Sit/Start 2023 Week 17: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, December 31st, 8:20 pm EST

Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Betting Odds: MN – 2  O/U 46.5 Total via PFF.com

Network: NBC

Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterbacks

Nick Mullens (Start, QB2) or Jaren Hall (A Polite No Thank You)

You can make a legitimate argument that the Minnesota Vikings’ season ended, for all intents and purposes, roughly one yard short of where Justin Jefferson was going to be with 52 seconds left against the Detroit Lions. Sure, mathematically they still have plenty of room and could eke their way in, but my question is: why would you? Nick Mullens tossed four interceptions in that game, raising his two-plus game total to six. He may still be their best option, though there’s also a chance they decide to say “let’s see what we’ve got” with Jaren Hall this week…the same Jaren Hall that prompted them to bring in Josh Dobbs, then turn to career backup Mullens. All of this said, if you’ve played Mullens the last two weeks AND you’re in the championship (or possibly the semis if your league is insane and plays through Week 18), then you HAD to play Nick Mullens…and he got the job done. It should be a great matchup for him, or almost anyone else since the Packers stopped playing competitive defense roughly a month ago. However, understand that with Mullens, you may get a pile of yards and a couple of touchdowns, but those interceptions are a problem…and the reason I even mention Hall here. Rumors have been circulating that Hall may get a look this week, a move that would signal that Minnesota really is hanging it up to see if they MIGHT have a guy who will give them a reason not to draft a QB.  Personally, I’m not hanging my fantasy championship hopes on a guy who couldn’t beat out Nick Mullens or Josh Dobbs from the jump. If they stick with Nick, don’t expect higher than a QB2 outing.

Running Backs

Ty Chandler (Start, RB2), Alexander Mattison (Start, Flex) 

Last week’s Ty Chandler wasn’t the same monster on paper that we saw the previous week but nobody should have expected a repeat performance against a Lions’ squad that is one of the league’s best against the run. I wouldn’t expect Alexander Mattison to be limited to two carries in his second week back from injury, but Minnesota would be wise to stick with a heavier share for Chandler against a defense that can’t stop anybody with half a purpose. There should certainly be more of a split, even if only because Mattison will be needed to pick up some short and mid-range receiving slack due to the absence of T.J. Hockenson (see below). Chandler still found the end zone against that stiff Lions crew last week and should have an easier go of it punching through on the Frozen Tundra. I’m counting on the Vikings leaning on the stronger runner in Chandler early and often and given the state of the Packers’ defense and the dearth of quality options at the running back position in general, I’m not inclined to sit either this week.

Wide Receivers/ Tight End

Justin Jefferson (Start, WR1), Jordan Addison (Start, WR3), K.J. Osborn* (Sit), Brandon Powell (Sit),  TJ Hockenson   Josh Oliver (Sit)

No one should sit Justin Jefferson, regardless of any half-baked argument proposing as much. He was back to his mercurial self against a more effective Detroit defense last week, racking up 141 yards and a score on the heels of a meager 84 yards on 7-for-10 receiving the week prior in Cincinnati. Start him. We’ve already spent too much time on this, so let’s move on.

Jordan Addison has had an up-and-down season, which is to be expected from a rookie who has played with three different quarterbacks, only one of which is starting caliber. However, if he’s good to go, and that’s a fairly substantial ‘if,’ I want him in my lineup. In his first matchup against these Packers, Addison went 7-for-8 for 82 yards and a score. Yes, that was an entirely different quarterback, but I have such little trust in the Packers’ defense that I almost want to tell you to push all purple Minnesota chips to the middle of the table and call. This defense allowed 298 yards and two touchdowns to THE FREAKING PANTHERS, and the week before let Baker Mayfield dunk on them to the tune of 353 yards and 4 touchdowns. I definitely want their second option in there.

*If Addison isn’t good to go, then promote K.J. Osborn to that WR3 spot. Osborn benefitted most from Addison’s early exit last week (5-for-7, 95 yards, 1 TD) and ALSO dabbed on the Packers for his best yardage game of the year back in late October (8-for-10, 99 yards); that Packer defense was much more effective back then. Brandon Powell is an okay WR3/4 option for the Vikings, but this is championship week: you’re going to need more than the 3.25 targets and 26.8 yards per game that Powell can responsibly get you.

As you know by now, T.J. Hockenson is done for the year with the increasingly-popular ACL/MCL combo, the type of injury that could very well bleed into a good chunk of next season. Josh Oliver may be an adequate to above-average replacement-level player, but at this stage of the fantasy season, I’m not trusting my fate to a guy who has logged over 3 targets only once this year.

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback

Jordan Love (Start, low-end QB1*)

As a Green Bay Packers fan, if there’s one thing I have enjoyed over the last three weeks of the defense’s descent into chaos, it’s the innovative emphasis on “let them score quick so we get the ball back,” which has allowed – nay, DEMANDED – that Jordan Love provide me, the fantasy football owner, ample justification for keeping him in the starting lineup. Love has clocked in with over 20 fantasy points in four of his last six games, and the Vikings pass defense is pretty middle of the road. Love has gotten me to my local league championship game this year, so I dare not argue with his success of creating respectable fantasy outings from piles of first-half nothings.

Additionally, the Packers seem to think they want to make the playoffs, which is a terrible idea this year, but dang it if Jordan isn’t going to do all he can to fall short in the last week. All that said, while the Vikings are 18th in the league in passing yards allowed, they’ve only allowed 18 passing touchdowns (and only three in the last month); despite all my jubilation and hometown belief in Love, it might be a tougher go than I’d like, depending on who he’s got catching the football. *If he’s sans Christian Watson AND Jayden Reed again this week, bump him down to a QB2.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones (Start, Flex), AJ Dillon (Sit)

Welcome back, Showtyme! Aaron Jones has been a factor in back-to-back weeks, certainly a reassurance to those of us who have kept him in bubble wrap on the bench for much of this long season. That noted, he was still only RB16 last week with 127 rushing yards, and RB21 the week before. He failed to break through the RB2 plateau in either outing and still shared an extended amount of time with both A.J. Dillon and Patrick Taylor, who combined for 10 carries last week. It’s not an out-and-out split, but Dillon stole the goal-line touchdown, like we always assumed he’d do on the regular, and thus cut into Jones’s fantasy productivity. The Vikings are ninth against the run in terms of yards allowed for the season, so while I like Jones’ renewed activity in the offense a bunch, this isn’t shaping up as a great week after factoring in the timeshare. However, the extra looks aren’t a license to start Dillon, who is still nursing a broken thumb and saddle-bagged the touchdown with a whopping twelve yards. Do you want to win your championship, or are you just happy to be there?

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Christian Watson, Jayden Reed,  Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks  (see below), Tucker Kraft (Start, TE1)

This particular receiving room is as aggravating as any one of the million injuries any of them are afflicted with at any given time, so I’m going to break it down like so:

First, we aren’t considering Malik Heath, Samori Toure, or one-week-highlight Bo Melton here, the latter two because they don’t see enough balls, nor did they do enough with the ones they did see to warrant further consideration. Forget Melton as well, because I really can’t recommend starting a guy that only Rutgers fans have heard of in your championship game (someone who was on the practice squad two weeks ago).

Second, Tucker Kraft plays like a madman; outside of Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce, there are only a handful of guys I’d run out there ahead of him. The rookie from South Dakota State has notched four receptions in three consecutive weeks while averaging about sixty yards. He managed only one touchdown in there, but those catches and yards put him over ten points in all three weeks. At a position with a lot of question marks all year, I’ll take that consistency for the win.

As for the receivers, if everybody’s healthy (slim chance, but we dream), I go with Christian Watson as a WR2, and Jayden Reed as a WR3 and sit everyone else. If Watson sits again with the hammy, and Reed plays, I’d bump him to a WR3, and then probably flex Romeo Doubs, who has maintained a decent target share throughout most of their recent history (save for the Tampa game) and still looks like Love’s clutch go-to when he desperately needs a play. While his touchdown frequency plummeted once the semi-cold sort of rolled in (he’s only had one in the past five games), he’s still a vital part of the offense.

If both Watson and Reed are out again this week, my prudent choice is to bump Doubs up, though I can’t push him higher than a WR3; his year-long numbers just don’t support it. Dontayvion Wicks would then get the flex nod. Please note that while Wicks certainly looks like he’s part of the future with this offense, the present has seen him targeted only twice against Carolina (29 yards and a score). He’s only had more than three catches three times all year, and I’m super wary of him after following up his “breakout game” against Tampa (6-for-7 for 97 yards) with a comparably pale effort last week.