Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, October 16th, 8:15pm PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood California
Betting Odds: LAC +3, 52 O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: ABC, ESPN
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Start, QB2)
There is no denying the fact that Dak Prescott had a stinker this past week, but let’s not overreact to one bad game. First off, it was against one of the best defenses in a game where passing was the only option. The fact it was prime time makes it seem worse. This week though, he’ll be facing a much lighter defense, as the Chargers are giving up 4th most points to quarterbacks, so this could be a get right game for Prescott and the Cowboys offense. While he has never been a big stat stuffer type of guy, he should easily get into QB2 range. Bye weeks aren’t too bad this week but I’m still willing to roll with Prescott, though you might have a better option.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard (Start, Flex), Rico Dowdle (Sit), Deuce Vaughn (Sit)
When the Dallas Cowboys let Ezekiel Elliot go this off-season they were handing the reigns to the run game, and really the offense, to Tony Pollard. Since then it has been Tony’s world and we are all just living in it. Pollard has seen the majority of the carries with 81 total on the season, which is 9th-most in the NFL, and four times more than anyone else on the Cowboys. Despite the volume, it’s been an up-and-down year for him fantasy-wise. He started the season as a top 5 running back in Week 1, but then has gone down each week. The hope is last week he bottomed out at only 8.4 fantasy points. He faces the Chargers who are giving up the 9th most points to running backs and rank as the 5th worst run defense by PFF.com. With a better game script, the volume should bounce back from the eight carries he had last week. What you do have to love about Pollard is his usage in the passing game. His 22 targets so far on the season rank 8th among all running backs. Pollard should be a solid RB2 and you won’t have to move him much this season.
While both Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn are interesting players to keep an eye on, neither has seen enough playing time to be fantasy-relevant. They have only once each broken the 25% snap share number and neither has any significant pass-catching work. If Pollard were to go down, they have some juice behind a solid offensive line and a team that seems to run a one-back system. Until that happens you should sit them.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR2), Michael Gallup (Start, Flex), Brandin Cooks (Sit), Jake Ferguson (Sit)
Let’s just put this to bed. CeeDee Lamb is still a top-five wide receiver. The issue we are seeing is sub-optimal quarterback play the past few weeks and as the top receiver Lamb is getting top coverage. The Cowboys have moved to a lot of three-wide sets which puts Lamb in the slot, an area he has succeeded in the past, but it hasn’t been working this year in the new Mike McCarthy-led offense. Playing 70% of your time in the slot allows the team to read what is happening. Lamb is still leading the team in targets and should still see plenty this week. Even though the Chargers are giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers I don’t love this week for Lamb. Coming off the bye week the Chargers have had two weeks to prepare for the Cowboys and have seen how teams like the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots have shut down Lamb. The normal slot cover man for the Chargers is Ja’Sir Taylor who rates as the 90th best corner, per Pro Football Focus. There have been times when they have moved Asante Samuel Jr into slot coverage so that could hinder Lamb. With all that said, you are still starting him. He is good enough to beat coverage when the offense is clicking. The question will be if they can click this week. Start Lamb as a solid WR2 with a ton of upside.
Michael Gallup will have to make his presence felt in order to get Samuel to play on the outside and not in the slot across from Lamb. If that is the case, it could be a bad week for Gallup. I love seeing Gallup get a healthy snap share going over 65% in four out of the five games this season. He has also seen good target numbers in the past few weeks as top coverage looks to take away Lamb. The issue with Gallup is the lack of real production on those targets. He’s a solid flex this week, with the chance of Samuel being on Lamb more than we expect.
Brandin Cooks has been the odd man out so far in this new “Texas Coast” offense that the Cowboys are running. He only has over five targets once this year. He should benefit from some weak coverage as the other outside corner for the Chargers is Michael Davis who rates as the 104th best coverage corner. Can the perennial 1000-yard receiver get back on that pace in this game? I’m not banking on it. He seems like an afterthought for Prescott right now and until we see it, I’m not starting him.
Jake Ferguson has seen a decent amount of targets but has been in the middle of the TE2 range most weeks. Given that he could see known tight-end killer Derwin James, we are not really excited to start him. Even if James can’t go due to the hamstring issue, the Chargers have 3 other good cover safeties who can shut down tight ends. They are used to dealing with Travis Kelce twice a year, so Jake Ferguson might seem like a cakewalk comparatively. Sit him this week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
Who doesn’t love a good narrative? We get that this week in a revenge game for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, getting to coach and scheme against his old team. A team that thought his offense was too fast and not giving their defense enough time to rest, which supposedly led to his departure from Dallas. He has implemented that offense for the Chargers and Justin Herbert has benefited. Herbert is 6th in yards per game and is averaging 36 passing attempts per game. Given that the Chargers have had two weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, Moore wants to show that his offense is superior, so I love this week for Herbert. Yes, the Cowboys are giving up the 5th fewest points to quarterbacks, but that’s a holdover from some weak early-season matchups. Last week, Brock Purdy put up stellar numbers (252 passing yards, 4 TDs, good for the 7th best QB performance of the week) as he carved up the Dallas secondary. Start Herbert as a QB1 with confidence.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Joshua Kelley (Sit)
Chargers and fantasy managers can finally let out the collective breath they have been holding as it looks like Austin Ekeler will finally play in Week 6. After missing the past 3 games, the bye week has allowed Ekeler to get healthy and resume his RB1 role. It couldn’t come quickly enough as Joshua Kelley has looked pedestrian even with a ton of volume. The Cowboys are middle of the road in terms of surrendering points to the running back position so it’s a solid matchup. Given the extra time coming off the bye I’m sliding Ekeler right back into his RB1 role and putting Kelley squarely on my bench if not the waiver wire.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR2), Quentin Johnston (Sit), Josh Palmer (Sit, Flex), Gerald Everett (Start, TE2)
It will be interesting to see what the Chargers passing game looks like with an extra week to game plan with no Mike Williams. It’s safe to assume that veteran Keenan Allen will still be the main guy. Allen is top 10 in the league in targets despite not playing in Week 5 as the Chargers had their bye week. He has been and will continue to be the first read for Herbert on most passing plays. With that said, it’s not a great matchup for Allen. When playing outside he will probably see PFF’s second-highest-rated cover corner in DaRon Bland. You might think that Allen lining up 64% of the time in the slot will help him, which it does, but he will still see Jourdan Lewis who rates as the 65th-best corner. Not to mention that Bland has spent some time in the slot. Even if they move Allen to the other side of the field in motion he will be facing fellow veteran Stephon Gilmore who rates as the 35th best cover corner. Tough matchups across the board. I still like the volume but I’m lowering my expectation on Allen to a WR2.
We saw last year and in Week 4 that Josh Palmer is the next man up in Williams’s absence. He played on 86% of the snaps compared to rookie Quentin Johnston‘s 51%. I think there’s a chance that that split comes closer to 50/50 this week. Johnston was drafted to be the future, and while Palmer has performed well, I think the extra week of practice and game plan has allowed the Chargers to implement plays for Johnston. Unfortunately, we have already talked about how stout the coverage is for wide receivers across the board so I’m not loving either of these two this week. If I’m desperate I would throw Palmer in as a flex but with only two teams on byes you should be able to find better options.
Gerald Everett is an interesting option this week. With the receivers possibly getting shut down, it could open up room and targets for the tight end. The Cowboys are giving up the 9th most points to tight ends so the matchup is good. Everett is third on the team in total targets behind Allen and Williams and has run a healthy 82 routes on the season. He is getting moved around enough that he only spends about 56% of his time in line so his ability to create mismatches in coverage is appealing. The issue is the Cowboys have three really good coverage guys for linebackers. Safeties Juanyeh Thomas and Malik Hooker, and linebacker Markquese Bell all rate well according to PFF.com. I’m confident that Everett should see enough volume to get into the TE2 range this week.