Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, October 12th, 2023, 8:15 PM ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Betting Odds: KC -9.5, 51 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Network: Amazon Prime
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Start QB2),
Despite the 1-4 record for the Denver Broncos, Russell Wilson has played quite well. He has finished in the QB1 range three times this year. He has multiple touchdowns in four out of five games and has thrown only two interceptions on the year. Part of what is helping him is that his defense isn’t stopping anyone so the Broncos have to pass to try to get back into games. I expect the same sort of game script this week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Even though the Chiefs are giving up the 10th fewest points to quarterbacks I think the volume will be there for Russ to get solidly into QB2 range.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Sit, FLEX), Jaleel McLaughlin (Sit, FLEX) Samaje Perine (Start, FLEX)
This is a situation worth monitoring. Javonte Williams is the best running back on the roster but injuries have once again cost him a game and a practice or two this week. However, he was a full participant on Wednesday and has been removed from the injury report. This hurts Samaje Perine, who would’ve been the main guy otherwise, even though rookie and waiver darling Jaleel McLaughlin earned a role after a great Week 5 effort. Unfortunately, the Chiefs are giving up the 7th fewest points to running backs, and the projected game script lends itself toward the Broncos playing catch-up. Therefore, if I’m interested in anyone from this crew, it’s the pass-catching back, and so far this season that role belongs to Perine.
Perine had 13 targets to Williams’s 16 through the first four games, and Perine has been more consistent with his pass-catching opportunities. Is there a chance that McLaughlin gets more run after looking so good? Maybe, but I’m not loving the matchup. I’m willing to start Perine as a flex play in hopes that he still holds that pass-catching work. Williams could be a serviceable flex if he gets enough carries early in the game before it gets out of hand. If Williams can’t go for some reason, I would slide the rookie McLaughlin into my flex spot. If Williams is playing, I’m sitting McLaughlin.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy (Start, FLEX), Cortland Sutton (Start, FLEX), Marvin Mims (Sit) Adam Trautman (Sit)
The Broncos have a very underrated group of wide receivers who’ve had trouble staying healthy the past few years. Jerry Jeudy was the preseason favorite to emerge as the alpha in this passing attack, but hasn’t lived up the the hype. I expect that trend to continue this week against the Chiefs and cornerback Trent McDuffie, who is graded as the 13th-best cover corner by PFF.com. He plays outside on two-receiver sets and in the slot on three-wide sets, which is where Jeudy lines up. It adds up to a down week for Jeudy, who has seen about six targets a game rendering him a flex play this week.
Courtland Sutton has been the chief red zone producer with three on the season including two in the past three games. The Chiefs are giving up the 10th fewest points to the wide receiver position so I don’t love the matchup for Sutton this week. He will see L’Jarius Sneed in coverage, who rates as the 79th-best corner out of 113. That sounds great on the surface, but I expect them to lean safety help his way with Justin Reid, who rates as the 29th-best coverage safety. Nevertheless, given Sutton’s size and recent connection with Wilson, he’ll be in the WR3 range this week.
Rookie Marvin Mims has been a letdown so far this season in terms of usage. He has yet to surpass a 35% snap share and only once had more than two targets. On top of his limited snaps, he should draw Joshua Williams who rates as the 38th best corner. Not the best matchup to exploit while playing limited snaps. Sit him this week.
When looking for a fantasy-relevant tight end we search for someone who’s at least the 3rd option on their team in terms of targets. Unfortunately, Adam Trautman is not that. He is playing a good number of the Broncos snaps and running a decent number of routes but just isn’t involved. He had three games where he scored zero fantasy points sandwiched between two good performances. It’s tough to count on that kind of inconsistent production. The Chiefs are middle of the road in fantasy points surrendered to tight ends and we’ve already talked about how good Joshua Williams is in coverage. They also have linebacker Nick Bolton who rates at 73.9 in coverage. Sit Trautma since the middle of the field is locked down by Kansas City, and Wilson doesn’t often look for his tight end.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Do you always start Patrick Mahomes? Yes, you do. Do you always start the quarterback playing the Denver Broncos? Yes, you do. Are you excited when both line up in the same week? Yes, you are! The Broncos are giving up the most points to quarterbacks. Easy one here: start Mahomes, who has an even better chance than usual to be the overall top scorer on the week.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB1), Jerick McKinnon (Sit)
Not only are the Broncos are giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, they’re also the league’s most generous team to running backs. This bodes well for sophomore Isiah Pacheco. With a nod to the old-school video game classic NBA Jam, Pacheco is On Fire! He has scored in three straight games while averaging 14 carries per game and yielding 4.58 yards per tote. He’s a smash start this week. On top of the great matchup and volume, the Chiefs should be able to get a solid lead and focus on running the ball later in the game. Start Pacheco as a RB1.
As Pacheco has taken over the lead role, Jerick McKinnon‘s value has dropped like a stone. He hasn’t played over 35% of snaps in any game this season and only averages 3.8 total opportunities a game. His pass-catching abilities are still there but the Chiefs haven’t been in games where they need it, and Pacheco has shown a lot of improvement there. Surprisingly, even Clyde Edwards-Helaire has found a small role in this offense. If the Chiefs do get a commanding lead we could see more of C.E.H. I don’t think he or McKinnon are worth starting right now, however.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Rashee Rice (Start, WR3) Kadarius Toney (Sit, Flex), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit, Flex), Skyy Moore (Sit, Flex), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
The wide receivers for the Chiefs have been a mixed bag ever since Tyreek Hill left, but we might finally be getting some clarity. We have to throw out snap shares as a metric: outside of Marquise Valdes-Scantling, the King of Empty Routes, no Kansas City wide receiver is playing more than 60% of the snaps. Rookie Rashee Rice actually leads this group in targets. He is doing this despite running fewer routes than his counterparts. He has seen five targets in each of the last two games while getting most of his snaps in the slot. This is a beneficial place to be this week as he’ll see Ja’Quan McMillian in coverage. McMillian rates at 54.8 in coverage by PFF.com. I like what I’ve seen from Rice and expect the rookie to get an increase in work moving forward. You can comfortably start him as a solid WR3 with WR2 upside.
Kadarius Toney was brought over last year to be the guy for the Chiefs but he has failed to become that so far. He gets a chance this week against the Broncos who are surprisingly not giving up the most points to wide receivers (“only” 12th most), Toney will probably see Damarri Mathis who is the 112th out of 113 rated corners by PFF. The Chiefs don’t have a primary outside receiver with most of their guys splitting time between wide and slot snaps close to 50%. It makes it a very murky situation on who will be out there and when. On the opposite side of the field, Patrick Surtain II will be locking down someone. That could be Skyy Moore or it could be M.V.S. Surtain rates as 55th best cover corner on paper, but has a reputation as being a shutdown guy. With the way the Chiefs move guys around and spread out targets, it makes it hard to predict who might be the guy in any game, even this one with savory matchups. All probably end up in the flex range but I’m not confidently starting any of them.
Of course, the main reason the wide receivers see limited target shares is because tight end Travis Kelce is there soaking up the majority of the work. He did get banged up last week but the ankle injury doesn’t look like it will cost him playing time. He may get rest if the game is a blowout so that might limit his upside but I expect him to shine in a prime-time game on Prime TV. If he plays, the move is to start the best tight end in the league as a TE1. Let’s not forget that the Broncos are giving up the 4th most points to tight ends.