Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 15th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Betting Odds: CIN -2.5, O/U 45 via OddsShark
Network: CBS
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Geno Smith (Start, QB2)
Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 campaign hasn’t quite translated to the 2023 season. However the Seahawks sit at 3-1 as Head Coach Pete Carroll continues to keep his team competitive. The Seahawks spent the offseason bolstering the offense around Geno, adding top-tier talents in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet, but this offense has remained basically the same as last season, allowing Geno to succeed as a competent game manager.
I don’t see that changing this week. The Bengals are middle of the pack against opposing QBs, allowing 17.4 PPG. However, through five weeks, they have yet to allow a touchdown on the perimeter. As +2.5 underdogs, the game script should be in Geno’s favor, but in a run-first offense with a team-implied point total of 21, I’m not banking on this to be his breakout week. Geno is a high-floor QB2 in Week 6, but always provides QB1 upside due to his surrounding talent.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker (Start, RB1), Zach Charbonnet (Sit, FLEX)
The dynasty fantasy football community collectively poured one out for Kenneth Walker when the Seahawks took Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. However, five weeks into the season, this is still Walker’s job to lose. The fully healthy Walker was on the field for 71 percent of snaps, compared to Charbonnet’s 24 percent in Week 4 against the Giants. Walker is currently the RB9 in PPG, despite the Seahawks missing both of their starting tackles since Week 1. He is averaging 18 touches/game, and despite everyone’s fear of losing the third down work, he has received 10 targets this season as opposed to Charbonnet’s seven. Starting LT Charles Cross has been practicing this week, and would be a huge boost to the Seattle offensive line if he is able to go. The Bengals defense is in the bottom half in PPG to opposing RBs, but this stat seems to be skewed by a lack of TDs, as Cincinnati is ranked 31st in rush yards allowed this season, averaging 154 yards/game. This is a potential blow up spot for Walker, and I am all in on an RB1 finish.
2023 RB Leaders by Missed Tackles Forced per Touch
1. De'Von Achane (0.57)
2. Jaylen Warren (0.51)
3. Khalil Herbert (0.41)
4. Bijan Robinson (0.41)
5. Kenneth Walker (0.40)
…
36. Dalvin Cook (0.16)
37. Tony Pollard (0.13) 👀
Last / 38. Ezekiel Elliott (0.09)— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 10, 2023
Zach Charbonnet is a young, talented player, but unless his usage increases, he is simply a high-value handcuff to Walker. I do expect the Seahawks to rely on the run game this week, which may give Charbonnet a few more touches and FLEX-worthy upside, but he will still be in a backup role until further notice.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DK Metcalf (Start, WR2), Tyler Lockett (Start, WR2), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sit, FLEX), Noah Fant (Sit, High-TE2), Will Dissly (Sit), Colby Parkinson (Sit)
DK Metcalf is the WR1 in this offense and a must-start regardless of matchup. However, this week may be difficult for him. Although the Bengals are in the middle of the pack in PPG to opposing WRs, they have not allowed a single 100-yard receiver this season, and have yet to cough up a touchdown on the perimeter. DK lines up on the outside 83 percent of the time and does not have a clear advantage over either of the Bengals starting cornerbacks. However, this has not stopped him before, and you’re starting DK every week on talent alone. Metcalf did not take part in practice on Wednesday with a rib injury, but coming off the bye, he’s expected to play on Sunday.
My favorite wide receiver option for Seattle this week is Tyler Lockett. If you happened to read my Cardinals/Bengals (Sit/Start) article last week, you would have seen my notes avoiding Michael Wilson, and suggesting Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz. For these same reasons, I’m favoring Lockett this week. Although the Bengals have been solid on the perimeter, they have struggled in the middle of the field, allowing a high success rate to slot WRs and TEs. My only concern is after drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Lockett has lined up more on the outside than in the slot this year. However, Lockett has been on the field for 69 percent of snaps compared to JSN’s 53 percent, He also has a 22 percent target share when he’s on the field, where he’ll log more time than JSN and command more targets. Naturally, this is where I’m putting my money this week.
A highly-touted first-round pick, Smith-Njigba has not been a fantasy producer so far, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be. He will eventually have a game-breaking performance, and for all the reasons I stated above, it could be this week – but I’m still sitting him until I see it first.
The Bengals are bottom-four against TEs this season in PPG, so this is typically where I’d tell you to attack. However, it’s a bit more difficult with the Seattle tight end room. On the season, Colby Parkinson has been the snap leader at 57 percent, with Noah Fant at 52 percent and Will Dissly at 46 percent. All three seem to get involved when you’d least expect it. I never love using a Seattle tight end in standard leagues, but I do believe Fant offers sneaky streaming value this week. Despite only playing three games, he has quietly been the TE15 in PPG this season. He is by far the most athletic of the three, and PFF has him with a solid advantage over Bengals’ LB Germaine Pratt. With one of the lowest floors and highest ceilings on the slate, Fant could potentially be a great streaming (and DFS) option this week, but it’s admittedly a risky play.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow (Start, Low-QB1)
Joe Burrow is back, baby!
Burrow bounced back in a big way last week in a much-needed “get right” game against Arizona. Without the help of Tee Higgins (rib), Burrow was able to hyper-target Ja’Marr Chase to the tune of 317 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception (which was not his fault). We should not overlook the fact that this was against a Cardinals team missing their best defensive player, but this was exactly what we needed to instill confidence in Burrow moving forward. He looked poised in the pocket and did not hesitate to use his legs and scramble for a first down. This week, Burrow takes on a Seattle team ranked 12th-worst in PPG against opposing QBs. With a team-implied point total of 24 and (somewhat) struggling Joe Mixon, I expect Burrow to continue building on last week, finishing in the low-QB1 territory.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (Start, RB2), Trayveon Williams (Sit), Chase Brown (Sit)
We at QB List were slightly let down last week, collectively ranking Joe Mixon as an RB1 and getting a finish of RB20. I still stand by the process. The Bengals had the lead for most of the game. He had a whopping 29 touches and was even stuffed at the goal line three straight times (which would have put him at RB7 for the week, for the record). But that’s neither here nor there. The point is, if Mixon can’t reach RB1 status in that matchup, with that many touches, with that game script, then when can he? There is no doubt he is the guy in this backfield, playing 75 percent of snaps (with no other RB playing more than 18 percent) on the season, making him a low-ceiling, high-floor RB2 each and every week.
Trayveon Williams and rookie Chase Brown combined for three touches last week against the Cardinals. Neither is more than a handcuff at this point in time.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Ja’Marr Chase (Start, WR1), Tee Higgins (Start, WR3), Tyler Boyd (Sit, FLEX), Trenton Irwin (Sit, FLEX), Irv Smith (Sit)
Turns out he is always open. One week after a semi-meltdown, Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase got right back on track, reeling in a ridiculous 15 receptions on 19 targets for 192 yards and three touchdowns. The absence of Tee Higgins helped pad these stats, but it was clear the Cardinals had no answer for the superstar WR. Chase’s matchup consideration is not elite like it was last week, but that isn’t important. If you have Ja’Marr Chase, you start him as your WR1 no matter what.
Tee Higgins (expectedly) missed last week with a fractured rib, and we will have to monitor his status again this week. The Bengals might be smart to hold him out with their bye coming next week, but was “limited” on Wednesday, so we will have to wait and see. If Higgins is available, he will likely serve as more of a decoy, making him a WR3 this week. If he is unavailable, look for Chase to be once again peppered with targets.
Many were banking on Tyler Boyd (6-39) to be the beneficiary of Higgins’ absence; however, it was Trenton Irwin who stepped up, making eight receptions on 10 targets for 60 yards. Irwin was also just missed on a flea flicker that Burrow threw a step or two ahead of him, and would have given him a huge day. It is very difficult to gauge off of one performance, and neither can be trusted as more than FLEX options, even if Higgins is unavailable.
Irv Smith stepped right back into the starting role last week, playing 61 percent of snaps and earning 0 targets. He cannot be trusted for fantasy purposes and is nothing more than a DFS dart throw until we see otherwise.
– Nick Beaudoin