Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 22nd, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Betting Odds: BUF -6.5, 41 total via Odds Shark
Network: CBS
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
If you have Josh Allen, you’re starting him every single week, no questions asked. Allen is a top-three quarterback in fantasy football and has dominated this year, averaging 22 PPG. Although the Patriots have held opposing QBs to 13.41 PPG, this shouldn’t be an issue.
The only way Allen could have a bad game is because the Bills are blowing the Patriots out of the water. Having a closer and higher-scoring game would be nice, but you’re starting Allen no matter what.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Flex)
James Cook has had a rough past two games, but he should still be viewed as an RB2 this week. Unfortunately, Damien Harris is unlikely to play, but in a game where the Bills should lead, this helps Cook. Cook is viewed as the receiving back but didn’t draw a single target in week six. However, I expect that to change this week.
Instead, Cook was incredibly efficient on the ground with 14 carries, averaging 5.1 YPC. The Bills should get up early on the Patriots, allowing them to run the ball a ton this game.
This is one of the only weeks I would recommend starting Latavius Murray, but only as a low-end flex. Murray isn’t a great talent, but he did see 12 carries last week without Harris. Since the Bills should run the ball very often, there should be a small slice of the pie for Murray. If you are hurting due to all of the players on bye, Murray could be a worthwhile option.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, WR3), Trent Sherfield (Sit), Dawson Knox (Sit), Dalton Kincaid (Sit)
Just like Allen, if you have Stefon Diggs on your team, he’s automatically a start. Diggs is a top-three wide receiver this week for me despite this low-scoring contest. When you have a guy averaging 23.2 PPG, he deserves to be locked in as a top-five receiver every week.
Gabe Davis isn’t very appealing this week, as he has been utilized more as a deep threat with a ton of touchdown upside. This game script is the exact opposite of what Davis is good at, with an over/under of only 41 points. Even so, Davis is a talented player in this fantastic Bills offense, so he should be viewed as a low-end WR3 this week, but keep in mind that his upside isn’t as high as usual.
Trent Sherfield is a receiver who should never see your fantasy lineup, especially not this week. Sherfield hasn’t scored more than four points yet this year, and his career-best season is 4.9 PPG. If you’re in a position where you even have to think about starting Sherfield, you’re in big trouble.
Dawson Knox isn’t worth playing in any capacity due to how low-scoring this game should be. Knox is even more touchdown-dependent than most tight ends, but unfortunately, there’s not many points to go around this game. The only way you should consider playing Knox is if Dalton Kincaid misses this week. Even then, he’s a TE2, but only if you’re desperate.
We’ve seen Sam LaPorta take over the NFL as a rookie, but Dalton Kincaid has been relatively quiet. Granted, LaPorta looks like an extreme outlier, but it’s still disappointing to see Kincaid average 5.8 PPG this year. Kincaid is currently questionable with a concussion, but either way, you shouldn’t be starting him this week.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Mac Jones (Sit)
This Patriots offense is a complete mess, and Mac Jones is no exception. I’m not touching Jones with a 10-foot pole. In the past three games, Jones’s highest-scoring game has been 5.9 points. In the other two games, Jones had 0.7 and somehow -1.6 points. Enough said.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, RB2), Ezekiel Elliott (Sit)
Of the Patriots’ skill players, Rhamondre Stevenson is one of the only guys I’d still consider starting. Stevenson has been extremely disappointing this year, but his difficult schedule and injury may have amplified things. After seeing Stevenson score 18 points in week six, he’s been promoted back to an RB2.
Even though the Patriots should be trailing this game, Stevenson should still see work as a pass catcher. If Stevenson can expand on his six targets from last week, he has a chance to have another big game.
Ezekiel Elliott is, at best, a low-end flex play, but not this week. Elliott’s main value prop is his rushing ability, but the Patriots will need to throw the ball. You shouldn’t be starting Elliott most weeks, and that theme continues in week seven.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVante Parker (Sit), Kendrick Bourne (Flex), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, TE2), Mike Gesicki (Sit)
DeVante Parker hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since his 11.7-point game in Week One. Since then, Parker has hit a new low with 1.7 points in Week Six. In a horrendous offense, I don’t expect much to change with Parker. He should be left on the bench until proven otherwise.
Kendrick Bourne could be seeing your starting lineup as a flex this week. Although Bourne has really only had two good games, he seems like the number-one option for the Patriots right now. This isn’t saying much, but since the Patriots should be forced to throw the ball, I don’t mind having Bourne in my flex spot due to his upside.
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster is listed as questionable with a concussion, but don’t play him even if he comes back. For one, Smith-Schuster likely won’t be at 100%. Even if he is, 100% of 4.5 PPG isn’t great anyways. Smith-Schuster has had an extremely disappointing year, and right now, he isn’t fantasy-relevant at all.
Hunter Henry started the season strong with 16.6 and 17.2 points in his first two games. Unfortunately, once the Patriots offense fell off, Henry fell with them. Henry hasn’t scored above two points per game in the last two games. That said, the Patriots will throw the ball a ton this week, and the only receivers with upside in this offense are Henry and Bourne. While I don’t love Henry, the tight-end landscape is so gross that he’s a viable TE2.
Despite high expectations, Mike Gesicki hasn’t been fantasy-relevant all year, averaging 4.9 PPG. Even when the Patriots do get something going on offense, Henry is the one seeing the work, not Gesicki. Without an injury, there’s no reason to be starting Gesicki anytime in the near future