Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 22nd, 4:05 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: LAR -3, O/U 44.5 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99 on Twitter)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback
Kenny Pickett (Sit)
Pickett comes into this game fresh off a huge late passing TD to George Pickens and not much else. Pickett was 18/32 in the matchup against Baltimore and stacked up just 224 passing yards in the affair. Granted, he was playing against a ferocious Baltimore defense, as the Ravens rank 2nd among all defenses in DVOA this season, which depressed his stats. Meanwhile, whatever offensive talent Pickett might have is being depressed by Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada, so Pickett’s numbers have barely changed from week to week in terms of passing yardage and TDs. Regardless of matchup quality — the Texans and Raiders rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive DVOA — Pickett is going to get you about 200 or so passing yards and a touchdown or two, putting him squarely in the “sit unless you’re desperate for 14 points and not a lick more” category. I wouldn’t want to take my chances against a defense led by the likes of Aaron Donald.
Running Backs
Najee Harris (Flex), Jaylen Warren (Flex, very fringe RB2)
It doesn’t get much more difficult than this for the Steelers’ running backs. The Rams boast an above-average run defense (11th in ESPN’s run-stop win rate) and rank as one of the least favorable run matchups this week. so I don’t expect either player to pour on the fantasy points.
Najee Harris is, unfortunately for Warren investors, still very much present in this offense. In his last two games, Harris has carried the rock 14 times each, with varying levels of success (71 and 37 yards, respectively). As long as Harris is getting 10+ carries behind this middling offensive line, he’s worth flex consideration, but like his QB teammate, it projects to be a very boring 6-9 fantasy points each game. At some point, Harris is going to score a TD and return more than Flex value for once, but it’s hard to predict when that might be, considering that the Steelers have given Harris and Warren a combined 5 carries in the red zone (Harris with the slight 3-2 edge), and no Steelers RB has scored a TD on the ground this season. Yet.
I think Warren is a higher-end Flex play this week given the extremely unfavorable ground matchup; the Steelers may look to shift some of that running work to short passing plays to keep the ball away from Aaron Donald. Additionally, given that the Rams are home favorites — albeit only by 3, the same amount at which it opened a few days ago — the Steelers may be fighting a negative game script, and will have to try to push the ball downfield through the air. Warren is the only back seeing significant receiving work, so the targets are going to be his to lose.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
George Pickens (Start, WR3), Pat Freiermuth (Sit), Allen Robinson (Sit, Flex), Calvin Austin (Sit)
George Pickens leads a grimly underutilized receiving corps into this matchup. On the bright side, Pickens is fresh off a monster game against Baltimore, turning 10 targets into 6 receptions, 130 yards, and a go-ahead TD. Last week, Pickens saw a certifiably WR1-type workload, but the hesitation to rate him that highly is because his workload varies so heavily from week to week that it’s difficult to predict a fantasy score out of him. In Week 2, against Cleveland, who has one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, Pickens had nearly identical numbers to last week, yet followed that up with an 11.5 fantasy point performance (full PPR) against Las Vegas, a bad passing defense. I expect his numbers to approach a workload similar to the one against Vegas since he’s more often around that level of attention and production and the matchup is fairly average, putting him squarely in WR3 territory with plenty of upside.
Pat Freiermuth hasn’t put it all together this year. There’s minimal receiving yardage to speak of here, and his value is buoyed by the red zone work and the fact that one 20-yard catch puts TEs in the top 20 for the week. It’s difficult to see that red zone work reliably continuing, especially since he’s just not seeing many targets. He’s not even in TE2 territory this week because he has a below-average matchup against LAR LB Ernest Jones and has only had 1 game with more than 7 receiving yards. He has prior chemistry with Pickett that makes him worth keeping an eye on, but not until he establishes more of a valuable fantasy connection this season.
Allen Robinson suddenly reappeared this week for 9 targets, a season-high. He had 8 in the season opener against San Francisco and then dropped off to average 3 targets…and then went back up to 9 again? Is there a pattern I’m missing? At any rate, I don’t expect Robinson to garner another 8 or 9 targets this week, but he might have enough to merit FLEX consideration. It’s a dart throw at best, especially since his matchup is graded as particularly weak.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (QB2)
Stafford cruised out to 226 yards and a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. He didn’t have to do too much in the second half of the game, as the Rams went to Kyren Williams a ton in the second half. This week, with the thought that this week is supposed to be a tighter competition, I expect Stafford to see a slight boost in numbers over the weeks prior. Negating some of that favorable game script is the fact that Stafford faces an always-dangerous Steelers pass rush, but another week to build chemistry with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua together, especially if he’s passing for all four quarters, should help him return value.
Running Backs
Zach Evans (Sit, Flex), Royce Freeman (Sit)
The main reason I see all three as “Sit” options is because I think they’re going to share the workload, eating into one another’s value. Plus, the Rams just added Myles Gaskin to the active roster and signed Darrell Henderson, the latter of whom has extensive experience in this offense. Gaskin has some NFL experience as well, so either of these two newly-signed veterans is likely to get a few carries as opposed to being strictly insurance policies. I expect this to be a headache of a backfield in Week 7, to say the least. Williams ended up with 20 carries last week in a run-heavy script, while Evans took on 4 carries. It’s a slight positive for Evans investors that he’s already seen work with the big-league club, as opposed to Freeman, who was activated from the practice squad this week, while Gaskin is brand new to the Rams, having just come off the Vikings’ practice squad. Splitting 20-ish carries between Evans, Freeman, and Gaskin with a slight favor to Evans, gives Evans a Flex-type workload (12 carries or so?). It’s difficult to forecast a ton of value for Evans, given the uncertainty over his role and the relative lack of volume.
That said, if managers believe Evans is going to take a larger share of the workload, then the fantasy matchup is pretty solid for Evans, and he could push RB2 value. The Steelers rank among the Top 8 in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. They’re allowing one of the highest yards-per-rush attempt clips in the league, and by volume, the Steelers are among the worst in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. If Evans gets the running opportunities, he could turn them into a decently productive fantasy day, especially if he can find the end zone. It’s not a bad dart to throw if you need some serious running back help. Ultimately, keep a close eye on practice reports as we get closer to game time on Sunday. It’s certainly plausible that one running back could get the lion’s share of the workload, making that player a startable, if uninspiring, option.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Cooper Kupp (WR1), Puka Nacua (WR2), Tyler Higbee (TE2), Tutu Atwell (Sit)
Cooper Kupp has been dominant. You’re starting him as WR1 regardless of matchup, so it doesn’t really matter whether Pittsburgh is one of the most favorable fantasy matchups for opposing WRs (it is).
I’m still rolling with Puka Nacua. Like I said earlier, the Rams moved into a run-happy script in the second half as they pulled away from Arizona, and that ate into everyone’s targets. Accordingly, I’m not worried about the depressed target numbers from last week. More encouragingly, Nacua has had a comparable number of targets to Kupp in the two games they’ve had together (Kupp had 9 to Nacua’s 7 in the most recent game, and it was 12-11, respectively, against the Eagles two weeks ago). Kupp’s have been a little bit further downfield and thus, have made him slightly more valuable for fantasy. But even if Nacua isn’t averaging 17 yards per reception, like his teammate, there’s still plenty to like in his profile that makes him worth starting. Matthew Stafford clearly still looks Nacua’s way quite a bit, evidenced by his target share, and has developed some red-zone chemistry with him over the last couple of weeks, with TDs in 2 of their last 3 games. Nacua isn’t going to return WR1 value most weeks without a TD anymore, but he still warrants WR2 status on workload alone.
Kupp and Nacua have gobbled up the vast majority of Stafford’s passing looks recently, so you’re hoping and praying for a TD to return value if you’re starting Tyler Higbee or Tutu Atwell. In the last two games, with Kupp in the fold, Atwell and Higbee have combined for a meager 7 receptions, 77 yards, and 1 TD. I’d look elsewhere this week.