Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 15th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Betting Odds: SF -5.5, 37.5 total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Chris Sanzo (@Doombot12_FF on Twitter/X)
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (Sit, QB2)
Brock Purdy has been fantastic for the 49ers. The problem is that his near-zero rushing average limits his fantasy scoring. He’s only averaging 250 yards and barely over two TDs per game. Brock is going to provide a solid floor every week, but even his spike weeks aren’t top-five finishes. I hesitate to start him against Cleveland because it’s not certain how much he’ll actually be needed. The Browns’ secondary and pass rush are also quite good so if his work is limited, then his upside this week may also be limited. In total, they are the third-toughest matchup for QBs and a backup QB playing could impact things like field length and the number of drives the 49ers get. If I have equally appealing options, I may pivot for upside, but if you need a comfortable 18-ish points to solidify your lineup, Brock is your guy.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Start, RB1), Elijah Mitchell (Sit), Jordan Mason (Sit)
The Elijah Mitchell experience may be wrapping up with how well Jordan Mason has played behind Christian McCaffrey. Mason is averaging a team-best 5.6 yards per rush and has five first downs on 16 carries, both incredible averages. He is the highest-rated RB (Run Grade) per PFF. I cannot possibly tell you to start him in good faith, but if I’m forced to play an RB between Jordan Mason and most receiving, team RB2 style backs, I lean toward Mason. He could get the majority of the work in a blowout and he’s shown he can reliably spell CMC. Mitchell is still having lingering knee issues so there’s no reason to take the risk. CMC is CMC. I feel confident saying you should start the best RB in football. Fantasy, NFL, Flag, Madden, it doesn’t matter, he’s the best.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Deebo Samuel (Start, WR3), Brandon Aiyuk (Start, WR3), George Kittle (Start, TE2)
It is a credit to the 49ers’ offense that both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are top-20 WRs in PPR scoring. Given that, ranking both as WR3 may seem a conservative estimate, but the matchup has too many opportunities to derail an elite ceiling performance. Lack of Cleveland scoring, short fields, limited 2nd half opportunities, and the possibility of the Browns defense living up to their number one ranking against WRs, are all reasonable outcomes that make me hesitate. The only wideout to have real success against them thus far has been George Pickens. Even then, one big play saved his performance on a four-catch day despite ten targets. I’m not benching them or looking for replacements, I’m just tempering my expectations and planning my starting lineup accordingly.
It’s probably unfair to say George Kittle is averaging 11.3 points and is tied for the league lead with 3 TDs, without giving context. Despite being TE6, three of Kittle’s five games have resulted in six fantasy points or less. As a TE, he has to start. I would not have the same confidence if I needed a Flex play.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson (Sit), P.J. Walker (Sit), Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Sit)
There are no positive starts from this group in terms of QB scoring. Dorian Thompson-Robinson had impressive moments in his first career start, but ultimately, he was too careless with the ball. If they go down a road like that against this 49ers defense, they may as well just punt on 1st down because the many, many turnovers will be far worse field position put on the defense. With DTR sitting, in steps P.J. Walker. He’s mobile, as are all the QBs in this group. If there’s one thing the 49ers struggle against, it’s mobile QBs. The caveat, of course, those QBs actually have to be good, which he is not. Deshaun Watson is the one chance the Browns have at QB, but he may not be ready to suit up to play one of the most physical defenses in football. Even if he does start, a healthy Watson has nearly no shot to succeed, forget about him playing through an injury. In one QB leagues, the waiver wire should have better options.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford (Sit/Flex), Kareem Hunt (Sit), Pierre Strong Jr. (Sit)
The 49ers are the fourth-toughest team in the league in terms of fantasy points per game to RBs. They allow only 43.4 yards per game on the ground. However, they give up six catches per game to RBs. Jerome Ford has 13 targets from weeks two to four, an average of over four catches per game. I wouldn’t play Ford in my RB1 or 2 if I can help it, but he could be a last flex spot filler or longshot bye-week RB2 replacement. While both Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong are (or possibly, were) strong pass catchers, Ford has no limitations himself and the Browns have no incentive not to give him as much work as he can handle.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Sit), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Sit), Elijah Moore (Sit), David Njoku (Sit/Flex)
There is a real, non-zero chance that this team ends with under 100 yards of offense and somehow less than zero points. If Watson plays, Amari Cooper would have flex appeal. The Browns will need him to attack the middle of the zone with his precision routes and that sort of timing doesn’t happen with a 3rd string QB. No other WR in the group is anywhere near as skilled as he is in that fashion and unsurprisingly, no other WR is worth starting.
Here’s a fun stat to emphasize this: Nick Chubb is sixth on the team in receptions… with four. That is only two behind Donovan Peoples-Jones. I cannot fathom a reason for a change in this game. Elijah Moore has 26 catches on the year but for only 8.7 yards per catch.
If I were to start anyone outside of Ford as a longshot play, it would be David Njoku. His effort to even play his last game was impressive enough, but then he went on to lead the receiving group in almost every statistical category. Tight Ends are your typical security blankets beyond the line of scrimmage and if he can draw coverage from Dre Greenlaw instead of Fred Warner, there may be some room for a fantasy-relevant start given the bye weeks. Overall, if I have options that aren’t from the Browns, I’m starting them instead.
-Chris Sanzo (Doombot12_FF on Twitter)