Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 31st, 2023, 1:00 PM ET
Location: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
Betting Odds: 49ers -13, O/U 49.5 via OddsShark
Weather: 49 F, Partly Cloudy
Network: FOX
Writer: Christian Otteman (@COttemanPL on Twitter/X)
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy (Start, QB1) or Sam Darnold (Start, QB2)
As of right now, it’s unclear if Brock Purdy will take the field on Sunday after suffering a “stinger” in the 4th quarter against the Ravens. Purdy easily had his worst game of 2023 in Week 16, putting up 0 TDs and 4 INTs but is in prime “bounce back” territory if he can start in Week 17 against the Commanders and their nearly-league-worst passing defense (thanks, Eagles). Though his MVP chances took a massive hit following the Christmas Day loss, fantasy managers can still trust Purdy as a QB1 to bring them home a championship trophy this week. If he’s unavailable to go, Sam Darnold would profile as a high-end QB2 based on the matchup and the weapons available at his disposal.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Sit)
Just checking to make sure you’re paying attention. Yes, he’s THE (not an) RB1. Start Christian McCaffrey.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Deebo Samuel (Start, WR1), Brandon Aiyuk (Start, WR2), George Kittle (Start, TE1)
Deebo Samuel‘s streak of four straight WR1 weeks came to an end in Week 16 against the Ravens, though he did still lead the team in targets with 12. Playing against a Commanders secondary allowing the second-most points to WRs, Samuel is in line to bounce back with another productive outing in the fantasy championships. Kendall Fuller ranks as PFF’s fifth-best corner and poses a challenge amongst an otherwise porous defensive unit, but the 49ers tend to use Deebo all over the field in creative ways to get their dynamic playmaker the ball. Flying high since the BYE, Deebo profiles as a WR1 for the fantasy championships, no matter who is taking snaps under center.
Though Deebo has been in the spotlight over the past month, Brandon Aiyuk has also enjoyed a fantastic season, already setting a career-high in receiving yards with 1,203 through Week 16. Aiyuk doesn’t have quite the same nose for the end zone that Deebo does, but a matchup with the Commanders means that Aiyuk sits near the top of the WR2 ranks for this week and has the upside to push for a top-10 weekly finish.
The Commanders are much more stingy against TEs than WRs, but George Kittle still has a very favorable matchup against Washington LB Khaleke Hudson according to PFF. In case you forgot about his upside, Kittle finished as the top TE in Week 16 and by all means could repeat in Week 17. Don’t overthink it – Kittle is still a high-end TE1.
Washington Commanders
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett (Sit)
After outperforming the struggling Sam Howell in relief each of the past two weeks, the Commanders have turned to Jacoby Brissett to act as the team’s starting quarterback in Week 17. Congratulations on your promotion, Jacoby! As a reward, you get a date with the defense that allows the third-fewest points to quarterbacks. Though he performed well against the league’s second-best passing defense in the Jets last week (10/13 passing for 100 yards and a score), I can’t in good faith recommend starting Brissett against the Niners with a championship on the line. There’s always the chance that Howell takes the field should Brissett struggle in the early going, too.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. (Sit, FLEX), Antonio Gibson (Sit), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Sit)
Credit to Brian Robinson Jr., who has been one of the lone bright spots for the Commanders in a rough 2023 season. Despite the season being over for Washington, Robinson was spotted at practice on Wednesday and appears to be working to get back to action after missing a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. Even if he does play in Week 17, I can’t advise starting him against a tough 49ers defense allowing the seventh-fewest points to the position. Robinson likely won’t get a full workload in his first game back, meaning he’s a desperation FLEX option for deep-leaguers at best.
The ‘Sit’ recommendations for Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez Jr. remain whether or not BRob can start in this game. Neither has shown anything this season that warrants a spot in your starting lineup during championship week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin (Start, WR3), Jahan Dotson (Sit), Curtis Samuel (Sit), Logan Thomas (Sit, TE2)
The Commanders are underdogs by nearly two touchdowns in this one, so at least from a game script perspective, things look promising for Terry McLaurin. Unfortunately, the good news stops here, as Terry will draw coverage from Charvarius Ward and Ambry Thomas throughout this game, both of which are challenging matchups for the Commanders’ top receiver. With only one top-12 finish on the season (albeit during the fantasy playoffs in Week 15), Terry can be started in a pinch based on volume alone but is a risky play against a tough defense. Unfortunately, neither Jahan Dotson nor Curtis Samuel are good options to start this week, even with the quarterback change. Both have had a couple of spike weeks this season, but the floor is simply too low to start them during championship week.
Logan Thomas has caught four touchdowns this year, producing four top-ten TE finishes in 2023. The 49ers have only allowed three TDs to opposing TEs so far this season, so Thomas profiles as a risk TD-or-bust TE2 to round out the fantasy season. Check your waivers for a better matchup if he’s the only option you have for Week 17 on your roster.
Good luck to everyone as you look to close out 2023 with a championship!
Engram a TE2? He’s #4 scorer in PPR league.
Its not based on what he has done but what we project for him this week. TE range is 5-9.90 points. With Lawrence as questionable, there is reason to believe that Engram might not be as productive as usual. He has been in the TE2 range six times this year
You don’t think gamescript and check downs in the passing game can offer Achane flex appeal with high upside? Especially with waddle out and mostert not 100%.
Every writer has a different read on perceived gamescript, etc. Personally, I’m of the mindset that Achane should outscore Mostert this weekend. However, a tough Baltimore defense limits the ceiling for both, in my eyes. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Do yall think Zeke will outscore Singletary in a non PPR format?
In full PPR, I definitely prefer Zeke…much tougher call in standard formats. I’m torn; Zeke’s snap share is so incredibly high that it’s hard to ignore the sheer volume he’ll see. It comes down to projected gamescript for me. I like the Bills to roll the Pats, and I think Singletary will have a much easier time against TEN with Stroud under center than he did vs CLE last week with Keenum at the helm. I’ll give Singletary my endorsement here. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Appreciate the insight. Same thinking on my end. Just see the Pats getting stomped and not having enough time of possession for Zeke to do enough. If I win it’ll be my 4th year in a row to win my home league. Using this site as my primary source!
Been riding Tua all season. Seriously considering benching him for Carr. Is that crazy?
i started lamar jackson, ur dum