Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 15th, 4:25 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Florida
Betting Odds: DET -2.5, 45.5 total via Odds Shark
Network: FOX
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Detroit Lions
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff (Start, QB2)
In his third year with the Lions, Jared Goff has put together a solid start to the season. Even last week without star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, Goff was able to throw three touchdown passes, and add one on the ground as well. The Buccaneers have been solid defensively and haven’t allowed a quarterback to score 20 fantasy points yet this season which is concerning for Goff’s upside. Nonetheless, Ben Johnson‘s offense has been exceptionally productive through five games, and Goff should be a high-end QB2 while at the helm.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Start, RB1), Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, Flex)
Volume is king in fantasy football. That is why David Montgomery is such an incredible asset. He has averaged 22 carries per game and has found the end zone at least once in every contest that he’s played in this season. It doesn’t matter who the Lions are playing against. As long as he is getting this level of involvement, he needs to be started. With that said, the Buccaneers are the lowest-graded run defense in the NFL by PFF which makes this week even more exciting for Montgomery. Fire him up with the utmost confidence.
Jahmyr Gibbs hasn’t had the phenomenal rookie year that many were hoping for thus far. He’s played under 50% of offensive snaps in each and every game that Montgomery has been active. He also has yet to score his first career touchdown. The good news is that he has looked the part and has been the preferred option out of the backfield in the passing game. He also benefits from a favorable matchup like Montgomery. All of this makes him a decent flex play in Week 6.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, WR1), Jameson Williams (Sit), Josh Reynolds (Sit), Sam LaPorta (Start, TE1)
After missing last week with an abdominal injury, Dan Campbell is confident that Amon-Ra St. Brown will be ready for this Sunday. If he is able to suit up, he should be a locked and loaded WR1. St. Brown has logged at least seven targets every game this year and is the undisputed top receiver in the Lions’ explosive offense. This week is especially enticing given PFF ranks St. Brown’s matchup with the Buccaneers as the third-best advantage for any wide receiver in Week 6. This is largely because Tampa’s slot corner, Christian Izien, is the 87th-ranked coverage corner by PFF. St. Brown lines up in the slot over 50% of plays, so this is a great matchup for him.
The depth behind St. Brown is much less certain. First-round pick Jameson Williams made his return last week but only was able to haul in two passes for two yards. Josh Reynolds was able to score a touchdown, but he played less than 50% of offensive snaps. In fact, it was actually Marvin Jones Jr. and Kalif Raymond who led the Detroit receiving corps in snaps in Week 5. There is simply too much uncertainty behind St. Brown to trust any of them in your starting lineup. It also doesn’t help that Tampa Bay’s outside corners, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III, have both been respectable in coverage this season. Williams or Reynolds could be a reasonable dart throw in your flex spot if St. Brown is unable to play again, but I wouldn’t roll the dice on them otherwise.
There are two kinds of people in the world of fantasy football – people who didn’t expect Sam LaPorta to be the TE1 through six weeks… and liars. The rookie phenom has been one of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s favorite toys to play with in the offense. He should be trusted in your lineup regardless of matchup. This week, there is slight reason for concern as he will frequently be lined up across from Lavonte David and Devin White, but PFF still ranks LaPorta’s matchup as the seventh most favorable for tight ends this week. He should be trusted in a starting role.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (Start, QB2)
It’s been an unconventional journey for Baker Mayfield over the last two years, but he has been pretty impressive so far this season. He has 882 yards and a 7-2 touchdown to interception ratio through four games. The Lions have a formidable pass defense, especially compared to last year, but they still are far from elite. Over the last two weeks, they have allowed over 240 yards to both Jordan Love and Bryce Young and a total of four passing touchdowns between the two. This can partially be attributed to both the Packers and the Panthers needing to air the ball out to keep up with the Lions, but the Buccaneers could very well be in a similar position. With all of that said Baker can be considered a mid to low-end QB2 against Detroit.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Start, Flex), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Sit)
Second-year running back Rashaad White has emerged as the clear leadback in Tampa Bay. He has gotten at least 14 carries and two receptions in every game so far this year, and he has played 77% of offensive snaps. This kind of involvement should be exciting, but it’s less than such this week. The Lions have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season and are PFF’s third-highest-rated run defense. While White has plenty of appeal long-term, this week he is probably limited to a flex option. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has played under 10% of offensive snaps this year and belongs as far away from your lineup as possible.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Deven Thompkins (Sit) Cade Otten (Start)
It has been yet another impressive year so far for Mike Evans. He is currently dealing with a hamstring injury, but there is no reason to believe his production should slow down if he is indeed healthy enough to play. He has been targeted at least eight times and scored a touchdown in all three games that he’s been able to finish. The Lions have also allowed 44 or more fantasy points to the opposing teams’ wide receivers in three of their five games this year. There are more elite options at the WR1 spot, but Evans should be a high-end WR2.
Similarly, Chris Godwin should benefit from the favorable matchup. Godwin has lined up out wide on the offense’s right more than he has anywhere else, and that’s where cornerback Cameron Sutton has lined up 69% of Detroit’s defensive snaps. Sutton has just the 95th-highest PFF coverage grade of all cornerbacks this season. Godwin should be able to take advantage of this matchup and is also a solid WR2 option despite being heavily out-targeted by Evans so far this season. Deven Thompkins is playing under 50% of offensive snaps and has averaged just two catches per game. He should not be started.
Cade Otten has not been a focal point of the offense as he has only played about 62% of offensive snaps and has been targeted on just 13% of his routes run. He still doesn’t have 100 yards on the season despite playing in four games. With that said, the Lions have been dreadful against tight ends this season even though they haven’t played against an elite one yet. They have allowed over 16 points per week on average to tight ends and have allowed the third most points to the position overall this year. Because of this, Otten has TE2 upside.