Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 15th, at 1:00 PM EST
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Odds: NO -1.5 O/U 42.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (Start, QB1)
At the start of the season, I really thought Derek Carr was going to have one of those “see, it wasn’t me, it was THEM!” seasons. The parts all seemed to be there: a good core of receivers, a strong running attack to create more opportunities for the passing game, etc…but so far, he’s mostly just been Derek Carr. That’s not even an insult, it just is what it is. It’s like getting less than you hoped for from another Marvel television series or a trip to Taco Bell: you knew what you were doing, what you were getting into, but just this one time couldn’t it be great?
The Saints are 3-2 under Carr (3-1 if you aren’t counting the Green Bay game against him, and you shouldn’t, because Rashaan Gary dribbled him off the ground like a Globetrotter). The Texans are coming into this game giving up 338.8 yards per game, 20 points a game, and let a staggering 47.1% of third down attempts against them just come on through with gusto. This is a good week for Derek to start for your fantasy team, but know he’s going to be grinding the whole time to get you those low-end numbers you deserve after muddling through a middling Marvel marathon while munching on a Mexican pizza.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1) Kendre Miller (Sit)
We have a limited data set since his first three weeks were lost to a suspension, but after two weeks, Alvin Kamara has come out of the corner swinging wildly and looking for knockouts. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kamara jumped out with 24 combined touches (11 carries and 13 receptions on 14 carries) for 86 yards, while last week brought a heavier run use (22 carries on 25 total touches) for 97 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. In short, Kamara has looked fresh and every bit the primary weapon the New Orleans Saints have enjoyed deploying in recent seasons. If you drafted him and held strong through that long and desolate first part of the season, congratulations! You’ve earned your just rewards.
With Kamara’s return, we naturally saw a drop-off in rookie Kendre Miller‘s usage. Last week, however, he enjoyed a heck of a resurgence, turning 16 combined touches into 90 yards (or is it just a ‘surgance’ since he didn’t really do anything in his brief flirtation with being the main guy before Alvin’s return? Is that even a word? I’m declaring it valid for purposes of this entry). But, hold up: a full third of those yards came on one 33-yard reception and this was all accomplished during a blowout win for the Saints. In what should be a moderately more challenging game for New Orleans, I wouldn’t expect Miller to be a consistent feature for the immediate future.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR3), Michael Thomas (Start, WR3), Rashid Shaheed (Sit), Juwan JohnsonTaysom Hill/Foster Moreau/Jimmy Graham (Sit)
While I appreciate his athletics and overall general output in his career to date, I have to note that I also have not lost my eyesight nor my capacity for a general interpretation of usage data and thus cannot fail to note that Chris Olave has been a fantasy toilet-flush for two straight weeks. His one-catch-for-four-yards abomination against the Buccaneers was followed up by a two-for-twelve cashing-a-check performance against the Patriots. Back-to-back duds of this magnitude shake fantasy managers to their cores and create a thousand “Am I crazy for thinking I should drop Olave for Emari Demarcado??!!??” posts on Reddit and Twitter/X. Side effects also include sell-low trades driven by desperation. That said, Olave isn’t at his healthiest, and the Saints jumped all over a depleted Patriots defense early, limiting the need to air it out. The Texans rank 18th against the pass, so while Olave should enjoy a bounce-back week, I can’t push him where he arguably SHOULD be consistently producing (in the WR2 range). That’s due in part to slightly unexpected consistency from Michael Thomas.
Thomas has put in a minimum of four catches for no less than 50 yards each week this year and has consistently garnered a nearly equal target share with Olave (39 to Olave’s 43). This provides great weekly options for Carr but devalues both on a week-to-week basis. Until one of the two consistently steps away from the other in terms of yardage and/or red zone visits, it’s hard to push them higher than WR3 thresholds. Olave is the better athlete, but he has been disappointing to date.
After an early season peek at what might be coming down the line, Rashid Shaheed has fallen off the fantasy radar: his top showing in the past three weeks was a three reception/seven target effort against Tampa Bay that generated all of 33 yards. I suspect we’ll have to wait a while longer to figure out Shaheed’s true future value. None of the Saints tight ends have mustered more than one reception since the Green Bay game, when the still-questionable injury-wise, and fantasy-wise, Juwan Johnson had two. This position doesn’t have any value in this offense currently, and too many mouths fighting for the smallest of bites. Avoid them all.
Houston Texans
Quarterbacks
C. J. Stroud (Start, QB2)
A meteoric first month to C. J. Stroud‘s career saw him far exceed initial rookie expectations, but the Atlanta Falcons slowed the C. J. hype a little, though his fantasy managers have little to be concerned about ROS. This Saints matchup, however, will likely give Stroud back-to-back weeks of ‘learning and growth’, as they are sitting at fifth in overall yards given up this year (a total of 915) and fourth in yards per attempt. A little strife last week against the Falcons led to game adjustments that favored a shorter focus for Stroud, and New Orleans will likely provide more of the same. Even with the rougher go last week, C. J. still managed a decent 249 yards with a score, and I would look for a similar performance this week. He has shown he’s not married to just Nico Collins or Tank Dell, and has the capability of re-focusing on open opportunities over more reliable and comfortable targets. There are enough good signs here to point to a rookie campaign that continues to offer success. This week won’t offer the return to QB1 numbers we saw during the first month. However, Stroud leads the 3rd best passing offense averaging 274.8 yards per game so far, so I wouldn’t be shocked if it turns out I’m underselling him for this outing.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce (Start, Flex), Devin Singletary (Sit)
The great news for Dameon Pierce owners is he is DOMINATING the share carry to this point in the year, outpacing backfield compatriot Devin Singletary by nearly a four-to-one usage (84 carries to 27 for Singletary). The negative part of this equation is that he has done little with that advantage over five games but generated tremendous feelings of remorse and sadness in those of us who still want to believe there’s got to be a breakthrough coming. It may be time to embrace the feeling that ‘it’s not coming’.
Pierce is floundering with a 2.9 yards-per-carry, generating a paltry 247 yards total, albeit behind a line that is generally not doing him many favors either. This Saints DL is only giving up 1.19 yards before contact, and from the gameplay I’ve been soaking in tears watching, Dameon isn’t going much farther than that, so far mustering an anemic 1.1 yards after contact, and has a total of seven broken tackles. Regardless of this abysmal second-year slump (let’s hope it’s not permanent), the Texans haven’t shown any indication of evening out the mix with Singletary. He received zero carries and was targeted once against Atlanta. With the volume alone, Pierce remains a Flex play, though not a spectacular or exciting one until, and more critically ‘if‘ the Texans figure out how to block for him, and how to fix whatever else is lagging in the 2023 edition of Pierce. Singletary isn’t worth consideration or even a roster spot at this point.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Nico Collins (Start, WR3), Tank Dell (Start, Flex) *, Robert Woods (Start, Flex), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE2)
All three of the primary Texans WRs face tough tasks against the Saints secondary this week – current Pro Football Focus matchups project only Nico Collins with the slightest matchup advantage going into this week at 50.9, and both Tank Dell and Robert Woods projecting below 30% in the same metrics. However, what we’ve seen from Nico and C. J. Stroud this year leads me to think of last week’s low output as an exception rather than the beginning of a downward trend. I look for Nico to have a more productive week slightly over Tank, and a good portion of that is Tank’s current status as working through the concussion clearance steps. Even if he clears before Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees a little less action.
Both are facing a week that will require some grit, as the Saints’ secondary (and overall defense) is among the league’s better-performing units to date. With that noted I expect an attempted repeat of last week’s usage of Dalton Schultz, as well as continued short-field targets for Woods. The latter drew nine targets in last week’s grappling match with New Orleans, though he was unable to reel in three of them. I don’t have any of these core four options pushed up very high, primarily because this Texans scheme has proven to spread around the targets pretty consistently. Also, I suspect Bobby Slowik will implement a similar game plan to the one he employed against the Falcons, taking opportunities where they arise and pivoting when they don’t. That might sound trite, but I’ve watched a lot of coordinators this year refuse to adapt to the game in front of them. Slowik does not seem to share this common fatal flaw, which is great for the Texans’ overall efficiency and future, but also one destined to create a heretofore unreachable high point of dental office visits for Texans’ fantasy receiver owners due to weekly teeth-grinding. Say what you want about, let’s say, DeAndre Hopkins and the Titans, at least you know he’s getting all the targets.
*currently in concussion protocol