Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 22, 4:25 EST
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: Packers -1.5 O/U 44.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Start, QB1)
As with all new relationships, young Love can be a chaotic thing: we had our puppy love stage the first three weeks of this year when all seemed wonderful and everything we hoped for. We overlooked some less desirable traits because, hey, we’re getting what we needed and wanted, a fresh start that’s full of wonder. But then, trouble came creeping in. In the last two weeks before the bye, the bright shiny days of Jordan Love turned to gloomy skies. After a seven touchdown, one interception honeymoon period, Love countered with one touchdown and FIVE picks combined against the Lions and the Raiders. We’re not placing the crosshairs of failure directly on Love entirely, but there weren’t just one or two throws he wished he could have back; there were boatloads. Combined with an at-times inscrutable approach to the game plan (against the Raiders, it seemed Matt LaFleur just decided to force-feed the whole offense through Christian Watson, which wasn’t working all that well), the Packers were a sobbing mess rolling into the off-week. It’s a little early in a relationship to need a break, maybe, but these guys, and Love in particular, absolutely did. But there is light breaking through the clouds: waiting for Jordan on the other side of the bye week is the ideal rebound!
Yes, Jordan Love hasn’t thrown over 250 yards in a game yet. Yes, there were times in that Raider game he didn’t look like ‘a young guy learning’ as much as ‘a guy past the breakers and drowning’. But could a young guy ask for a better pick-up on the rebound than this week? I dare say not. The Broncos currently rank 29th against the pass (giving 268 yards per game and a total of FOURTEEN touchdowns) and are dead last in overall defense. There are six starting quarterbacks on the bye this week. Three are CJ Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott, the other three lead the Titans, Panthers, and Jets. Justin Fields is out, Jimmy G, Danny ‘The Lesser Eli’ Jones, and everyone on the Browns…but PJ Walker is uncertain. Anthony Richardson took the fastest route he could find to the RGIII career path. Between the matchup and the challenge of finding a warm body who can play quarterback, Jordan Love is a great fantasy start this week.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start, RB2), AJ Dillon (Sit, unless – see below)
A large factor in this recommendation is faith in Aaron Jones finally coming back, with a full workload, from a persistent hamstring issue he contracted when rolling over the Bears in Week One. Save for an incredibly sparse usage against the Lions (5 carries. 18 yards, 1 reception for a loss), he’s been on all the social media “the team is flying in and ready to destroy!” posts wearing that big spangly hat, and then switching that our to ‘wearing a sweatshirt on the sidelines’ during the actual game. None of that matters here; The Broncos are dead last against the run (and yes, the ‘172.3 yards per game’ is certainly a touch skewed for the whole year due to that crime scene the Dolphins perpetrated on them), this is the kind of matchup that you put anybody slightly above average at running the ball in and then sit back and smile. As of Tuesday, Jones is practicing, so assuming no setbacks, let’s get ready for Showtime.
To that above-average note, however, AJ Dillon had a good, above-his-average week against the Raiders (20-76-1), but that’s not anything I can trust moving forward. The longest run was 11 yards, and he’s used as a battering ram mostly to generally diminishing returns. He doesn’t have breakaway capabilities, and even as a red zone threat, he’s been ineffective all year – and that’s the one area Denver isn’t dead at the bottom in, pulling in at an astounding* 13th in red zone touchdown rate. BUT, and man does this make me feel a little nauseous, if for whatever reason, Aaron Jones sits again this week, this matchup almost demands we put him in there. Even then, I’m only comfortable with Dillon as a Flex in that situation.
*I mean, considering who we’re talking about here
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Watson (Start, WR2), Romeo Doubs (Start, WR3), Jayden Reed (Start, Flex), Luke Musgrave (Sit, TE2)
Christian Watson had his first impactful fantasy outing the last we saw him, delivering a solid 91 yards in the game – however, 77 of those were on one broken play that should have resulted in a touchdown save for some light horse-collaring. He only pulled in three receptions on seven targets, however…whether it was LaFleur or Love, nearly the entire comeback drive felt focused on Watson. With a terrible week for fantasy and in the real world for Romeo Doubs in that same outing, I would expect Green Bay to hit their most explosive receiver in Watson early and set a tone. Doubs meanwhile had his worst outing of the year in that Las Vagas game, only snaring one ball out of four targets. That was a weirdly called game, from the Packers’ side of things, I wouldn’t expect that to be the start of a trend (as comparison, in the previous two games, Doubs saw 13 and 12 targets, respectively). I’ll keep hitting on this point: this is an OUTSTANDING game opportunity for the Green Bay receivers, and with six teams on the couch eating nacho piles this week, I’m running all of the top three options in some capacity. I’d expect Romeo to see more opportunities in a week which should see a lot of passing attempts. The third man up, Jayden Reed, has been seeing a considerably smaller percentage of targets compared to Doubs and now Watson, but he has made things happen with the chances he has had – he’s an exciting rookie with a lot of room to grow, but with what he already contributes, this is a great flex play.
Luke Musgrave has been a feast-or-famine play all season, as long as your definition of ‘feast’ is ‘I thought I was getting more with this order’. To this point, he’s been successful as a short-yardage/safety net player, and that’s perfectly fine for a rookie tight end, but with a top line this year of 6/8/49, don’t expect game-breaking numbers from Musgrave yet. It’s a good matchup regardless, so if you are strapped for a guy, I can understand giving Luke a desperation Start nod, but with those qualifications.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Sit)
Let Russ be cooked. The Green Bay Packers’ defense has its concerns, but passing defense isn’t one of them. Currently second to the Browns in overall air yards allowed (972 total), tied for eight in yards per attempt (6.0) and also tied for second in touchdowns allowed (4), this is an awful matchup for the fading memory of Russell Wilson. Last week Russ faced a Chiefs defense with pretty similar effectiveness in the passing game, and rewarded those brazen enough to still believe with a killer 95 yards on 13 for 22 passing – and two picks! It maybe wasn’t JUST the coaching last year – or maybe it’s still the coaching this year, but watching Wilson is akin to watching a time-lapse film of erosion but in real time. We can see what nature and time are doing to a once majestic creation, but there’s not nothing we can do about it but maybe get a little sad. And then change the channel.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Start, RB2), Jaleel McLaughlin (Start, Flex), Samaje Perine (Drop)
Let’s move to something more positive, shall we? Bounding back from an injury that kept him out for a week and most of the previous, Javonte Williams returned to his lead back position against the Chiefs and had his most productive outing of this season, rolling for 52 yards on 10 carries with a season-high 18-yard run and a two-point conversion. Great news for Javonte believers, and while last week’s more measured split of carries with the speedy and more compact rookie Jaleel McLaughlin, I think this will benefit both backs. Not needing to shoulder the whole load will hopefully let Javonte continue to get (and stay) healthy as the season goes by, while McLaughlin isn’t forced into a lead-back role he (and the offensive scheme) isn’t quite ready for yet, and he gets a little space to develop.
That said, from the Broncos I’ve watched this year, I might be giving Sean Payton a lot more credit than he deserves with regard to ‘having a plan’ and not ‘lapsing into a fugue state where he thinks he’s still coaching the Saints ten years ago.’ However, I’m going to keep this entry in the sunshine! Green Bay is 21st in the league in total yards allowed to rushers (717), 22nd in yards per carry (4.3), and has given up 6 ground touchdowns to date. This is a better-than-average matchup for the Broncos backfield, and common sense and decency offer the clear route to any Denver success: a heavier focus on running against the Packers this week. I like both these guys – my only ‘if’ on this is that either could sneak into the endzone and flip the projections above, but I give the better production prognostication nod to Javonte. He should maintain a slight edge over Jaleel in carries, and he’s got a bit more experience.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR3), Jerry Jeudy (Sit), Marvin Mims (Sit), Adam Trautman (Sit) Greg Dulcich (Sit, Flex In A Desperation Situation)
Let’s start with this, yet another high-water mark in the career of HOF trash talker, Steve Smith Sr. :
It’s been an eventful evening on NFL Network for Steve Smith Sr.
Here he is absolutely BLASTING Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy on a TNF pregame report. ???? pic.twitter.com/5ZmQJhgMLj
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) October 13, 2023
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Jerry Jeudy responded with a very convincing fourteen yards on five targets. It was a game with little success for all of the Denver receivers, but I’m in general in favor of avoiding Jeudy in fantasy formats, because he never seems to live up to that WR2 draft position, even with all the raw WR1 talent he’s shown to have. He NEEDS a new start somewhere else because he and the Broncos just don’t click. In a week against a top-tier pass defense, which they have this week, I’d prefer to run with Courtland Sutton. Jeudy should pull J’aire Alexander off for more than a few plays during this game, and Courtland has shown more aptitude for the end zone this year, scoring in three of their five games. So grit those teeth and hope he sneaks one out again this week. Similar to my thoughts on Jeudy, this is a bad matchup for Marvin Mims as well. As exciting as he is in limited appearances this season, in the past three games Mims has been targeted a TOTAL of three times, with zero against the Chiefs, nor even a sniff of a gadget play usage in any of those three either. Reserve usage until further notice.
On the tight end side of things, the return of Greg Dulcich to the lineup last week led to a true split in production with linemate and human filler Adam Trautman. Each received two targets, each catching one of them, and they combined for seven yards of offense. Also, Dulcich left the game after pulling his hammy again. GAME CHANGING. This isn’t the worst matchup for the position with Green Bay’s main two across the middle, De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker, currently sitting out practices. If you’re down by bye weeks, MAYBE run Dulcich in a flex, assuming he’s back and semi-healthy again, and hope he has some safety net production. Odds are high that the free agent pool offers better options.