Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 15th, 8:20 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Betting Odds: BUF -14, O/U 44.5 via OddsShark
Network: NBC
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
New York Giants
Quarterback
Daniel Jones (Sit, QB2), Tyrod Taylor (Sit, QB2)
Daniel Jones and the New York (Football) Giants have officially reverted to the Giants’ of old, sitting at 1-4 and at the bottom of the NFC East. Jones was forced out in the fourth quarter of last week’s match against the Dolphins with a neck injury, but all reports are that the Giants believe he has avoided a major injury, and are “optimistic” he will be available for Week 6 against the Bills. Although he claims this is a “different neck injury,” the situation will have to be monitored after Jones told reporters that the soreness felt “similar” to the season-ending neck injury he suffered in 2021, and he subsequently did not practice on Wednesday. He also mentioned that “the biggest thing is dealing with contact,” which is not promising for a team that PFF ranks dead last in pass blocking, run blocking, has allowed the most sacks in the league (30), and may be down two starting OL with C John Schmitz and LT Andrew Thomas both DNP in Wednesday’s practice). Whether it’s Jones or backup QB Tyrod Taylor, the Giants have the lowest team-implied point total (14) on the slate this week, and they should both be avoided at all costs against the Bills, who rank No. 1 in the league in PPG against opposing QBs.
I’ve never seen anything like this. What the hell was Evan Neal doing here??#NYGiants #NYG #Giants pic.twitter.com/mdAhei9wAv
— Anthony Rivardo (@Anthony_Rivardo) October 3, 2023
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Start, RB2), Eric Gray (Sit, FLEX), Matt Breida (Sit)
If the Giants are to have any glimmer of hope this week, they will need Saquon Barkley back. It is clear that the offense runs through him and him alone, and the Giants have done nothing these past few weeks to convince us otherwise. Barkley has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, although we will need to monitor his status as well, as HC Brian Daboll has stated that his status for Sunday’s game is “yet to be determined.” The Bills are bottom-nine against the run this season, and is probably their biggest weakness as a team so far this season, however, the Giants rank dead last in run-blocking and may be down two starting OLs. Who shall prevail!? If Barkley is active, he should be in your lineup, but my expectations are tempered as he comes back from injury and will likely be in a negative game script as +14 point underdogs on the road in Buffalo.
Matt Breida has been the primary fill-in in Barkley’s absence, playing 70% of snaps and averaging nine points/game from weeks three through five, however, it was rookie Eric Gray finally getting involved last week with 13 touches for 26 yards. If Barkley is active, both Gray and Breida should be on your bench. If Barkley is unable to go, I expect Gray and Breida to split time, with Gray getting the upper hand, making him a desperation FLEX at best.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Darius Slayton (Sit, FLEX), Wan’Dale Robinson (Sit, FLEX), Jalin Hyatt (Sit), Isaiah Hodgins (Sit), Parris Campbell (Sit), Darren Waller (Sit, High-TE2)
The Giants WRs are not an exciting group to talk about this week. Darius Slayton is the acting WR1 on the team, playing 78% of snaps on the season, with no other WR playing above 54%. This unfortunately has not led to fantasy production, as he enters the week as WR72, which is somehow the highest output of any Giants WRs. Slayton has been moved around the offense fairly evenly this season, but regardless of whether he lines up against Bills CB(s) Dane Jackson or Kaiir Elam, he will be at a projected mismatch according to PFF. The only thing keeping Slayton in FLEX consideration is that he is on the field, and averaging 4.8 targets/game. The issue is that Slayton is a solid downfield threat, and the Giants’ offensive line cannot provide enough time for anyone to get downfield. He has the highest ceiling of any Giants WR, but that ceiling and floor are both very low.
If I have to choose someone this week, it is probably Wan’Dale Robinson. Please remember that I had to choose someone in this scenario that I made up, and it’s worth noting that Robinson was listed as DNP on Wednesday with a knee injury. Wan’Dale’s matchup versus Taron Johnson is also miserable, but because of his role in the offense, he has the highest floor of any Giants WR. Since his return, he is averaging 5.6 targets/game and has gotten one rushing attempt in two of three. He is the complete opposite of Slayton, as his floor is reasonably high due to guaranteed short volume, but his ceiling remains extremely low, averaging just 27 yards/game with no touchdowns.
The rest of the WR core will resemble some poor combination of Jaylin Hyatt, Isaiah Hodgins, and Parris Campbell. Rookie Jaylin Hyatt played the most this past week with a 60% snap share, which converted into 10 yards on two receptions – a fairly similar stat line to Hodgins (2 receptions – 19 yards) and Campbell (2 receptions – 23 yards). Bleck.
It has been a few years since we’ve seen Darren Waller perform to his ability, but he bounced back to life last week with eight receptions for 86 yards on 11 targets. This is the moment Waller-truthers have been waiting for, however immediately followed with a DNP on Wednesday with a groin injury. Whether he is able to play or not, it is not a great matchup with uncertainty at QB and against the No.2 team in PPG against TEs. In a very positive game script, Waller should see 6-10 targets again and should provide a high-floor option, but TE1 status will have to be earned in this one.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Well, this should be quick.
The Giants are (surprisingly) right in the middle in PPG to QBs. Let’s be glass-half-full kind of people, and call it 17th-best. None of that matters. There is nothing to overthink here. In a home game with the second-highest team-implied point total (30) on the slate, this is a dream matchup for Josh Allen, and you if you have him on your fantasy team. Fire up Josh Allen with QB1 overall upside this week against the Giants.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, RB2), Damien Harris (Sit), Latavius Murray (Sit)
James Cook severely disappointed last week in London, “gaining” -4 yards on five carries, but adding 25 yards on three receptions and four targets. Now on paper, there is a world where it makes sense that the Bills abandoned the run. They are a pass-first team, the Jaguars are ranked seventh in PPG to RBs, and they played from behind the whole game. Simple. But what is unfortunate is that Cook’s skill set leans toward his receiving game, which was somehow still game-scripted out despite their attempt to mount a comeback. I haven’t given up on Cook. Even with this down performance, Cook is still the RB15 on the season (despite only scoring one touchdown), and the Giants rank bottom-four against RBs this season. Before last week, Cook had been averaging 16.75 touches/week, and in an expected (very) positive game script, I expect the Bills to get back to using him appropriately. His ceiling is never that high because of a lack of goal-line usage, but his floor is high as the RB1 on one of the league’s premier offenses.
Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are still competing for the “Lead Vulture” role behind James Cook. Because of Harris’ injury, it was Murray who took over in the early weeks – but with them both healthy, they have been splitting the work, both playing 18% of snaps and both receiving three touches last week. Both of them should also be on the bench this week, with a strictly TD-dependent upside.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, WR2), Trent Sherfield (Sit), Deonte Harty (Sit), Dawson Knox (Sit, TE2), Dalton Kincaid (Sit, TE2)
There’s not too much to say here. Stefon Diggs continues to be an elite WR in the NFL. He is the WR2 on the season, and you should be starting him every week. Diggs is used at an almost perfectly distributed ratio of left, right, and slot percentages (32-34% each), but there is no CB matchup from the Giants that he can’t handle. Start Diggs as a WR1.
Gabe Davis extended his TD streak to four straight games in Jacksonville last week, coming in at the WR14 on the season. Davis is rarely used in the slot, lining up on the outside 81% of the time with fairly even splits to either side. Neither Adoree Jackson nor Deonte Banks are especially intimidating matchups, and Davis has the upside to break any play for a long touchdown. He has regained the trust of Josh Allen, and should be in your WR2 / WR3 spot until further notice. If either (or both) of the TEs are out, his target share should only increase.
Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty are solid depth pieces, but cannot be trusted in your lineups this week. In a world where both Bills’ TEs are unavailable, this could lead to an uptick in playing time, but neither has stood out, and both are playing under a 25% snap share. They are both nothing more than a DFS dart throw.
Both Dawson Knox (wrist) and Dalton Kincaid (concussion protocol) returned from London with injuries, and their status will need to be monitored throughout the week. If both are available, it’s difficult to trust either of them, as neither has established themselves as the better receiving threat in this offense. If only one of the two is available (I don’t even care which), that makes the other a viable streaming option as the clear-cut starter for this week. If neither is available, that presents a pathway for second-year Quintin Morris, who has 84 yards on eight receptions in his career, and cannot be trusted in your lineups.
– Nick Beaudoin