Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 22nd, 1:00 PM ET
Location: MetLife Stadium, Meadowlands, NJ
Betting Odds: WAS -2.5, 43 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Adam Sloate (@semtexmex93 on Twitter)
Washington Commanders
Quarterback
Sam Howell (Start, QB2)
Sam Howell has been a pleasant surprise this season with only one game outside of the top-14 QBs. Even with that massive letdown game against the Buffalo Bills, Howell is still sitting at QB12 on the season. Howell is currently tied for the eighth-highest completion percentage (68%). He’s also top ten in touchdowns (9), pass attempts (214) and money throws (15). This week Howell faces the hapless New York Giants who have the fourth-highest blitz percentage but have yielded minimal results. The Giants only have five sacks (fewest in the NFL), 21 QB hits (fewest in the NFL), and the ninth fewest interceptions (3). This game could be a great game for Howell, whose offensive line has struggled to keep defenses off him, allowing 34 sacks (most in the NFL). The Giants could also prove that even the worst pass rush could get to Howell. Either way, I’m starting Howell this week as a QB2. I would say QB1 but the Giants have been terrible against the run, so temper expectations.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr (Start, RB2), Antonio Gibson (Sit)
Brian Robinson Jr is the lead back in D.C. and has shown the talent and ability to take on 50% of the snaps. So far this year Robinson is RB15 and has been productive with 16 red zone touches and five touchdowns. While Robinson has done nothing extraordinary this year his opportunity share (69%) has reflected the team’s desire to get him the ball.
Antonio Gibson, on the other hand, hasn’t been the most viable guy week in and week out. Last week he needed a touchdown to get him to his second-highest fantasy output (8.6). Factor in that the Giants have been stingy with receiving yards to RBs, giving up the fewest in the NFL.
The Giants are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs (21.5) and this week should be no different, so start Robinson and sit Gibson.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin (Start, WR2), Jahan Dotson (Sit), Curtis Samuel (Start, Low-End Flex), Logan Thomas (Sit)
Terry McLaurin hasn’t been so scary as of late. This might be the game that gets him back on track, as he has a history of dominance over the Giants. In seven games versus the Giants, McLaurin has averaged 19 fantasy ppg which is almost a whole seven more points than his career average. The Giants are an excellent matchup for receivers this year allowing 23.9 fantasy ppg to opposing receivers. Look for McLaurin to be a good WR2 start this week.
Jahan Dotson is cringy right now and I know it’s not all his fault. Still his highest performance this year was WR28, with 12.6 points. In this last week, he only received one target and is looking like the low man on the totem pole. Until he shows up, he’s a sit and damn near a drop in most leagues.
Curtis Samuel has finished as the WR12, 14, and 24 in the last three weeks and Howell has shown a connection with him. During that three-week span, he’s garnered 19 targets, four red zone targets, and two touchdowns. This is an easy start for me this week, keep rolling with Samuel.
Logan Thomas had one big game and then immediately fell back down to earth. I’m not liking the matchup versus the Giants as they’ve allowed 5.7 ppg to opposing TEs. It’s just not the right move at TE for me, I’m going to sit him this week.
New York Giants
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor (Start, QB2)
It was nice to see Tyrod Taylor back in the NFL last week, but for fantasy’s sake, he’s still Tyrod Taylor. Last week was a reminder that while Taylor won’t screw up your day with negative points, he isn’t going to blow you away, either. He had 10.4 points against the Bills last week, but this week he’ll have an easier challenge. The Commanders have allowed the second most fantasy ppg to QBs (20.2). They have also allowed the most rushing yards to QBs (206) and the third most passing TDs (12). I know I kind of laid out my argument for never playing him, but oddly this could be the week to put him in. He finished QB22 with Week 6 Byes, and this week takes out even more QBs, so there’s a world where he can be a viable QB2. Not a likely world, but it’s certainly a possibility.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Start, RB1)
Saquon Barkley is back, and man did we miss him. Barkley came back and finished as RB16 on the week with 98 yards on 28 touches. Barkley should have a field day against an easier defense than the Bills, Washington has a middle-of-the-road rush defense that allows 14.4 ppg to the RB position. He’s back with some fresh legs and received 77 percent of the snaps right off the bat to prove it. There’s no way you’re not starting Saquon this week, and if you aren’t, you must be very lucky to have at least two running backs better than him.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Wan’Dale Robinson (Start, Low-End Flex), Darius Slayton (Sit), Darren Waller (Start, TE1)
Wan’Dale Robinson has been a breath of fresh air in this abysmal Giants offense. Since coming back in Week 3, Robinson has been targeted 6.5 times a game on average. Robinson also just had the best game of his career last week with eight receptions for 62 yards. This game was against his best competition at cornerback as well: Taron Johnson. Let’s start Robinson this week as a low-end flex.
Darius Slayton is the deep target whose ADOT is 13.5 yards, and he has 16 percent of the team’s target share. Despite that, he’s been effectively held to nothing this year, with his best performance being four catches for 69 yards last week. Slayton could start to get less attention on him with the emergence of Robinson but it still seems like he’ll need a Hail Mary to pay off. Let’s sit him this week.
Darren Waller has 18 targets over the last two weeks and has finished in the top 15 each week. The Commanders have given up the fourth-most TDs (3) to the tight end position. If there is ever an opportunity for a TE1 week for Waller, it will be against these Commanders at home. I’m starting Waller all day, seven days a week against the Giants.