endorsement here. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Appreciate the insight. Same thinking on my end. Just see the Pats getting stomped and not having enough time of possession for Zeke to do enough. If I win it’ll be my 4th year in a row to win my home league. Using this site as my primary source!
Been riding Tua all season. Seriously considering benching him for Carr. Is that crazy?
i started lamar jackson, ur dum