Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 15th, 4:05 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise Nevada
Betting Odds: LV -1.5, 42.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: CBS
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
New England Patriots
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones (Sit)
If you plan on starting any Patriots this week, I’m sorry to hear your season hasn’t gone as planned. The performance of Mac Jones and the Patriots this season has been straight-up depressing (at least for Patriots fans). The Patriots are ranked bottom seven in passing offense, pass blocking, and pass routes according to PFF. Their receivers have the lowest average yards of separation in the league, and their offensive line has the lowest pass-blocking win rate in the league. They are also the lowest-scoring offense in the league, and Mac Jones has somehow managed to score a stunning -0.9 fantasy points over the last two weeks. In that same stretch, he has turned over the ball six times and has failed to find the end zone even once. There are few quarterbacks that need to remain out of the QB2 conversation regardless of matchup, but Jones is one of them. This offense is too horrendous to warrant even considering starting its quarterback.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, Flex), Ezekiel Elliott (Sit)
The player who has been most negatively impacted by the ineptitude of New England’s offense is probably Rhamondre Stevenson who is averaging just 38 rushing yards per game and has only one touchdown. The Raiders have a top-ten-ranked run defense by PFF, so things don’t appear to be getting any easier for the third-year running back. There are two things working in his favor though. The first is that he has continued to out-snap and out-touch Ezekiel Elliott, especially early in games. The second is that this game *should* be more competitive than the last two New England has played which opens the door for Stevenson to be more involved throughout. If he can get enough opportunities, his talent should shine through. Overall, the offense as a whole can’t be trusted enough to make Stevenson an RB1 or RB2, but he can be considered a risky flex play.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVante Parker (Sit), Kendrick Bourne (Sit), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, TE2), Mike Gesicki (Sit)
See the Quarterback section above to understand why none of these receivers should be started. Additionally, a Patriots receiver has only scored double-digit fantasy points twice this season in PPR formats. The last time it happened was DeVante Parker in Week 2 when he caught six passes for 57 yards to barely hit that milestone. Superstar free agent signing Juju-Smith Schuster has the highest percentage of catchable targets at just 71%. That’s been good enough to lead him to an astounding 86 receiving yards through five games played. Meanwhile, Kendrick Bourne leads the team in receiving yards while averaging an incredible 44 yards per game. All sarcasm aside, this receiving corps is terrible, and the Raiders have allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to the position this season. There is no reason to start any of them.
Hunter Henry was held without a catch last week, but he has played over 83% of offensive snaps and has been the preferred red zone target of Mac Jones. He also has the eighth-best matchup advantage of all tight ends this week according to PFF. At a position with a ton of disparity and the need for boom potential, Henry is a decent TE2 candidate with touchdown upside. Mike Gesicki has also been involved, but he is playing just 50% of snaps and doesn’t get the usage to justify fantasy consideration in such a putrid offense.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo (Sit)
In his first year reunited with Josh McDaniels, Jimmy Garoppolo has been a turnover machine. He has tossed up seven interceptions in just four games. This has partially been the reason why he hasn’t been able to eclipse 18 fantasy points yet this year in most scoring formats. The Patriots’ defense has allowed the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks this season and has somehow only let a QB throw multiple touchdown passes on them once this year. Even with some injuries in the secondary, Garoppolo doesn’t have the talent or history on his side to overcome this matchup. He should remain outside of your lineup.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB1)
The veteran running back has finally hit his groove in the past couple of weeks. Josh Jacobs seems to have returned to his high-volume workhorse role in both the run and passing games. Over the last three weeks, he is averaging 18 carries and over five receptions per game. He also has been able to find the end zone each of the last two weeks. It hasn’t always been pretty playing behind the Raiders’ bottom-three-ranked offensive line (per PFF), but Jacobs has had sufficient enough volume to be a great starting option even if he is averaging under three yards per carry on the season. Don’t expect too much to change against New England who has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the running back position this year and will likely find it difficult, if not impossible, to pull away in this one and force the Raiders to air it out. Jacobs is a volume-based mid to low-end RB1. Ameer Abdullah is playing under 20% of offensive snaps and doesn’t have a large enough role to be fantasy-relevant.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Jakobi Meyers (Start, WR3), Hunter Renfrow (Sit), Austin Hooper (Sit), Michael Mayer (Sit)
Although I am not as comfortable starting Garoppolo, I absolutely love Davante Adams this week. He obviously is a stud who has 442 receiving yards and three touchdowns on the season, but he also has a great matchup. The Patriots are without three of their top four cornerbacks in Christian Gonzalez, Jack Jones, and Marcus Jones. Even their top remaining corner, Jonathan Jones, is only PFF’s 94th-ranked cover corner. Meanwhile, Myles Bryant and the recently reacquired J.C. Jackson have struggled mightily in coverage. An elite weapon like Adams should have a field day. It’s no wonder PFF has his matchup advantage ranked as the second-highest of all wide receivers in Week 6. He is an incredible start.
Jakobi Meyers is the receiver that the Patriots probably should have paid instead of Juju Smith-Schuster. Meyers has been surprisingly productive despite being the second receiving option on a Jimmy Garoppolo-led team. He has had at least seven receptions in three of the four games he’s played in and has even become a touchdown producer (three on the year) which he never was in New England. He also benefits from a phenomenal matchup in this revenge game, but it is more likely that the offense will run through Adams and Jacobs which reduces Meyers to a high-end WR3. As for Hunter Renfrow, he was once a great fantasy asset but is now playing under 50% of offensive snaps and hasn’t caught more than two passes in any game all year. There is no reason to start him.
Finally, let’s address the tight ends. Both Austin Hooper and rookie Michael Mayer have played over 50% of offensive snaps this season. However, that hasn’t translated to production as neither has even 70 yards on the year yet. The Patriots have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season and shouldn’t have a problem limiting the Las Vegas duo. Steer clear.