Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 15th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Betting Odds: MIA -13.5, O/U 48.5 via OddsShark
Network: CBS
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
Bryce Young (Start, QB2)
No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young has not been immediately incredible from day one of stepping on an NFL field – which is okay, people. It wasn’t too long ago that NFL teams allowed QB prospects time to develop. Patrick Mahomes was drafted No. 10 overall and proceeded to sit for an entire year behind Alex Smith. It’s okay for a rookie on a team filled with journeymen WRs and second-contract RBs to need a little time. I’m sure Bryce would love to have DJ Moore out there. It sure seems like Justin Fields is happy about it. And let’s not forget why the Panthers had this pick in the first place. Because they were bad. So let’s cut the guy some slack.
Admittedly, he has not been as advertised so far – but from a fantasy perspective, he did game-script himself to the QB9 last week, which is promising. Now, with a team-implied point total of just 17 this week, I’m not banking on that happening again, but I do expect him to hover around the 40+ pass attempts he made last week, putting him safely into QB2 territory.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders (Sit, FLEX), Chuba Hubbard (Start, FLEX)
Let’s talk Miles Sanders. I’ve been on Reddit. I know you want to.
Before nursing a groin injury, Sanders was RB17 through the first three weeks. He was exactly who we thought he’d be – a volume-based RB2 with a limited ceiling on a bad offense. In the past two weeks, he has dropped dramatically down our boards, gaining just 64 yards on 23 touches (2.8 YPT). The hamstring injury doesn’t seem to be helping his case, and he missed Wednesday’s practice with a new shoulder injury. Even if he is able to play, the Panthers are rarely in the red zone and are always in negative game scripts, which are two things that Sanders needs to succeed. Unfortunately, the same case applies this week as +13.5 underdogs in Miami. The Dolphins are middling against RBs this season, but this game could get out of hand quickly, which leans in favor of backfield-mate Chuba Hubbard, who has had a higher snap percentage and has outperformed Sanders over the past two weeks.
Whether or not Sanders is available this week, I prefer Hubbard as a FLEX option due to game script. If Sanders isn’t able to go, that should only increase Hubbard’s floor and project his ceiling into RB2 status.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Adam Thielen (Start, WR2), DJ Chark (Start, FLEX), Jonathon Mingo (Sit, FLEX), Terrace Marshall (Sit), Hayden Hurst (Sit, TE2), Tommy Tremble (Sit)
Please allow me to introduce you to the WR10 on the season: Adam Thielen. After being dubbed “washed” by the Vikings and the entire fantasy community, Adam Thielen has bounced right back into his comfort zone of not just WR1 territory, but fantasy domination. In fact, if you were to extrapolate Thielen’s statistics throughout the entire season, he would finish the year with 156 targets, 129 receptions, 1,340 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Wild. Now, a lot of that is coming in garbage time, but that doesn’t matter for fantasy, and we can safely expect the Panthers to have plenty more garbage time this year. Thielen has a tough matchup this week with Miami CB Kader Kohou, but his current volume and connection with Young give him a safe WR2 floor.
On the outside, we’ve got DJ Chark, who played 99% of snaps last week and will likely be splitting his reps against Xavien Howard and Eli Apple. Chark has big-play upside each week with two touchdowns in four games, and I’d imagine Young will be looking Apple’s way on more than one occasion. Averaging 5.25 targets/game, Chark is a solid FLEX option this week, with WR3 upside due to the projected game script.
The return of rookie Jonathon Mingo put Terrace Marshall right back to the bench last week, playing 0 snaps after an encouraging nine-reception performance. Mingo operated as the WR2 in the offense, gaining five receptions on seven targets for 48 yards. Mingo is currently averaging 6.5 targets/game and was on the field for 86% of snaps last week. Look for Mingo to get more involved with the offense as time goes on, but with zero touchdowns on the year, his ceiling is still very low. Mingo is worthy of flex consideration based on game script, but the floor remains low.
Hayden Hurst was brought in this offseason to be a reliable safety valve for Bryce Young. So far, he has done just that, but that hasn’t been helpful for fantasy purposes. He has earned at least three targets in each game but is TE22 on the season, and it was backup Tommy Tremble who caught a touchdown last week. Hurst is playing 59% of snaps (compared to 20% for Tremble), so he is the preferred option, but both can be left out of your lineup against the Dolphins ranking ninth-best in PPG to opposing TEs.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB1)
The Panthers rank in the middle of the pack versus opposing QBs this season, but Miami has already set the record for most points scored through the first five games, so we’re not concerning ourselves with that statistic. With an elite cast of weapons around him and the slate-high 31 team-implied points, Tua is a surefire QB1 this week against the Panthers.
Reporter: "[The Dolphins] have more yards through 5 games than any team in NFL history. When you hear that, what is your reaction?"
Mike McDaniel: "Mission accomplished… That was our goal. Output after 5 games." 🤣
(via @MiamiDolphins / IG)pic.twitter.com/DG6Sp7ImbD
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) October 9, 2023
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB1), De’Von Achane (Out), Jeff Wilson (Sit), Chris Brooks (Sit), Salvon Ahmed (Sit)
The apparent best RB in the universe De’Von Achane is dealing with a knee injury and is expected to miss multiple weeks. Do not start him.
This opens the door back up for Raheem Mostert SZN. Despite the emergence of Achane the past two weeks, Mostert is still the RB2 overall on the season. That just shows how incredible this team has been. The Panthers are middling against RBs so far this season, but that also doesn’t matter in this case. If the Dolphins get up big (like Vegas is predicting), this could be the perfect game script for Mostert to have another huge game.
It’s worth monitoring Jeff Wilson’s status, as his 21-day practice window is expected to be activated this week. If he is available on Sunday, I’d expect him to act as the backup to Mostert and be eased back into action, but no more than a desperation FLEX play until we see his usage. If he’s unable to go, it was Chris Brooks who handled backup duties last week but only because of a groin injury to Salvon Ahmed. It is unclear if Ahmed will be available, but I wouldn’t recommend either in this matchup.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR2), Cedrick Wilson (Sit), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit), Chase Claypool (Sit)
If you have any concerns about starting WR1 overall Tyreek Hill this week, let me help ease your mind. Of the three potential starting CBs for the Panthers, Tyreek has three of the top seven matchup scores in PFF’s matchup rankings. Now we should recognize that there is always a human element to this game, and we should not decide everything on statistics alone. However, what this means is that given all of the statistics available to PFF for this season, regardless of where he lines up, regardless of what the Panthers try to do on defense, they will not be able to stop Tyreek. So I would start him.
Jaylen Waddle has been underwhelming for fantasy so far this season, coming in at 40th in PPG with 11.8. I personally don’t care about that at all, and I am buying Waddle anywhere I can. Waddle was drafted as the sixth-overall pick in the 2021 Draft, and was the WR13 and WR8 in his first two seasons in the league. Waddle is an elite talent, and these numbers will regress back to the mean. Waddle also has favorable matchups on both sides of the field this week. His blowup game is coming, and it could very well be against the Panthers.
Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios serve as the WR3/WR4 options on the Dolphins. Last week it was Wilson playing 54% of snaps (compared to Berrios’ 39%) and reeling in four receptions on four targets for 52 yards. He is the next man up, but neither option is on the fantasy radar heading into this week.
Durham Smythe has been the team’s acting TE, playing 81% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps, and magically converting that into TE33 on the season. He does not belong on fantasy rosters, and all reports are that the team intends on converting newly-acquired Chase Claypool to TE. I have no intention of rostering Claypool, and this is likely his last real chance in the NFL. If he can’t succeed as the third option on a record-setting team, then we can consider him done.
– Nick Beaudoin