Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, December 21st, 8:15 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Betting Odds: LA -4, 46 total via PFF.com
Network: Amazon Prime
Writer: Dustin Ludke
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start, QB2*), Jameis Winston (Sit, but if Carr is OUT: Start, QB2)
It seems like Derek Carr is just not going anywhere. Despite every week there being a list of injuries he always suits up come game day and honestly hasn’t been that bad recently for the New Orleans Saints. He has been not so great for fantasy football. Despite having six touchdowns over the past three weeks, he only has one game over the QB2 range. He doesn’t have the yardage to get him consistently into the QB2 range. He gets a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Rams who are giving up the 8th most points to quarterbacks. I’m not trusting him since there is a lot on the line in fantasy and a better option is probably out there.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1), Kendre Miller (Sit), Jamaal Williams (Sit)
I’m not sure there has been a bigger fall from glory than Jamaal Williams this season. Last year with the Detroit Lions, he was a fantasy star. This year, he is a waiver wire nobody. He hasn’t been productive. He hasn’t scored, and he is fully behind star Alvin Kamara. Kamara has come back this year and has been nothing short of what he has always been. Kamara has only one game outside of the RB2 range and has six games in the RB1 range. The issue this week is the Rams run defense is giving up the 6th fewest points to the running back position. You are still starting him based on his pass-catching alone. Kamara has 22 receptions since the Saints’ bye four weeks ago. Fire him up as a solid RB2 this week. Williams and rookie Kendre Miller (if he plays) should be on your bench.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR2), Rashid Shaheed (Start, FLEX), A.T. Perry (Sit), Juwan Johnson (Sit, TE2) Taysom Hill (Sit, FLEX)
The question of who to start for the Saints pass catchers revolves around who will actually be playing. First, let’s look at the tight ends. We know the Rams are giving up the 5th most points to tight ends. Juwan Johnson is really just touchdown-dependent as he isn’t playing more than 50% of the snaps recently and hasn’t seen over three targets since Week 12. Taysom Hill’s usage has dropped a ton so be wary of him. Foster Moreau has been playing a ton but targets aren’t there. I’m not starting any of them as they aren’t getting enough targets and snaps to be trusted.
The hope is Chris Olave will be back after missing Week 15 with an ankle injury. He was a late scratch so there should be hope for managers that were able to advance that he will be available for Week 16. It is a shorter window with them playing on Thursday night but he should be able to go. He would be drawing coverage from Derion Kendrick who rates as the 51st-best corner. I think Olave is a solid WR2 in the matchup.
Rashid Shaheed has been the man stepping up since Michael Thomas went down with an injury. He came back after missing almost three games with a thigh injury but didn’t do well. He only got 6.60 points in Week 15. He now gets to face either Ahkello Witherspoon when lined up out wide or Quentin Lake when in the slot. Both are good matchups as they both rate below 75 in the total corner rating. If Shaheed plays you can start him as a solid flex.
Rookie A.T. Perry has been the other outside wide receiver but hasn’t been productive enough without a touchdown. Sit him this week even if it is a good matchup. He may end up snagging a touchdown since he is 6’5’ but you can’t risk your playoffs on a hope.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (Start, QB2)
Is it crazy to think that Matthew Stafford could be a league winner for fantasy managers who either drafted him late or scooped him off waivers? He is on a four-game streak of two or more touchdowns. He does have to face the Saints this week who are giving up the 8th fewest points to quarterbacks. The fact that the wide receivers are healthy for Strafford and the running game has taken off some of the pass rush gives him the chance to continue his hot streak. I think he is a high-end QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams (Start, RB1)
After missing the middle of the season with an injury, Kyren Williams has come back to the Rams and taken a stranglehold on the running back position. Since returning in Week 12 he has averaged 22.9 carries and 124 yards per game. The Saints are middle of the road in terms of points given to the running back position. This should be another good week for Williams to continue to be a solid RB1 for your fantasy team. His involvement in the passing game keeps his floor high enough that even if he is stuffed on the run he won’t disappoint for fantasy.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
Cooper Kupp (Start, WR2), Puka Nacua (Start, WR3), Demarcus Robinson (Start, Flex), Tyler Higbee (Sit)
The Rams have a power duo at wide receiver in veteran Cooper Kupp and rookie Puka Nacua. They have been solid fantasy producers almost every week. This week against the New Orleans Saints could be a turning point: the Saints are giving up the second-fewest points to wide receivers. This comes from their pair of solid corners. Cooper Kupp will see coverage from Paulson Adebo who PFF.com rates as the 5th best cover corner. Kupp is playing just over half his snaps in the slot which offers him a better matchup against Alontea Taylor who rates as the 89th best corner. Kupp has the ability to move around the formation and still get his targets. He should still be a solid WR2 this week.
Puka Nacua spends less time in the slot now, so he will see coverage from Isaac Yiadom, who rates as the 4th best cover corner. It’s a tough matchup for the rookie who might struggle to get open and see a consistent target volume. The game script leans towards more running, which further takes Puka out of the mix. I think you have to start him because he is one of the guys who got you this far in the season; temper expectations for him as a WR3, however.
The emergence of Demarcus Robinson as the third wide receiver has had a big impact. First, it has limited the upside of tight end Tyler Higbee. Higbee came back from injury and played on 63% of the team’s snaps but only saw five targets and caught four of them for only 36 yards. Sit Higbee. Robinson has also moved Kupp more to the outside. Robinson in the slot pulls the softer coverage, which has paid off in the past three weeks where he has scored touchdowns. You can start Robinson as a solid Flex play.