Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 31st@ 1:00 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Betting Odds: CHI-3, 38 total via Oddshark.com
Expected Weather: 34 F; Cloudy High Winds
Network: CBS
Writer: Chad Simpson(@CaoChadTTV)
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke (Sit)
Taylor Heinicke comes into this contest fresh off a big win over the Colts as he tries to keep the Falcons in the playoff picture in what could’ve been a great matchup with the Bears. Unfortunately for fans and fantasy owners alike, the matchup on paper isn’t as good as it seems with Montez Sweat turning the abysmal Bears defense into something of a threat. The other key issue at hand is the brutal Chicago weather. Game time temperatures are expected to be just above freezing with gusts over 20 miles per hour. If there was ever a game for Arthur Smith to run nothing but MyCole Pruitt end-arounds, this would be the game.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson (Start, Low-End RB1), Tyler Allgeier (Start, High-End RB2)
I rarely trust Smith’s coaching to benefit multiple players at the same position. All season, we have seen his ability to make some of the worst personnel decisions imaginable and that could be magnified against the #1 run defense in the league. The weather, however, should force a run-heavy approach against that same defense that gave up 132 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 to a similar duo in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. I expect both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to rotate in and out at a consistent rate as they try to grind the Bears’ defense down in a windy game. Touchdown scoring is where it gets a little sketchy, especially in the red zone with Smith’s play-calling. I think Robinson has a higher chance of getting the touchdown because of his ability to break bigger runs but it really could go either way.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Drake London (Sit) Jonnu Smith (Sit) Kyle Pitts (Sit, TE2)
Drake London managed to garner just four targets last week in a 29-10 victory against the Indianapolis Colts. On a normal day, I would comfortably trust him to bounce back and provide at least WR2 value even as a 2nd or 3rd option behind the tight ends. Weather notwithstanding, the combination of target share and the expected lack of passing volume absolutely hammers his floor like a kid playing Minecraft. Similarly, Jonnu Smith is just too inconsistent to trust unless you absolutely have to. As for Kyle Pitts, I think he could see enough volume to get to TE2 but the quality of targets looks weak enough that I wouldn’t start him.
Chicago Bears
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields (Start, Top 5 QB1)
A matchup against a middling run defense in one of the most favorable run-heavy game script environments? Sounds like an absolutely monster week for the magical legs of Mr. Justin Fields, who comes into this one after putting up RB1-caliber numbers on the ground in two of his last three games. He should have to run even more in this one with the winds of Soldier Field howling; his single-game rushing record could very well be in play this week.
Running Backs
Roschon Johnson (Sit), Khalil Herbert (Sit), D’onta Foreman (Start, Flex)
This backfield is messy and never fun to gauge. D’onta Foreman was “the guy” up until his inactive status last week for personal reasons paved the way for a monster game for Khalil Herbert. Roschon Johnson is completely on the outside looking in as a gamescript-dependent option. I have concerns that Herbert’s effectiveness may have reopened the door to a revolving door approach at running back, but for now, I will trust that Foreman leads the backfield in his return and offers enough floor to come away with Flex value.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
D.J Moore (Sit) Darnell Mooney (Sit) Cole Kmet (Sit)
Talent and matchup are not an issue for any of D.J Moore, Darnell Mooney or Cole Kmet in this one. With the strong winds dictating a run-heavy approach and a game that should stay relatively close, it wouldn’t shock me if Fields attempts less than 15 passes in this one utterly obliterating the floor for all of the Bears receivers. Kmet should see a sizable target share given the expected wind conditions, but the expected low passing volume for the Bears in general significantly lowers the tight end’s ceiling.
Author Addendum: These rankings are only as reliable as the weather situation. If wind projections significantly drop, Heinicke, London, Pitts, Moore and Kmet would all see at least a 1-tier boost to their rankings; all would become starts.
Engram a TE2? He’s #4 scorer in PPR league.
Its not based on what he has done but what we project for him this week. TE range is 5-9.90 points. With Lawrence as questionable, there is reason to believe that Engram might not be as productive as usual. He has been in the TE2 range six times this year
You don’t think gamescript and check downs in the passing game can offer Achane flex appeal with high upside? Especially with waddle out and mostert not 100%.
Every writer has a different read on perceived gamescript, etc. Personally, I’m of the mindset that Achane should outscore Mostert this weekend. However, a tough Baltimore defense limits the ceiling for both, in my eyes. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Do yall think Zeke will outscore Singletary in a non PPR format?
In full PPR, I definitely prefer Zeke…much tougher call in standard formats. I’m torn; Zeke’s snap share is so incredibly high that it’s hard to ignore the sheer volume he’ll see. It comes down to projected gamescript for me. I like the Bills to roll the Pats, and I think Singletary will have a much easier time against TEN with Stroud under center than he did vs CLE last week with Keenum at the helm. I’ll give Singletary my endorsement here. Best of luck, and thanks for reading!
Appreciate the insight. Same thinking on my end. Just see the Pats getting stomped and not having enough time of possession for Zeke to do enough. If I win it’ll be my 4th year in a row to win my home league. Using this site as my primary source!
Been riding Tua all season. Seriously considering benching him for Carr. Is that crazy?
i started lamar jackson, ur dum