Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 24th, 1:00 PM EST
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: DET -3, O/U 47 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Detroit Lions
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff (Start, Low-QB1)
We need to practice patience, folks.
People were starting to give up on Jared Goff, but this is just how things go in the NFL. There’s always going to be variance. Rarely is there a player or team who performs week in and out. Defenses start to figure out an offensive scheme, and once someone sets a blueprint, other teams follow. But the great ones who overcome the adversity, and turn their team around.
Now, I’m not saying Goff is “great” necessarily, but he has been a staple in this team’s unlikely resurgence, and appears well on his way to another contract extension. In last week’s “get right” game and absolute stomping of the Broncos, Goff completed 70.6% of his passes, with 278 yards, five touchdowns and no turnovers. This put him at QB1 overall for the week, and at QB9 on the season. Head Coach Dan Campbell must have Goff on his fantasy team, as the team continued throwing unnecessary touchdowns, even with the game in hand.
Despite their team-implied total of 25, I have slight hesitancy about Goff this week. Fortunately this game will be in a dome, as his indoor/outdoor splits are not pretty, but this will be an especially difficult matchup against the league’s best defense since Week 6. The Vikings have only allowed one QB1 performance since Week 5, and come into the week ranked 12th in PPG to fantasy QBs. Before their fourth quarter meltdown against the Bengals, they hadn’t allowed a touchdown in three straight games. They blitz (47.5%) and play cover-2 (23.1%) at the highest rates in the league, which could be Goff’s kryptonite, as he ranks dead last against cover-2 (46.0 rating), and his splits with/without pressure are also not pretty. If Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores continues these trends, this matchup will come down to the trenches, where PFF gives the nod to the Detroit offensive line as the biggest mismatch of the week. Goff’s success will depend largely on his protection, but always has a high-floor and high-ceiling. He will be a fringe QB1/QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, Low-RB1), David Montgomery (Start, RB2)
This backfield remains somewhat of a timeshare, but Jahmyr Gibbs’ explosiveness has been fully on display the past few weeks. Over the past five games, he is averaging 13 touches, 82.4 all-purpose yards, and has scored four touchdowns in the process. Although the Vikings come in 4th in PPG to fantasy RBs (and are in the bottom half of receiving yards allowed), PFF gives the Lions’ offensive line the highest ranked matchup against the run this week. Where I expect Gibbs to truly benefit is as the main beneficiary of the Vikings heavy blitz packages. If they continue to blitz at this rate, I’d expect Gibbs to be on the field more than usual, and become heavily targeted out of the backfield. He’s already averaging five targets/game, and he should surpass that number if the Vikings hold true.
With that said, I’m also starting David Montgomery every week. Despite seemingly being the only Lions player not to score against the Broncos, he is averaging 16 touches and 78.2 yards/game over the past five weeks, with three touchdowns in that span. Recency bias will stick with us as that has not scored in the past two weeks, but Montgomery always has multi-touchdown upside, and as -3 point favorites behind one of the league’s top offensive lines, game script should be in his favor.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, WR1), Jameson Williams (Start, FLEX), Josh Reynolds (Sit, FLEX), Kalif Raymond (Sit), Sam LaPorta (Start, Low-TE1)
Amon-Ra St. Brown deserves some credit for this team’s momentum as well, with seven receptions (nine targets) for 112 yards and one touchdown last week. Amon-Ra has been a model of consistency, currently sitting at WR7 in PPG this season. He is undoubtedly Goff’s favorite target, averaging 10.2 targets/game, and should be in line for another solid day against Minnesota. St. Brown matches up favorably against the entire Minnesota secondary, and should also be a beneficiary of a quick-hitting scheme I’m expecting OC Ben Johnson to deploy if the Vikings blitz heavily. No matter what, you should be starting ARSB.
Now we have to dive a bit deeper. The WR2 role has been in flux for this team all season, and seems to change on a weekly basis. After a great start to the season, Josh Reynolds has come back to earth, with two (or less) receptions in four of the past five games, making him extremely difficult to trust against a tough Minnesota defense.
Meanwhile, Jameson Williams’ role has steadily increased the past few weeks, coming off season-highs in snap share (68%) and targets (7) against Denver. Jameson is a highly volatile player, but he has given us (at least) FLEX finishes in four of his last five games, and his versatility may be needed if the Lions struggle at all on the ground. He doesn’t match up especially well against anyone in the Vikings secondary, but he is used in a variety of ways, and Ben Johnsons seems to draw everyone open at some point in the game. Jameson’s floor is low, but his ceiling is extremely high, and he is trending in the right direction on this team. It’s important to remember that despite being fresh of an ACL tear, this is a player that was drafted back-to-back-to-back with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, with the Lions fully aware that he would be missing (basically) the entire ’22 season. He was always going to need some time to get back into things, but the team traded up for his dynamic playmaking abilities, and are fully invested in him for at least two more years. If you’re feeling dangerous, this may be a good opportunity to buy low in Dynasty leagues on the former first round pick.
On the back of a three touchdown performance last week, Sam LaPorta continues to defy the “Rookie TEs need time to develop” logic. LaPorta is the TE3 on the year, so you should be starting him, but I’m not expecting a repeat this week. He’ll have a much more difficult matchup against a Vikings defense ranked 9th in PPG to TEs, and specifically against LB Ivan Pace Jr., who is PFF’s 9th ranked LB in coverage, of 74 qualified players. It doesn’t really matter though. How many other TEs have three touchdown upside?
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterbacks
Nick Mullens (Start, Low-QB2)
If you were here for last week’s WWS against the Bengals, you’ll already know I was not impressed with Nick Mullens. Mullens’ stat sheet may looks encouraging as QB11 on the week, but a lot of that can be credited to Minnesota’s success in the run game, allowing him to find open receivers off play action. He was directly at fault for two horrible red zone interceptions, had a pick-6 called back, and both of his touchdowns to Jordan Addison were on balls that should not have been thrown, and could have just as easily been turnovers. He is not solely to blame, but there was no reason for Minnesota to lose that game.
Now, this should be an better matchup for Mullens. The Lions secondary has played poorly this season, coming in 28th in PPG to opposing QBs. He benefits greatly from an elite surrounding cast, which has elevated the play of several mediocre QBs already this year. Mullens holds a wide range of outcomes, but with a team-implied total of 22, in a great matchup with positive game script, he should be able to volume his way into low-QB2 range.
There’s also a world where he is benched at halftime. Neither would surprise me.
Running Backs
Ty Chandler (Start, Low-RB2), Alexander Mattison (Sit)
Ty Chandler handled 96% of the backfield touches in the absence of Alexander Mattison. He capitalized on every opportunity, turning 26 touches into an impressive 157-yard, one touchdown performance against the Bengals. This week will be a much more difficult matchup with the Lions, who enter the week 7th in PPG to RBs. The game script will be far different as +3 point underdogs, but Chandler also showed receiving upside, turning three receptions (four targets) into 25 yards. Assuming Alexander Mattison is unable to go, Chandler will once again dominate backfield touches, making him a fringe low-RB2 in a difficult matchup.
As of Wednesday, Alexander Mattison has not resumed practicing, but has not yet been ruled out. I’m operating under the assumption he will not play, but even if he is active, Head Coach Kevin ‘Connell has already backed Ty Chandler as “a guy that is going to continue to see a feature role in our offense.”
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Justin Jefferson (Start, WR1), Jordan Addison (Start, WR3), KJ Osborn (Sit), TJ Hockensen (Start, TE1)
Justin Jefferson looked fully healthy in his return last week, leading the team in targets (10), converting seven of them for 84 yards receiving. Although the touchdowns fell Jordan Addison’s way, you can happily roll out Jefferson in the fantasy playoffs against Detroit’s 27th-ranked secondary. It doesn’t matter who is at QB, and it doesn’t matter what your other options are at WR. There is no world you’re not starting JJ.
Jordan Addison was fantastic last week, converting all six of his targets into 111 yards and two touchdowns. He was able to create separation for huge gains in the first half, and both of his touchdowns (although horrible passes) came on big contested catches. He was every bit as advertised, and everything the Chargers wish they had when they drafted Quentin Johnston two picks before him. In the previous five games, Addison had only been averaging 46.2 yards/game with zero scores, and I’m simply banking on touchdown regression falling back in favor of Jefferson or TJ Hockensen. However, with nine touchdowns on the year, Addison has as much upside as anyone. He is the perfect high-floor, high-ceiling WR3 this week.
KJ Osborn is averaging 3.7 PPR points over the past five weeks. He may actually benefit from the return of Jefferson, allowing him to stretch the field with less attention, but he is far too risky to put into playoff lineups. As a DFS dart throw though? (insert thinking emoji here)
TJ Hockensen also fell victim to the Addison touchdown train last week, however still finishing at his floor of TE10. Detroit is 24th in PPG at TEs, and although Detroit LB Alex Anzalone is having (arguably) the best season of his career, he currently ranks 32nd of 74 qualified LBs in coverage, favoring Hock as PFF’s second-highest ranked matchup this week. Hockensen is the TE1 on the year, and is a must-start asset every week.
Thank you so much for being here this season.
Happy Holidays to you, your loved ones, and most importantly, your fantasy teams!
– Nick Beaudoin