Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 22nd, 4:25 PM ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Betting Odds: KC -5.5, 48 total via Odds Shark
Network: CBS
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
Justin Herbert is a must-start guy every single week, no matter what. Facing off against the Chiefs, this is the perfect scenario for Herbert. This game will be a shootout with an expected over/under of 48 points. The Chargers should trail for most of the game which bodes perfectly for Herbert because he will see a ton of passing volume to try and keep up with Mahomes. Right now, Herbert is the QB1 on a PPG basis. If you have Herbert in your lineup, expect a monster game this week.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Joshua Kelley (Sit)
After a quiet return against the Cowboys, you should expect a massive bounce back from Austin Ekeler this week. Having a running back on a team that’s projected to be trailing is typically a bad thing, but not with Ekeler. Ekeler always has provided plenty of fantasy value through the air, which is perfect this week. It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs have allowed 22.5 PPG to running backs this year. If you have Ekeler on your roster, he’s an automatic start every week.
You should never be playing Joshua Kelley, no matter the situation. After a 15.1-point Week One, Kelley has fallen off a cliff. He’s been ineffective with or without Ekeler, and since Week One, he hasn’t scored more than seven fantasy points. I wouldn’t recommend starting Kelley this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Quentin Johnston (Sit), Josh Palmer (Start, Flex), Gerald Everett (Start, TE2)
With an injury to Mike Williams early on, Keenan Allen has shot up in value. In fact, Allen has become one of the biggest values in fantasy drafts, considering he’s the WR2 on the year, averaging 24.9 PPG. In a game with a ton of passing volume, we all know most of that is going to Allen. Allen is an obvious start, and you can expect top-five WR numbers on the week.
After watching Quentin Johnston score 0 points against the Cowboys, I’m out on him this year. Based on his role in the offense and prospect profile, it’s clear he’s a raw receiver who isn’t ready to play in year one. There’s still a chance Johnston breaks out later in the year, but he should stay on your bench until then.
Josh Palmer is the true WR2 on this offense, which is viable this week. Palmer isn’t an extremely talented receiver, but he will have opportunities in a high-scoring game. This game heavily favors the Chargers pass catchers, so you should put as many fantasy-relevant players in your lineup as possible.
This off-season, Gerald Everett was viewed as a player with sneaky upside due to the fantastic Chargers offense. So far, Everett is only averaging 6.9 PPG, but in a gross, tight-end landscape, you should be fine starting him this week. The tight end position relies on touchdown upside, so it makes a ton of sense to target guys in high-scoring games.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Patrick Mahomes is an easy start, no matter what. The Chiefs are projected to have a big lead over the Chargers, but this game should be closer than most people realize. You’re excited to start Mahomes every week, especially when he’s playing in a game with an over/under of 48 points.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB2), Jerick McKinnon (Sit)
Isiah Pacheco has looked great this year, averaging 14.5 PPG and coming off a 15.8-point performance in week six. Assuming the Chiefs can get up early against the Chargers like, as the odds imply, Pacheco could have a big night.
Even if the Chiefs aren’t forced to run the ball as much, Pacheco can finish as an RB2 this week. After showing nothing in the receiving game last year, Pacheco just had a career-high with six targets last week. With Pacheco getting more involved as a pass catcher, this dramatically increases his floor and ceiling every single week.
Jerick McKinnon had a scorching hot end to the 2022 season, but so far, he’s been a non-factor this year. McKinnon is currently averaging 5.9 PPG, and Pacheco is taking work from him in the passing game. This is very worrisome, and you shouldn’t be playing McKinnon until he proves he can be fantasy-relevant once again.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Rashee Rice (Start, Flex), Kadarius Toney (Start, Flex), Skyy Moore (Sit, Flex), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
Of all the wide receivers on the Chiefs, the rookie Rashee Rice is the most fantasy-relevant. Rice hasn’t been a league winner by any means, but he’s putting up a solid 9.5 PPG. I don’t love Rice or any of these wide receivers, but in a shootout, he’s the best bet of these receivers to have a big fantasy game.
Kadarius Toney is an interesting case because the talent is there; he just can’t stay on the field. As we discussed with Rice, you need to get some of these Chiefs receivers in your lineup when it’s a high-scoring game. What better player to fill that description than an extremely high-upside player in Toney? Although Toney could be a complete dud this week, his upside case alone makes him a viable flex option.
Unfortunately, Skyy Moore is looking like a draft bust for the Chiefs. After seeing a lack of production over the last two years, it’s time to stop expecting anything from him in fantasy. Moore is averaging 5.6 PPG, and with the recent addition of Mecole Hardman, this won’t change anytime soon. He’s only playable in the most desperate of situations, and even then, the middling upside is not worth the incredibly low floor.
Travis Kelce is a fantasy cheat code at TE. If you have Kelce, you’re playing him, no questions asked. Kelce is the consensus TE1 every week, but he has the upside to break fantasy football when he’s in a high-scoring game. In what should be a surprise to no one, Kelce looks fantastic, averaging 17.7 PPG this year.