Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 31st, 3:25 PM CST
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Betting Odds: KC -7, 44.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: CBS
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterbacks
Jake Browning (Start, QB2)
If you’re playing in a superflex format, I recommend starting Jake Browning on playoff/championship Sunday. Browning has been unexpectedly good, averaging 15 PPG with Joe Burrow out. Now Browning will be forced to throw even more, considering the Bengals are seven-point underdogs against the Chiefs.
However, the Chiefs have allowed the 6th least fantasy points to quarterbacks (13.95 PPG), which may be a slight setback. That said, I’m fine playing Browning based on his recent performances and game script in week 17.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (Start, RB2), Chase Brown (Sit)
Despite having a rough start to the 2023 season, Joe Mixon has stormed back, averaging 18.8 PPG in his last four games. That said, I’m not comfortable projecting Mixon as an RB1 in a game where he won’t have much touchdown upside. On top of that, the Chiefs have allowed the 12th least fantasy points to running backs this year (19.63 PPG). It’s not a great matchup by any means, but Mixon has been great recently, making him an RB2.
Chase Brown had a nice stretch of games, but after a 4.4-point performance in week 16, I wouldn’t be starting Brown. Although Brown might see a bigger role in the passing game, overall, it’s a rough matchup. There will be better days for Brown, but you’ll have to wait until 2024.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Tee Higgins (Start, WR2), Tyler Boyd (FLEX), Tanner Hudson (Start, TE2)
Just in time for the fantasy playoffs, Tee Higgins is back. Now, you may not be in the playoffs if you drafted Higgins with a top draft pick, but if you are, there’s no better time for him to perform. In Higgins’s last two games, he scored 22.1 and 25 PPG, drawing eight targets in both games.
As I mentioned above, Browning should have to throw the ball a ton, which will also help Higgins. According to Pro Football Focus, Higgins has a matchup advantage score of 49.5, which rates as “Average.” Although the Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (28.28 PPG), I still have high hopes for Higgins in week 17.
Without Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd is a flex play on a week-to-week basis. Chase was absent in week 16, causing Boyd to score 1o.9 points, which is a good sign going forward. That said, Boyd isn’t some elite talent that I feel 100% confident about posting WR2 numbers weekly. On top of that, Boyd has a WR/CB matchup score of 22.6, which is “poor.”
Tanner Hudson looked solid in weeks 14 and 15, averaging 10 PPG. However, Hudson had a rough last week, scoring 1.5 points, and the Chiefs have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to tight ends (9.91 PPG). Even so, Hudson should be a TE2 in week 17, as he has a 28% matchup advantage score in week 17.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Yes, I know Patrick Mahomes is having an incredibly rough stretch of games, but he’s still a low-end QB1. Sure, you can’t rank Mahomes at the top right now, but based purely on his talent, I can’t put 11 guys ahead of him. The Chiefs are heavy favorites in week 17, but the Bengals have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks (17.65 PPG). I know many owners are starting to panic, but Mahomes is still a low-end QB1 for me.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB2) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (FLEX – If Pacheco Doesn’t Play)
After suffering a concussion last week, Isiah Pacheco is questionable for week 17. Pacheco has had a nice developmental year, going from 7.9 in 2022 to 14.2 PPG in 2023. The big difference has been Pacheco’s involvement as a pass catcher, as he’s drawn 42 targets this year compared to 14 last year. Pacheco has looked fantastic in these last three games, averaging 19.3 PPG.
In a game where the Chiefs should run the ball a ton, I love having Pacheco as a high-end RB2, assuming he’s healthy. It’s also worth noting that the Bengals have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to running backs (17.65 PPG).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t done much in 2023, averaging 4.9 PPG on the year. If Pacheco misses, however, Edwards-Helaire is a borderline flex play, as he scored 20.1 points just two weeks ago.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Rashee Rice (Start WR1), Kadarius Toney (Sit), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Justin Watson (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start TE1)
Rashee Rice looks great recently and is really coming into his own. Rice is having a fanatic run, averaging 18.6 PPG in the last four games, and deserves to be a WR1 going forward. If you needed any more convincing, Rice has a matchup advantage score of 70.5, which is “good.”
Kadarius Toney is questionable for week 17, but even if he plays, I wouldn’t start him. Toney has been very disappointing, and the Bengals have allowed the 9th least fantasy points to wide receivers in 2023 (36.14 PPG).
Please don’t start Marquez Valdes-Scantling under any circumstances. Scantling has done nothing in 2023, averaging 3.7 PPG on the rare occasion he gets on the field. To make things worse, Scantling has a matchup advantage score of 23.5, which is “poor.”
Justin Watson is still a sit, but he’s been much better than Scantling. Watson reminds me of a much worse Gabe Davis, and as a result, he’s averaging 6 PPG with a few spike weeks. Watson also has a matchup score of 43.9, which is “below average.”
Although Travis Kelce is coming off a 7.8 and 9.4-point performance, he still needs to be ranked as a TE1. Now, I’m totally fine having Kelce as a mid-TE1, but let’s not put him any lower than this. In a matchup where the Bengals have allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends (15.62 PPG), Kelce is a must-start.
Engram a TE2? He’s #4 scorer in PPR league.
Its not based on what he has done but what we project for him this week. TE range is 5-9.90 points. With Lawrence as questionable, there is reason to believe that Engram might not be as productive as usual. He has been in the TE2 range six times this year
You don’t think gamescript and check downs in the passing game can offer Achane flex appeal with high upside? Especially with waddle out and mostert not 100%.
Every writer has a different read on perceived gamescript, etc. Personally, I’m of the mindset that Achane should outscore Mostert this weekend. However, a tough Baltimore defense limits the ceiling for both, in my eyes. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Do yall think Zeke will outscore Singletary in a non PPR format?
In full PPR, I definitely prefer Zeke…much tougher call in standard formats. I’m torn; Zeke’s snap share is so incredibly high that it’s hard to ignore the sheer volume he’ll see. It comes down to projected gamescript for me. I like the Bills to roll the Pats, and I think Singletary will have a much easier time against TEN with Stroud under center than he did vs CLE last week with Keenum at the helm. I’ll give Singletary my endorsement here. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Appreciate the insight. Same thinking on my end. Just see the Pats getting stomped and not having enough time of possession for Zeke to do enough. If I win it’ll be my 4th year in a row to win my home league. Using this site as my primary source!
Been riding Tua all season. Seriously considering benching him for Carr. Is that crazy?
i started lamar jackson, ur dum