Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 22nd, 2023, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Betting Odds: TB -1.5, 41.5 O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: Fox
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterbacks
Desmond Ridder (Sit, QB2)
Is Desmond Ridder a good NFL quarterback? Six weeks in and it doesn’t look like it. Is he a startable or valuable fantasy quarterback? Well, that has been less than consistent so far this season. He has three games where he failed to reach double-digit points. He has two games where he was a solid QB1. In his other game, Week 6 he was a high-end QB2. So what does Week 7 have in store for Ridder? First off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are giving up the 11th fewest points to quarterbacks. The Falcons have seemed to figure out how to involve their top-end talent in Drake London and Kyle Pitts and just added Van Jefferson to the mix. So what should you as a fantasy manager do with Ridder? I’m sitting him this week. Yes, there are six teams on bye but out of them only half have fantasy starts (Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, and C.J. Stroud) and you probably have other options. You didn’t draft Ridder to be your starter so you should have a better option
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB2), Tyler Allgeier (Sit)
Another frustrating week for the Atlanta Falcons running backs. It’s another week where rookie Bijan Robinson out-snapped Tyler Allgeier by a wide margin, yet their carry counts were nearly identical. It’s a trend that has frustrated fantasy managers for six weeks and probably isn’t going away. The Falcons will continue to work the two equally in the run game. There has been a bump for Bijan in the passing game, though. He has seen 32 targets compared to Allgeier’s 10. This week they have a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are giving up the 8th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Considering they both get similar volume it makes it murky. I’m willing to start Bijan since he is averaging 5.01 yards per carry compared to his teammates’ 3.23. I like that he can bolster his numbers with passing work but still believe that Bijan is just a low-end RB2 this week. Allgeier is a sit, though he could make it into the Flex range given his volume.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, WR3), Van Jefferson (Sit, FLEX),Mack Hollins (Sit, Flex) Kyle Pitts (Sit, TE2) Jonnu Smith (Start, TE2)
The Atlanta Falcons might have the wonkiest pass-catching group in all of the NFL. It starts at the top with Drake London. After some frustration, London seems to be hitting his stride in this offense. He has seen on average eight targets a game and is averaging 65.8 yards per game. Those numbers are boosted by the past two weeks where he was hyper-targeted and very efficient. He will continue to be that this week. The Bucs are giving up the 8th most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. I do struggle to see a massive upside for London due to coverage. He will draw top coverage from Carlton Davis III who rates as the 39th best cover corner by PFF.com. The lack of a solid second weapon means they can shade safety help over to that side and shut down London. With that said, you can still start him as a solid WR3.
After London is where it gets certifiably weird. Newly acquired Van Jefferson needs to step up. He only played on 27% of the team’s Week 6 snaps but he had only been with the team for a few days. Given a full week of practice, he should be out there more. He will have to beat out Mack Hollins for targets but that doesn’t look to be a big issue. He should see a favorable matchup against Jamel Dean who ranks as the 87th best corner. I’m not trusting either of Jefferson or Hollins right now until we see which one will actually be the true number two. For reference, they both trailed slot receiver KhaDarel Hodges in snaps and routes run in Week 6. Sit all three (Jefferson, Hollins, Hodges) this week.
Kyle Pitts finally reached the end zone and provided a much-needed boost to fantasy managers’ lineups. Does that continue this week or does it go back to being Jonnu Smith‘s role? What if I told you it was neither this week? The Buccaneers are giving up the 5th fewest points to tight ends. Both are playing on just over 50% of the team’s total snaps which isn’t great for either. Given the tough matchup, I don’t expect either to have a great game. Most likely, they both probably get into the TE2 range, which isn’t what anyone wants. I would start Jonnu over Pitts based on his consistency this year. Ideally, I want to find a better option this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (Start, QB2)
I’m big enough to admit when I’m wrong. I’ve been wrong about Baker Mayfield. I thought he would be benched by now after weeks of poor play. The opposite has been true. In his first four games, Baker has been in the QB1 range twice and the other two were still not horrible. Coming off the bye week for the Week 6 matchup against the Detroit Lions I expected more from him but he had his worst game of the year failing to reach double-digit fantasy points. Now heading into Week 7 he has to face the Atlanta Falcons who are middle of the road in terms of points surrendered to quarterbacks. It’s a defense that is stronger against the run so the former first overall pick has a good matchup and should be a decent start for you. He does have a finger issue, but it’s on his non-throwing hand and that shouldn’t keep him out of the QB2 range.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Start, Flex)
I’ve also been wrong about Rachaad White. I thought the volume he was seeing would be enough to keep him fantasy relevant. The fact that they don’t have anyone besides him has remained the truth. Sean Tucker and Ke’Shawn Vaughn have been nonfactors. The issue this week is the stout Falcons’ run defense. They are rated as the 4th best in that department by PFF.com. I still think he gets enough volume to put him in the flex range but I don’t see a ton of upside for him. With so many injuries at the running back position lately White might seem like an enticing option in the trade market but you should avoid him if you can.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR3), Trey Palmer (Sit) Cade Otton (Start, TE1),
One thing that isn’t talked about enough is how good the Tampa receiving duo is. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should be talked about in the same breath as the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks pairs. Mike Evans is well on his way to his tenth 1000-yard receiving year. He has been the main guy for Baker so far this season. He has seen double-digit targets in three of their five games. He faces possibly tough coverage this week. Most likely he will draw A.J. Terrell. While Terrell only rates as the 62nd-best cover corner he has a history of being a shutdown guy. I like Evans to still have a good game but probably won’t be the monster we are used to seeing from the veteran. We just saw Terry McLaurin catch four of his six targets for 63 yards against Terrell. I believe Evans will be a solid WR2 this week.
Chris Godwin might be the guy who actually gets the better coverage. Former Lion Jeff Okudah is the corner on the other side of the field and he rates better than Terrell as the 44th-best cover corner. Godwin’s target share has slightly increased in the past two weeks and his connection with Mayfield continues to grow. I don’t love the matchup. The Falcons as a whole are giving up the 8th fewest points to wide receivers and a large part of that is due to Okudah. It’s why the Falcons traded for him in the offseason. You can still play Godwin but I don’t expect him to get past the WR3 range.
Trey Palmer is the new slot receiver for the Bucs and despite getting seven targets last week he only caught two of them for 47 yards. He might be a name you are considering but you shouldn’t be starting him. The slot corner for the Falcons is Dee Alford who rates as the 9th best cover corner. Don’t get cute with Palmer in your lineup this week
Tight end Cade Otton has a noticeable pattern of bad games and good games. He just came off a bad game where he only posted two fantasy points. Does that make him due for a good game? Well, the Falcons are giving up the 4th most points to tight ends. I love this week for Otton. Outside of this past week where Logan Thomas had a bad week we have seen some of the best tight-end production days come against the Falcons. If Godwin gets shut down Otton will become a target monster. I feel confident saying you can start him as a TE1 this week.