Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, October 19th, 2023, 8:15p PM ET
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Betting Odds: No +.5, 42.5 O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: Amazon Prime
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence (Sit, QB2)
So Trevor Lawrence currently isn’t living up to the “generational talent” label he was given when he was drafted. Through six games he has yet to be in the QB1 range. He has only been in QB2 range three times. He only has two multi-touchdown games this season. Week 7 comes around and he is facing the New Orleans Saints who are giving up the 7th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. It’s a tough matchup for an underperforming quarterback. You may have to start him due to bye weeks but if you can sit him this week. he is dealing with some knee soreness. I don’t want to start him at 100%. C.J. Beathard would be the starter if Lawrence can’t go.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne (Start, RB2), Tank Bigsby (Sit)
Travis Etienne has been playing like the running back that people expected him to be the past two weeks. It’s a welcomed reprieve from the ho-hum previous three weeks that fantasy managers have had to endure from him. While you are probably riding high on the former Clemson Tiger, you should probably pump the breaks. He has done well recently, but his up-and-down history makes me worry. Then you add in that the Saints are giving up the 2nd-fewest points to running backs. When you look back at Etienne’s weeks he hasn’t done well against good rush defenses. You are still starting him. He gets enough volume to keep him in your lineup, but tempering expectations is what matters. I think he finishes in the RB2 range this week.
The Tank Bigsby takeover seems to have been canceled like a bad sitcom. he has yet to play over 20% of the team’s snaps and outside of Week 1 hasn’t seen over five opportunities in a game. He is not only not startable, he is probably droppable at this point.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Calvin Ridley (Start, WR3), Christian Kirk (Start, WR2), Evan Engram (Start, TE2)
This whole section relies on Trevor Lawrence playing. If he does not I’m dropping each of these guys a tier.
Christian Kirk has dominated so far this season. He was barely involved in Week 1, and now has more targets the Calvin Ridley. Kirk is winning partly because he is lining up 7.% of the time in the slot which usually draws weaker coverage. That is the case this week. The slot corner for the Saints is Alontae Taylor who rates as the 98th-best cover corner out of 115. Kirk is also getting open quicker, seeing a lower yard per target but receptions matter. I think you can start him this week as a solid WR2.
Calvin Ridley might have a tough week. The Saints as a whole are giving up the 13th-fewest points to wide receivers. Ridley will probably see Marshon Lattimore in coverage. It’s a big matchup. While Lattimore only rates as the 59th-best cover corner he usually gets help from safety Tyrann Mathieu who rates as the 19th-best cover safety. He is still involved, but I think we have to expect him to be in the WR3 range this week. There isn’t another receiver I want to even think about from the Jags.
Evan Engram has been a solid tight end so far this season and is in the higher range of the glob of tight ends after the elites. The Saints are giving up the 6th-fewest points to tight end, so it could be a tough week for the former first-round pick. Mathieu could easily move down and take out Engram from the game. The Saints also have linebacker Demario Davis who is the 20th-best cover linebacker. He presents a tough matchup for Engram. You still want to start Engram, as trying to find someone else is a hot mess. Engram should be a solid TE2 this week.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Derrick Carr (Start, QB2)
The Saints thought bringing Derrick Carr to New Orleans this offseason would lead them back to the Drew Brees glory days or at least a division title and a playoff run. It has been less than stellar so far this season. Carr has been below average most of this season. He only has five touchdowns, yet he has three interceptions. He will benefit from facing the Jacksonville Jaguars who are giving up the 8th-most points to quarterbacks. It’s a match-up that should see Carr easily reach the QB2 range. I don’t see a great path for him to get into QB1 range. He lacks the efficiency and big game history. The Saints are finally all healthy at the skill position but they are still putting Taysom Hill in for a few snaps and running the ball well. With six teams on byes, you probably should start this week.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB2), Kendre Miller (Sit)
The three-game suspension did nothing to slow down Alvin Kamara as a top-five running back. Through his three games back he has been either in or just under the RB1 range. He has done this despite only scoring one touchdown so far. The injury to Jamaal Williams has helped. Kamara is getting a ton of volume. He is averaging 17 carries a game. He hasn’t been super efficient on those with a 3.83 yards per carry average. His fantasy production has been boosted by his pass-catching work. He is averaging seven targets a game. It’s a tougher matchup against the Jaguars who are giving up the 4th-fewest points to running backs. I still like Kamara due to his pass-catching abilities. He can create matchup problems for defenses. I’m rolling him as a RB2 this week.
Rookie Kendre Miller has been less productive so far in the season. He has yet to pass 40% of the team’s snaps and has only double-digit opportunities twice this year. He plays a very similar role to Kamara so unless there is an injury he will struggle to find a role outside of a breather back. Sit him this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR3), Michael Thomas (Start, WR2), Rashid Shaheed (Sit, FLEX), Juwan Johnson (OUT) Taysom Hill (Start, FLEX)
We might be seeing a receiver ascending to top-tier talent in Chris Olave. He is playing on 80% of the Saints snaps. He has seen double-digit targets in four of the six games. He has over 75 yards in those four games, and his yards per catch is a staggering 12.94. In order to cement himself in that upper echelon he will have to perform this week. While the Jaguars are giving up the 8th-most points to wide receivers the individual matchup for Olave is not great. When playing out wide he will probably see Darious Williams, who PFF.com rates as the 4th-highest cover corner. Olave is playing a decent number of snaps from the slot but will see Tre Herndon who ranks as the 33rd-best cover corner. I’m still willing to start Olave because he is only a play away from a 50+ yard touchdown. I’m lowering my expectations as I expect tough coverage keeping him in the WR3 range.
Michael Thomas looks like the true second option for the offense with a consistent floor. His targets have been never below six, and never above nine. He has been over 50 yards in all but one game. He looks healthy and is getting involved. We know the Jaguars give up points to wide receivers and this is the spot I see it coming from. Thomas will see coverage from Montaric Brown who rates at 55.4 on PFF.com and doesn’t have enough snaps to rank in the 133 corners. It’s a great matchup for MT as he looks to continue his solid year. Start him as a solid WR2 this week.
Rashid Shaheed faces the same issue that Olave faces. He is splitting his time between out wide and the slot which comes with tough coverage this week. You can start him if you are desperate but he won’t be more than a flex play unless he gets one of his long touchdowns. He is the boom or bust player that can win you a week or lose it for you.
Juwan Johnson is probably out again missing more practice this week. This continues to open the door for Taysom Hill. He seems to be keeping Foster Moreau at bay. Hill saw eight targets this past week. It pains me to say this but you can start Hill as a solid TE2 or flex play this week. He is playing on a good number of snaps. The Jags are giving up the 5th-most points to tight ends. Hill still gets a few carries each game and has the potential to throw especially in the red zone. It will be interesting to see how this progresses once Johnson comes back and Moreau gets healthier.