Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, October 23, at 8:15 PM EST
Location: U.S Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: SF -7 O/U 44 Total via PFF.com
Network: ABC, ESPN, ESPN DEPORTES
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
*Before we get down to business, let me say this: when I signed up to cover this game a month ago, it was supposed to be the easy one. CMC – RB1, Jetta -WR1, sprinkle in some Deebo, some consistent Kirk. This is why I both love and hate football in equal measure and have an incredible headache most of the time after Week 3 or 4. Onward.”
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (Start, QB1)
So it’s not that I hate Brock Purdy, or that I actively want him to fail or get his comeuppance so that we can all say ‘AHA! We told you he wasn’t real!‘ It’s that I desperately want Kyle Shanahan to be wrong. I need to see him physically eat one of his hats at a press conference. Maybe it’s all I’ve ever wanted to see, so my vehemence has found the wrong guy as a result. Time to put all of that aside.
I don’t think Brock is a one-man show, but for fantasy purposes, he doesn’t need to be. The Minnesota Vikings have given up nine passing touchdowns on the year so far, and rank in the back half of yards given up to opposing passers. Even if he misses two regular contributors from his all-star supporting cast, Purdy will be just fine this week. While the Cleveland Browns’ defense is an angry, rabid thing, especially in gross weather, the Vikings are kind of a mess, and middle-of-the-road, defensively. Purdy has been a solid fantasy starter the other four weeks of the year, so it’s time to just trust him. In a Week 7 quarterback landscape that features several bye weeks and multiple injuries to starters, expect Purdy to earn a Top 10-12 quarterback with a commensurate point total.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey * (Start, RB1), Jordan Mason (Start* Flex), Elijah Mitchell (Sit*), Kyle Juszcyk
As of Wednesday, there’s an optimistic chance of Christian McCaffrey playing through an oblique injury. If CMC is playing on Monday night in full chain-mail armor and somebody else’s ribs taped to the outside of his own, you start him. The guy is incredible, and if he’s in, he’s a lock. I don’t even downgrade to an RB2, he performs when he touches the field, so until proven otherwise, expect great things against a Vikings’ run defense that’s 18th in total yards gifted out this year. But, suppose he’s out. What then? Well, it’s too small of a puddle of water to wet your feet, but it seems like Jordan Mason has eclipsed Elijah Mitchell as the 49ers’ handcuff/injury-induced starter, at least for now, which is wild to me. Maybe Mitchell’s own recent injury is a factor, but before McCaffrey got there, Eli was evil in that backfield, though susceptible to the same half-season of injuries of his predecessors, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, Jr. If McCaffrey is out, I’d bump Mason to an RB2 and Mitchell to a Flex — and with six teams on bye this week, assuming Shanahan follows his own pace so far, I’d still like Mason in the flex regardless; he’s bound to pick up a few extra downs to limit McCaffrey’s exposure even if he does play. If San Fran can pull away early, there should be plenty of late-game opportunities for the new second-in-line.
I was considering including Kyle Juszcyk in the header here, but I cannot in good conscience talk about fullbacks. He’s had three carries all season and six catches for a total of 39 yards and one touchdown. I wouldn’t even roster him on your little brother’s fantasy team.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Brandon Aiyuk (Start, WR1), Deebo Samuel * (Start, Flex), Jauan Jennings (Sit*), George Kittle (Start TE1)
Let’s start with our lone, definitive ‘yes please, may I have some more?’ start here: Brandon Aiyuk. He’s a must-start at this point. Aiyuk’s lack of touchdowns since Week 1 is the only knock keeping him from a WR1 projection, but consider that he pulled in 76 yards against the Browns, and 58 the week previous against Dallas; those are two of the Top 5 passing defenses in the NFL. Against a less effective squad, such as the Cardinals in Week 3, Brandon broke out for 148. This is a far better comp for the Vikings’ pass defense, which sits at 20th in yards allowed for the season. With a likelihood of increased targets with a non-100% Deebo Samuel around (or a Deebo-free outing), I like Aiyuk to eclipse 100 yards and a touchdown against this middling Vikings pass defense.
On to the aforementioned Deebo – I don’t like running him out there, even if there’s progress with the shoulder this week, I suspect he’ll be at least semi-limited, rendering him to ‘Decoy’ rather than ‘Deebo’ usage. Still, it’s a decent matchup, so if he’s in, he should fit somewhere into your lineup; just temper expectations until he gets a full all-clear. Jauan Jennings is the fifth leading receiver on the 49ers, but his season total of 12 targets is a significant drop-off from the big four ahead of him: Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC (Kittle has the lowest total; 25). If Samuel sits, I’d consider putting Jennings in a flex spot in a super-tight ‘I’m desperate for a guy, any guy that is going to see the field and a few looks’ situation, but outside of that, he’s a bencher. If you drafted George Kittle, you did so early and likely didn’t take another tight end until Tyler Conklin began staring uncomfortably at you in the 15th round. Kittle has had a couple of great weeks (against the Giants), an unabated soul-eater (67 yards and three scores against Dallas), and three weeks we won’t talk about out of respect to his family. The great news is if the trend continues, he’s due for one of his great weeks, and injured/out Deebo should only add to his chances. A no-doubt start.
* Potentially out with injury
**Others’ injury status dependent
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (Start, QB2)
You see what I said about Brock Purdy and misguided rage up above? Good. Twice this season, I’ve covered Vikings games. Twice, I’ve gone against all my better instincts, looked at all of the stats, historical performances, and metrics, and told you (and myself) that the data unequivocally tells us that Kirk Cousins is a man you can trust in your fantasy league. Put him in and don’t look back!
Take all of that and burn it in a raging tire fire. 8.74 points, Kirk. you brought me 8.74 points. You’re a quarterback. You weren’t hurt. You were up against the Chicago Bears, my man. Did you not even try? Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings are the perfect epitome of a failing Midwestern marriage: both sides are incredibly sad and everybody can see it. Nobody is reaching their potential, one is too afraid to move on and grow and the other thinks it’s all going to get better if they keep saying it will be…so they are just stuck there, spinning their wheels in perpetual glum misery. CAN’T YOU SEE HOW THIS IS AFFECTING YOUR CHILDR…er, FANS?!? Anyway, Cousins sucks. He’s always sucked, even when he’s good. Put your shirt on, fool.
The 49ers have the league’s 10th-ranked passing defense, one that’s allowing 197.8 yards a game and has given up only five touchdowns. I want to tell you to sit Kirk in a less-than-great matchup, as he’s missing a major key to the offense here. That would be irresponsible because then he’ll definitely throw for 455 yards and five scores. That’s just how this works. Look, I can’t put him at a QB1 — this offense just doesn’t have a combo to effectively replace Justin Jefferson, and that’s going to make it hard going for a while. San Francisco is going to come at Cousins hard after an ugly loss to the Browns last week, but garbage time should lift Cousins into the passable QB2 range this week.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison (Start, RB2), Cam Akers (Sit)
It’s clear now that the Cam Akers trade was done to directly light a flame (a small, non-threatening flame, but a flame nonetheless) under Alexander Mattison. After three weeks, it’s abundantly clear that Mattison is the starter and the lead back here, and Akers decidedly is not. While Mattison isn’t particularly dominant on the ground, he’s seeing a lot more work than Akers and contributes receiving yards to the effort, not to an astounding volume, but enough to push his all-purpose (and fantasy viability) into respectable statistical ranges. Usually. Dutifully noted, Mattison has been on the low end of fantasy production the last two weeks, and this RB2 recommend is VERY much on the low end of that point range; I’m expecting more Mattison in the short-range passing game in a tough matchup and combining that with hopes for a mid-range rushing yards outcome. With his projected total right on the cusp, I leaned towards dropping him to a FLEX, but settled on low-end RB2, mostly because there are six teams getting rest this week and a LOT of regular fantasy starters unavailable. Mattison sees more carries than most, so as they say, “sometimes, availability is the best ability.” Except for Cam Akers. Sometimes, guys are just bench-worthy. There’s nothing wrong with that, Cam. It still pays the bills.
Wide Receivers/ Tight End
Jordan Addison (Start, WR3), K.J. Osborn (Start, Flex), Brandon Powell (Sit), TJ Hockenson (Start, TE1)
Pro Football Focus’ WR/CB matchup tool has all three of the Vikings receivers slotted for terrible outings this week, and that holds hands nicely with how I’m feeling it’ll go against a Niners’ squad that has only allowed four passing touchdowns and ranks 11th overall in yards conceded in the air. First, to the easy one: TJ Hockenson is the Vikings second-leading receiver in both targets (47) and yards (304). The guy ranked first in those categories is doing The Griddy from his couch while his fantasy owners are looking for side gigs to replace their smashed tablets. Hock is the one proven receiving commodity Minnesota can absolutely trust for now, so you should do the same. In the previous two games (the beginning of the post-Jetta portion of this season, if you will), both K.J. Osborn and Jordan Addison have seen equal targets in each game (nine each against the Chiefs when Jefferson went out, and five each against the Bears). Osborn has been more consistent with those, notching 49 and 48 yards on consecutive weeks, while Addison was a little more varied (64 and 28 yards respectively). Most importantly for our purposes, he also saw the endzone both weeks.
In a tough matchup, I like Addison a bit more than Osborn here because he’s the more dynamic player from what I’ve watched. Finding a temporary home in the end zone is a fairly important factor here. It’s a thin week with the byes, so we’re looking to get points by all means necessary. On the not-recommended side, Jefferson’s injury has certainly increased Brandon Powell’s target totals (six and four the past couple of weeks, compared to one total across the previous three). However, he’s not a fantasy factor; one “okay” outing against the Chiefs doesn’t make up for the fact I was completely surprised to learn that this is his sixth year in the league. I wasn’t surprised to learn he’s on his fourth team. Pass.