Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 22nd, 4:05 PM ET
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Betting Odds: SEA -7.5, O/U 44.5 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Nick Beaudoin (I don’t have Twitter)
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
Josh Dobbs (Start, Low-QB2)
Josh Dobbs’ improbable run as a QB1 has come back to earth the past two weeks, with Arizona losing its third straight to Los Angeles last Sunday. Unfortunately for Dobbs, his challenge doesn’t get any easier this week, as he heads to Seattle to face a young, talented Seahawks defense.
On paper, this looks like a solid matchup, with the Seahawks coming into the week ranking bottom-11 in PPG to opposing QBs. However, rookie CB Devon Witherspoon seems to be improving every week, currently ranking as PFF’s 3rd-overall corner this season, with a defensive grade of 84.4. On the other side, CB Tre Brown boasts the fourth-highest coverage grade at 83.2. Both CBs come in the top 20 in coverage grades.
The Seattle defense came out slow last week, allowing 142 yards and two touchdowns on Cincinnati’s first two drives, but after making a few adjustments, they held Joe Burrow and Co. to just 87 yards and three points (and two interceptions) for the rest of the game. With the third-lowest team implied point total (17), I expect the Seattle defense to build on this momentum, and for Dobbs and the entire Arizona offense to struggle, especially with the absence of James Conner. With that being said, Dobbs’ rushing upside (31.5 yards/game) and heavy passing volume continue to keep him in low-end QB2 territory each week.
Running Backs
James Conner (Out, IR), Keontay Ingram (Start, FLEX), Emari Demercado (Sit, FLEX), Damien Williams (Out, Practice Squad)
Okay. Let’s try to untangle this mess.
Keontay Ingram led the backfield last week with 51 yards on 12 touches, followed by Damien Williams (what a throwback) with 44 yards on nine touches, and way off in the distance was waiver-wire hero Emari Demercado, gaining 17 yards on three touches. If you dive even deeper into the statistics, it was Demercado who led all three RBs in playing time, on the field for 43% of snaps, followed by Ingram at 37%, and Williams at 17%. Go figure.
Let’s also take into consideration that almost all of Williams’s touches came in the first half, and once the game was out of control, it was Demercado who took over, serving mostly as an outlet receiver. To top it all off – they all had at least one catch, but it was Ingram (who many consider the worst receiver of the trio) leading the way with two receptions.
Although Seattle is middling against opposing RBs this season, there is nothing safe about this backfield or game script this week. Fortunately, we’ve been granted a little clarity with the practice information, as Damien Williams has been reverted back to the practice squad, so we can (hopefully) take him out of the equation, but it’s worth monitoring his status come game day. Ingram looked the best with his opportunities, so we can expect him to lead the team in carries and be the goal-line back. Demercado should be on the field late and potentially on third downs, assuming the Cardinals are playing from behind. They could both be considered FLEX-worthy due to their roles in the offense, but are both low-floor, low-ceiling options this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Marquise Brown (Start, WR2), Michael Wilson (Sit, FLEX), Rondale Moore (Sit), Zach Ertz (Sit, TE2), Trey McBride (Sit, TE2)
Despite a down week against the Rams last Sunday, Marquise Brown still comes in at WR16 on the season. Hollywood should be started regardless of matchup, but no matter where he lines up, he will have his hands full with this Seattle secondary this week. PFF projects most of his snaps to come in the slot against Devon Witherspoon, with his next most likely matchup going to Tre Brown. With that being said, this game script is everything you can hope for in a fantasy football WR – a top-tier talent averaging 10.3 targets/game (in his last three games), coming in as heavy underdogs. Brown is a WR2 based on volume and game script, with WR1 upside if he can find the end zone.
Michael Wilson’s matchups this week are equally as poor, where we can assume a healthy dose of CB’s Tre Brown and Tariq Woolen. Wilson has shown us big-play ability in limited opportunity, however, neither of these matchups favor him. As a player who has only seen four and two targets in the past two games, Wilson is a low-floor, low-ceiling FLEX play this week due to (potential) volume and game script. I do like Wilson as a talent, and I believe he will have some late-season appeal, but with the Ravens and Browns on deck, his best days may still be ahead of him.
The Cardinals incorporated a lot of Rondale Moore in their game plan last week, feeding him seven touches (including three carries), however, this all resulted in a typical finish of 26 scoreless yards. Despite seeing more usage this week, Moore’s low ADOT keeps his floor and ceiling dangerously low each week. He is at best the fourth option in the team’s eyes, and can leave him on your bench/waivers.
Zach Ertz remains the starter for the Cardinals, but has cooled off quite a bit recently, with only four receptions and 32 yards (with one touchdown) in the past two games. Trey McBride has quietly been increasing in playing time, out-snapping and outperforming Ertz last week, gaining 62 yards on four receptions. This may be the start of the takeover for McBridge, but his usage has been inconsistent, and Seattle’s defense is sixth against fantasy TEs. It will be best to look for upside elsewhere this week.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (Start, High-QB2)
Although the Seahawks enter the week at 3-2, Geno Smith still has fantasy managers upset, coming in 23rd in PPG. Most people will be quick to dump Geno, however, if there is a “get right” game in store, this could be it. The Cardinals are bottom-5 in PPG to opposing QBs, they were down two starting safeties last week in Budda Baker (IR – hamstring) and Jalen Thompson (hamstring), and both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have highly favorable matchups on the outside. The Seahawks have the third-highest team-implied point total on the slate this week (26), and I expect Pete Carroll to build Geno’s confidence back up with a bounce back this week. Geno is a good streaming option and a safe QB2 against the Cardinals.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker (Start, RB1), Zach Charbonnet (Sit)
Kenneth Walker comes into the week as RB8 in PPG, playing 64% of the Seahawks’ snaps and averaging 18.8 touches/game. The Cardinals are bottom-3 in PPG to fantasy RBs, and the Seahawks enter as -7.5 point favorites. Every statistic possible (yes, including the eye test) leans another RB1 performance for Walker.
Zach Charbonnet was a DNP on Wednesday with a hamstring injury. He remains one of the league’s most valuable (and still unknown to many) handcuffs, but he still only played 24% of snaps last week, mustering four total touches for 19 yards. I do expect his usage to increase as the season goes on, but it hasn’t reached a point where we can trust him for fantasy purposes yet.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
DK Metcalf (Start, WR1), Tyler Lockett (Start, WR2), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sit, FLEX), Noah Fant (Sit), Willy Dissly (Sit), Colby Parkinson (Sit)
DK Metcalf hasn’t quite lived up to fantasy expectations this year, but is still having a solid year, coming in at WR25 in PPG. After watching this game last week, it was easy to recognize that there were several plays that almost happened that would have changed the day dramatically, and I’m expecting some positive regression this week. Metcalf is (more often than not) the target leader and deep threat for this team (10 targets last week), and his matchups line up well against CBs Kei’Trell Clark and Marco Wilson, who respectively rank 100th and 107th (out of 116 qualified, according to PFF). Arizona’s safety room is also banged up, so I am fully expecting Metcalf to redeem himself with a few big plays this week. He was a DNP on Wednesday, but he has been playing through injury all year. Fire up DK as a WR1 against Arizona.
In what is truly more of a WR1-B than a WR2, Tyler Lockett is still one of my favorite receivers in the NFL. In last week’s loss to Cincinnati, he was used all over the field, finishing with six receptions on eight targets for 94 yards – including a huge 32-yard reception late in the fourth quarter, giving Seattle a chance to win the game (Spoiler alert: They didn’t). Lockett is averaging seven targets/game, and has a highly favorable matchup against CB Marco Wilson this week. He was limited in practice on Wednesday, but we can expect him to play on Sunday. His volume will keep him in the WR2 range, but he also has WR1 upside this week.
The only Seattle WR without a favorable matchup (according to PFF) will be Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN plays 76% of his snaps in the slot, which is projected to be against Arizona’s best coverage CB, Antonio Hamilton Sr. (26th of 116). Seattle made an effort to get him involved last week with four receptions for 48 yards (five targets), but as the clear WR3 on this team, unless they move Hamilton to the outside to cover one of the above, there is no reason to believe he will begin his fantasy relevance this week. For the record, I hope I’m wrong. I’m really excited to see him get going in the NFL.
The Seahawks TE room remains as clear as mud, with the three of them combining for 31 yards on five receptions last week. Colby Parkinson led the way with 16 yards on three receptions, so do with that as you will. Now, the reason I bring that up is because that was against the Bengals, who came into the week ranking 3rd-lowest in PPG to opposing TEs. The Cardinals on the other hand, (surprisingly) enter this week as the 3rd-best. Just stay away.
– Nick Beaudoin