Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 24, 8:15 pm
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: DEN -6.5 O/U 34 Total via PFF.com
Network: NFL Network
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
New England Patriots
Quarterbacks
Bailey Zappe
I’ll just lead off by noting the following, for those of you short on time due to holiday parties, family visits, or the beginning of your prison sentence: there’s a total of two New England Patriots I’d even remotely consider using in a fantasy playoff game right now, and Bailey Zappe, Boy Space Explorer, is neither one of them. Zappe going from ‘cut in preseason’ to ‘starting quarterback’ would be a fine enough story if it weren’t mostly due to two factors. 1) Mac Jones is terrible (and maybe he always was?) and was ruined somewhere during the season if he had once been good, and 2) Bill Belichick stayed around long enough to get escorted out at the end of this year.
You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become a villain. The Broncos have a decent pass defense, if you take the 5 touchdowns last week as an aberration. Previous to that stomping, the Broncos put up eight weeks averaging only 214.8 yards and .875 touchdowns per game. This is a bad matchup, and the Pats don’t have enough consistent weapons.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliot (Start, RB2), Kevin Harris (Sit), JaMychal Hasty (Sit)
While last week wasn’t ideal Ezekiel Elliott, I like Zeke a lot in a game where he should see considerably more usage than the 11 carries he was limited to against Kansas City. While he’s probably not going to cut out another huge fantasy output as he did two weeks back in Pittsburgh, the Denver defense will allow a runner some room to work, and have given up at least one touchdown on the ground per week the past month, also allowing an average of 119 yards per game on the ground over that same time-span. Sure, it’s absolutely possible to see a Kevin Harris or JaMychal Hasty intentional touchdown vulture, because what’s more fitting for the likely last hurrah for Hoodie than to screw over Patriots’ fantasy running back owners one more time, but I’m going to take the risk and put my faith in Zeke one more time.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (Start, TE1 if healthy), Mike Giesicki (Start, TE2 if Henry is out), Demario Douglas (Sit), DeVante Parker (Sit), Others (No Thank You)
The single best beneficiary of the Second Annual Bailey Zappe Tryout and Future Evaluation Festival has absolutely been Hunter Henry, who brought his fantasy owners back-to-back 19 point-plus outings (3 for 3/40 yards and 2 touchdowns against Pittsburgh, and 7 for 9/66 yards/1 touchdown against the Chiefs), and I would be totally in love with him again this week, except for the known fact the only thing on this team that hates fantasy football success more than Bill Belichick is Hunter Henry’s body. At least he is consistent in his breakdowns. His knee decided too much success is not healthy, and as of Wednesday, he’s still not at practice.
If he’s back later in the week, I’m all in on riding the hot streak, particularly against a Broncos squad that allowed 3 touchdowns and 56 yards to Sam LaPorta last week. If he’s sitting…well, I guess I like the tight end friendly tendencies of Zappe enough to give a low-end trust fall vote to backup Mike Giesicki. Do not even look at Giesicki if Henry is playing. As for the rest of the receiving options – I love love love Demario Douglas heading into the future (Hi Ben Brown!), but there’s just not enough working on this team around him to be playing him during playoff season, and the same goes for DeVante Parker except for the ‘love him’ part. Because I do not. Who else these guys got? Tyquan Thornton has a high-water mark of 19 yards in a game this season, and Jalen Reagor is Jalen Reagor. We are done here.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Start, QB2)
All good stories must come to an end, and just like an injury to the noggin ruined our CJ Stroud Adventure Hour two weeks ago, and Matt LaFleur’s sudden obsession with terribly designed gimmick plays ruined the Upstart Packers tale the same week, so too did the Denver Broncos taking just a solid pasting from the Lions last week took all the steam from ‘The Denver Broncos Are The Hottest Team In Football’ story. So be it. I don’t think the Broncos are suddenly bad, some weeks you just get punched in the face. Repeatedly.
Regardless, Russell Wilson has maintained a pretty steady performance fantasy-wise, averaging 16.46 a game since Denver’s bye in Week 9. He’s only dipped into the Sit Zone of under 15 points once in that time but has also not put a Twenty-Plus game in your pocket in that time either. He’s a QB2, that’s as clear as it gets. This is not a terrific matchup either, though the Broncos should see some success as their stringent run defense will force a heavier reliance on the passing game here. If he’s what you’ve got, Wilson should be okay, but I wouldn’t hesitate to sit him if you’ve got a better choice with a superior matchup.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Start, Flex), Samaje Perine/Jaleel McLaughlin (Sit)
Man, I’d like Javonte Williams to have more success, but at some point, we’ve got to be honest and accept that he’s just not a great fantasy option. For the year, Williams has three total touchdowns, so he’s not a ‘chunk of points’ threat of any repute, and he’s only put together one game all year where he gave you over 100 combined all-purpose yards. In the last month, he’s only contributed one PPR performance over the eleven-point mark, and despite other failures that abound on this year’s edition of the New England Patriots, run defense is not one of them – they are second in the league in yards allowed per game at 79.2, and first in yard per carry at 3.2. This is a bad matchup, and the Broncos should be throwing more anyway, as that’s what’s gotten them more success. To re-state a note I’ve made elsewhere, this is playoff season; you didn’t get there with backups, and you aren’t getting any further if you think Samaje Perine or Jaleel McLaughlin are even worth a thought for your roster at this stage.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR3), Jerry Jeudy (Sit), Marvin Mims (Sit) Adam Trautman (Sit)
I’ve put together quite a few of these Denver previews this year, and my opinions have stayed relatively consistent all year. It starts with Courtland Sutton, his 10 touchdowns, team-leading 85 targets, and an average of 4.14 catches per game for a 55-yard average. He’s the one consistent player on this offense that gets you fantasy points seemingly regardless of matchup. When he gets one in the endzone, he’s a WR2, and I’m tempted to list him there, but I’m going on the assumption that you got Sutton as a WR3 option from the jump, be it a late draft pick, or waiver wire grab, so if you can leave him in a WR3 or flex spot and have two other heavy hitters in your top two receiver slots, he’s ideal for outperforming other option there. If injuries and a long season have torn up your roster, it’s the playoffs: run him at WR2 if necessary, and just pray this is his eleventh week with a touchdown.
I don’t like anybody else in this receiving crew for a playoff start – Jerry Jeudy had a decent yardage week against the Lions with 74, but that’s on three catches and has only one score all year long. The week before against the Chargers, Jeudy went 2 for 6 and 16 yards. Against the Chargers. That’s not even trying. I wish him great luck with the Jets next season. Marvin Mims sees a max of three targets in a game, never catches all of them, and is used so sparingly in the running attack I don’t know that he can be viewed as a double threat at this point. Adam Trautman is Adam Trautman. He does have two touchdowns in the past four games (for a season total of 3), but also a grand total of 174 receiving yards for the entire year. That’s 12.4 yards a game. You can get more than that just by streaming tight ends. Even if you just stream different Saints tight ends every week.