Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 22nd, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Betting Odds: LV -3, 37.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: Fox
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcaim on Reddit)
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Tyson Bagent (Sit)
Tyson Bagent replaced the injured Justin Fields last week. Bagent is looking to get the start this week while Fields and his thumb recover. My expectations are low for Bagent, who completed 10-14 passes for 83 yards last week. I’m not starting Bagent under almost all circumstances.
Running Backs
Roschon Johnson (Start if Healthy, Low-RB2), D’Onta Foreman (Start if Johnson is Out, Flex)
Last week I mentioned how Roschon Johnson will probably miss Week 6 due to concussion protocol. I was hopeful he’d play this week, but as of Wednesday, he’s still in concussion protocol. With Johnson still being in the protocol I’m doubtful he’ll play this week. If he does, I have his output slightly higher than D’Onta Foreman. It is a favorable matchup with the Raiders giving up an average of 17 points per game to running backs, the 12th-highest in the league. That combined with the questionable quarterback, the starting running back whether it is Johnson or Foreman, should get volume. I worry that the volume won’t be enough here, I’m mostly looking elsewhere for running backs this week than Chicago.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DJ Moore (Start, WR2), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Tyler Scott (Sit), Cole Kmet (Sit, TE2)
I was already very down on most pass catchers in Chicago besides DJ Moore (we’ll get to him), but now with Tyson Bagent at the helm, I can’t start Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott, or even Cole Kmet with much confidence. Mooney at least caught two of his three targets last week, an improvement from catching zero of four the week prior. The Kmet Comet had his far and aware worst game of the season last week, only catching two balls for nine yards. The Kmet floor is low with his upside of being an end zone pass catcher. Kmet has seven red zone targets this year, the fourth-highest amongst tight ends. You play him for his touchdown upside but do so knowing his floor is very low.
As for DJ Moore, I mentioned that week that the Chicago Bears offense operates through him, and I still stand by that mantra. If this offense is cooking it’s through Moore. The problem this week is I don’t know how much I expect the Bears offense to cook with Bagent as head chef. The Raiders are above-average against wide receivers, allowing 19 points per game good for the eleventh-fewest in the league. Moore still led the team with eight targets last week, bringing in five of them for 51 yards. Moore has WR1 Upside, but as is the story of his career, he’s limited by his quarterback so I consider him more likely a WR2 play.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Aidan O’Connell (Sit), Brian Hoyer (Sit)
The Raiders are expected to be cautious with Jimmy Garoppolo after his injury last week. I’m not sure Aidan O’Connell, who was inactive last week or Brian Hoyer will get the start this week, but either way, I’m staying away from this mess of a quarterback room this week.
If due to bye weeks, bad luck, or any other twist of karma, you find yourself stuck between whoever starts for the Raiders or Tyson Bagent I’d go with whoever starts for the Raiders this week.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB1), Zamir White (Sit)
Zamir White hasn’t been fantasy-viable all season and that doesn’t change this week.
Josh Jacobs on the other hand is the only player in this matchup I have any confidence in. The Bears allow 21 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the fourth-highest in the NFL. With both teams sending second-stringers out to play quarterback I expect lots of the ground game this week. Jacobs has had two top-six finishes over the last three weeks. I’m expecting him to add a third feather to that cap.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR2), Jakobi Meyers (Start, High-WR2), Hunter Renfrow (Sit), Michael Mayer (Start, TE1)
What’s going on with Davante Adams? After putting up 172 yards and two touchdowns on 13 catches in Week 3 he has a combined 149 yards for zero touchdowns in 14 catches in his three games since. His most recent game was the biggest offender with five targets for a mere two catches for 29 yards. My best guess is Adams is still feeling the effects of his shoulder injury that’s kept him from practicing over the last two weeks. The bad gets worse as it looks like Jimmy Garoppolo will almost certainly miss this week’s game. Is Adams truly as quarterback-proof as we thought? This week is the test. For talent reasons alone you almost always have to start him, but I’m lowering my expectations. Is it crazy to seriously consider starting someone like Curtis Samuel (averaging 17 ppg over the last three weeks) over Davante Adams (averaging 9.6 ppg over the last three weeks)? I don’t think so.
Over the last two weeks, Jakobi Meyers has 17 targets to Davante’s 9. Meyers is a top-15 WR in each of the last two weeks. Going all the way back to the start of the season, Meyers had finished outside the top-25 once. Of course, all of that was with Jimmy G, the change at quarterback could throw a wrench into Jakobi’s production. Nevertheless, I have more confidence in Meyers than I do in Adams. And yes, I would start Meyers over Adams this week.
Remember Hunter Renfrow? He hasn’t been relevant all season, and that doesn’t change today, but let’s take a moment to remember Renfrow’s 2021 season when he finished as WR10. Those were the days.
It’s spooky season, just in time for Michael Mayer(s) to be fantasy-relevant. Mayer had an 18.7% target share and played 81% of snaps this week. He caught five of six targets for 75 yards. I mentioned Mayer in this week’s Waiver article, I’m very high on Mayer this week and for the rest of the season.