Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 31st@ 1:00 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Betting Odds: TB -2.5, 42 total via Oddshark.com
Expected Weather: 64, Sunny
Network: Fox
Writer: Chad Simpson (@CaoChadTTV)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start, QB1)
I never thought I would find a game where I could say the stars are aligning for Derek Carr to not only have a good game, but to post back-to-back top 5 performances, and in the playoffs no less. He has been the epitome of mediocre for most of the year, before coming out of nowhere last week with a QB3 performance against one of the more QB-friendly matchups in the LA Rams. Now he gets to go up against the worst pass defense in the league.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara (Sit, Flex)
I’m on the fence about Alvin Kamara bouncing back to an RB2 or Flex outing this week after posting a measly 35-yard, 14-touch outing against the Rams above average run defense. Normally, I would say with that volume his performance should be better almost any other time except when going against an even stiffer run defense in Tampa Bay.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR1), Rashid Shaheed (Start, WR2), Juwaun Johnson/Taysom Hill/Jimmy Graham (Sit), A.T Perry (Sit, Flex)
In every matchup against a star receiver this year, the Bucs D has been dismantled:
Justin Jefferson: 150 Yards
D.J. Moore: 104 Yards
A.J. Brown: 131 yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 124 Yards 1 TD
Bills WR trio: all WR 2 or better
Texans WR trio: 2 high end WR1’s and a high end WR2
Brandon Aiyuk: 156 Yards 1 TD
Michael Pittman: 107 Yards
Drake London: 172 Yards
Calvin Ridley: 92 yards 2 TD
In all but 2 of them, a quality WR2 was also supported which benefits Rashid Shaheed although those outcomes were much more touchdown-dependent. The revolving door at TE and the expected dominance of targets and performance by Olave and Shaheed render me unable to recommend any of the tight ends outside of DFS.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (Start, QB1)
Baker Mayfield has posted QB12, QB2, and QB14 performances over the past 3 weeks. The once dominant Saints D has wilted down the stretch, now without Marshon Lattimore, and has struggled all year against quality QB opposition. That struggle includes giving up 246 and 3 TDs to Mayfield early in the season. In a must-win matchup for both teams, I expect Mayfield to have to throw a lot to keep the pressure on the Saints offense to keep up.
Running Backs
Raachad White (Start, RB1)
This will feel like a bit of deja vu but I like Raachad White for many of the same reasons as I like Mayfield. He has posted RB6, RB6, and RB7 over the last 3 weeks, he gets passing game action, and the Saints D has been less than stellar down the stretch including Kyren Williams posting 104 yards and a touchdown last week. I expect a similar performance to what we saw out of White against the Jaguars with PPR volume and quality yardage buoying him.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR1), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Cade Otton (Start, TE1)
This will also feel like deja vu as the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin mirror that of Olave and Shaheed in what I expect out of them this week. The Saints are fresh off OROY contender Puka Nacua torching them for 164 Yards and a touchdown with no signs of this being a bounce-back week for a secondary with no Lattimore. Where the similarity ends is at Cade Otton, who does not have 2 ancient tight ends weighing him down like an anchor. He should be able to carve out enough of a role to produce TE1 value in the barren wasteland that is TE.
Engram a TE2? He’s #4 scorer in PPR league.
Its not based on what he has done but what we project for him this week. TE range is 5-9.90 points. With Lawrence as questionable, there is reason to believe that Engram might not be as productive as usual. He has been in the TE2 range six times this year
You don’t think gamescript and check downs in the passing game can offer Achane flex appeal with high upside? Especially with waddle out and mostert not 100%.
Every writer has a different read on perceived gamescript, etc. Personally, I’m of the mindset that Achane should outscore Mostert this weekend. However, a tough Baltimore defense limits the ceiling for both, in my eyes. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Do yall think Zeke will outscore Singletary in a non PPR format?
In full PPR, I definitely prefer Zeke…much tougher call in standard formats. I’m torn; Zeke’s snap share is so incredibly high that it’s hard to ignore the sheer volume he’ll see. It comes down to projected gamescript for me. I like the Bills to roll the Pats, and I think Singletary will have a much easier time against TEN with Stroud under center than he did vs CLE last week with Keenum at the helm. I’ll give Singletary my endorsement here. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Appreciate the insight. Same thinking on my end. Just see the Pats getting stomped and not having enough time of possession for Zeke to do enough. If I win it’ll be my 4th year in a row to win my home league. Using this site as my primary source!
Been riding Tua all season. Seriously considering benching him for Carr. Is that crazy?
i started lamar jackson, ur dum