Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 31st, 1:00 PM EST
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Betting Odds: LAR -4.5, O/U 44.5 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (Start, Low-QB1)
It’s hard not to root for Matthew Stafford at this point. He has outperformed expectations his entire career, played through vicious injuries, supported his wife through a battle with cancer, and even at 34 years old, continues to play at an elite level. He is a leader that elevates everyone around him, and has turned this young Rams team around, once again.
Although the Giants haven’t been quite as bad against QBs as most would think (16th in PPG), there is no reason to fear this week. Since returning from his thumb injury, Stafford has been virtually unstoppable, coming in as the QB2 over the past month. Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua match up favorably against the entire Giants secondary, and the Rams come in with a team-implied total of 24.75. Stafford is making himself an impressive Hall of Fame campaign, and is a low-end QB1 in my rankings against the Giants this week.
Wide receivers should be lining up to play with Matthew Stafford 🔥
(📷: @AdamSchefter) pic.twitter.com/RmXMOKA0n7
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) December 22, 2023
Running Backs
Kyren Williams (Start, RB1)
Kyren Williams has become one of the most unlikely fantasy heroes of all time. Undrafted in most leagues, Kyren is the RB8 on the season and RB2 in PPG, all while missing four games with an ankle injury. Kyren has no competition in this backfield, and is taking on a Giants defense ranked 25th in PPG to opposing RBs. As -4.5 point favorites, we can expect Williams to receive another elite workload in a fantastic matchup. The Giants had three DL and one CB listed as DNP on Wednesday, further supporting the case for Williams. Kyren has RB1 overall upside against the Giants.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Cooper Kupp (Start, WR2), Puka Nacua (Start, WR1), Demarcus Robinson (Start, FLEX), Tutu Atwell (Sit), Tyler Higbee (Start, TE2)
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have driven fantasy managers crazy the past few weeks, alternating blowup weeks with unpredictable touchdown equity. Let’s respect our elders, and start with Kupp.
Kupp will be lining mainly against SCB Cor’Dale Flott, PFF’s 69th-ranked CB of 124 qualified players. Although PFF has this matchup ranked “average,” we have to give the lean to Kupp. Last week ended up being a Puka week, but it just as easily could have gone the other way. Kupp dropped two end zone passes that were both difficult catches, but both plays he has made in the past. If you’ve made it this far with Kupp, he should be in your lineup, and should safely produce WR2 numbers this week.
The second undrafted Rams player to steal our hearts this season is Puka Nacua. With by far the coolest name in the league, Nacua came in as a rookie fifth-round pick, and has dominated from day one. He’s averaging 8.3 targets/game over the past six weeks, and has “excellent matchups across the board,” according to PFF. It’s worth noting as well that he is projected to line up mostly against CB Deonte Banks, who was a DNP on Wednesday with a shoulder injury. Whether Banks can play or not, Puka is the WR7 on the year, and can be treated as a WR1 again this week.
The @RamsNFL have found 5th round gems in both of the last 2 drafts 🤯
2022 – Kyren Williams
2023 – Puka Nacua pic.twitter.com/wlefOEzibD— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 27, 2023
Demarcus Robinson has taken and ran with the WR3 role in this offense, playing 84% of snaps over the past month, and scoring a touchdown in four straight games. He has been a more than capable third option, and has played a big role in Stafford’s statistical uprising. Robinson also matches up favorably against the entire Giants secondary, but this sort of efficiency is tough to rely on from someone averaging 3.8 receptions/game, and I’m expecting this Brandin Cooks-esque run to return to reality this week. With a single-game low of 44 yards over the past month, Robinson is a high-floor FLEX play, and could reach WR3 status if he can find the end zone again. You know who could use a receiver like Robinson? The Chiefs.
Tyler Higbee has become an afterthought in this offense, finishing as a TE1 just one time since Week 4. Pair that with a tough matchup against LB Isaiah Simmons, PFF’s 9th-ranked LB in coverage (of 76 qualified players), and you’ve got an easy situation to avoid. Higbee is TE23 on the season, and is set up comfortably to finish in that range again.
New York Giants
Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor (Start, Low-QB2)
In a desperate attempt to “Spark the team,” Head Coach Brian Daboll benched Tommy DeVito at halftime last week, ruining all of New Jersey’s “Tommy Cutlets” Christmas gifts, and bankrupting his agent. On Tuesday afternoon, it was officially announced that Tyrod Taylor would remain the starting QB in Week 17.
The Rams have an exploitable secondary, currently 24th in PPG to QBs. In a world full of Easton Sticks, Taylor Heinickes, and Mason Rudolphs, there is certainly reason to believe that Tyrod could fall into the QB2 realm. With a team-implied total of 20.25, the Giants are expected to be in this game, and should be pass-heavy in the second half as +4.5 underdogs. He’s obviously not in consideration in 1QB leagues, but Tyrod has shown sparks against tougher defenses this year (Buffalo), and his rushing upside gives him a reasonable floor. Tyrod is a desperation QB2 play against the Rams this week.
It looks like the Tommy Cutlets era is over https://t.co/foW8X2oYoQ
— Fox News Sports (@FoxNewsSports_) December 27, 2023
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Start, RB2)
Saquon Barkley takes on another tough task this week, facing a Rams defense 2nd in PPG to RBs. There aren’t many RBs (or players) in the world that could overcome huge deficits against top-ranked defenses, however, that same argument could have been made last week against Philadelphia, who boasts the league’s first-ranked defense (in PPG to RBs), while Saquon still finished RB9 on the week. Although the Giants are terrible, Saquon is still seeing an elite workload (29 opportunities last week), and should see enough volume to finish as an RB2 once again. If Saquon is on your team, you should be playing him.
Saquon Barkley Rushing TD (4) pic.twitter.com/e0Yyvy50Wz
— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVideos2023) December 25, 2023
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Darius Slayton (Start, FLEX), Wan’Dale Robinson (Sit, FLEX), Jalin Hyatt (Sit), Isaiah Hodgins (Sit), Darren Waller (Start, High-TE2), Daniel Bellinger (Sit, TE2)
Darius Slayton came up big on Christmas Day, catching all three of his targets for 90 yards and one touchdown. He has been productive over the past two weeks, and may be able to build on that this week, with beatable matchups on the outside against CBs Cobie Durant and Akhello Witherspoon. Slayton has proven big play ability over the years, but is as inconsistent as they come, with five of his last ten games under 22 yards, and the other five above 60 yards. He is a FLEX-worthy option, averaging 7.5 PPR points/game, but is a low-floor, high-ceiling dart throw.
Wan’Dale Robinson continues his low ADOT campaign, leading the team with seven targets last week, but turning that into three receptions for 16 yards. He has only surpassed 35 all-purpose yards once in the past nine games, and has just one touchdown on the year. He may reach FLEX value due to high volume and game script, but his ceiling is too low to be considered in the most important week of the season.
Despite trailing the Eagles for the entire game, neither Jalin Hyatt nor Isaiah Hodgins received a target last week. If we can’t trust them in that game script, then when can we trust them?
When healthy, Darren Waller remains the true WR1 in this offense. Unfortunately, that role isn’t as valuable as it sounds, as he has only exceeded 43 yards once in his past five games, and that was against the Commanders, who everyone seems to stomp on. On paper, Waller appears poised to finish as a TE1 this week. He’s got a favorable matchup against LB Troy Reeder, he’s got the perfect game script as +6 underdogs, and he’s averaging 6.2 targets/game. He’ll be a fringe TE1/TE2 this week, and a good bet to see a few red-zone targets.
Thank you so much for being here this season.
Best of luck to you in Championship Week!
– Nick Beaudoin
Engram a TE2? He’s #4 scorer in PPR league.
Its not based on what he has done but what we project for him this week. TE range is 5-9.90 points. With Lawrence as questionable, there is reason to believe that Engram might not be as productive as usual. He has been in the TE2 range six times this year
You don’t think gamescript and check downs in the passing game can offer Achane flex appeal with high upside? Especially with waddle out and mostert not 100%.
Every writer has a different read on perceived gamescript, etc. Personally, I’m of the mindset that Achane should outscore Mostert this weekend. However, a tough Baltimore defense limits the ceiling for both, in my eyes. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Do yall think Zeke will outscore Singletary in a non PPR format?
In full PPR, I definitely prefer Zeke…much tougher call in standard formats. I’m torn; Zeke’s snap share is so incredibly high that it’s hard to ignore the sheer volume he’ll see. It comes down to projected gamescript for me. I like the Bills to roll the Pats, and I think Singletary will have a much easier time against TEN with Stroud under center than he did vs CLE last week with Keenum at the helm. I’ll give Singletary my endorsement here. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Appreciate the insight. Same thinking on my end. Just see the Pats getting stomped and not having enough time of possession for Zeke to do enough. If I win it’ll be my 4th year in a row to win my home league. Using this site as my primary source!
Been riding Tua all season. Seriously considering benching him for Carr. Is that crazy?
i started lamar jackson, ur dum