Game Info
Kickoff: Saturday, December 23rd, 2023, 8:00 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Betting Odds: Bills -12, O/U 44 via OddsShark
Network: Peacock, NFL+
Writer: Christian Otteman (@COttemanPL on Twitter/X)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
In Week 15, Josh Allen had just his third game of the season with zero turnovers, yet finished as the QB17 on the week. This was due in large part to James Cook‘s emergence as a one-man wrecking crew in a definitive thumping of the Dallas Cowboys. Allen now faces a Los Angeles Chargers defense that was utterly embarrassed in Week 15 by Aidan O’Connell and the Las Vegas Raiders. It’s tough to imagine a bigger smash spot for the league’s highest-scoring fantasy quarterback, but just in case you needed more convincing, the Chargers allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and allow more passing yards per game than any other defense in the NFL. If there’s any wrinkle in this matchup, it’s that the Chargers allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game to quarterbacks. Nevertheless, Allen is a locked-in QB1 for Week 16.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, RB1), Latavius Murray (Sit), Ty Johnson (Sit)
In last week’s preview, I wrote that James Cook‘s matchup with the Cowboys’ front seven was a case of unstoppable force meets immovable object; in this instance, the unstoppable force dominated. Cook drummed the Cowboys, going pa-rum-pa-pum-pum to the tune of 221 yards and two scores. Ever since the Buffalo Bills handed OC duties to Ken Dorsey, Cook has gone ballistic, turning in four straight RB1 finishes. Cook has been unlocked as a pass-catching weapon in the past month, an element that has added an extra dimension to the Bills’ offense and brought them back into playoff contention. Cook now faces a Chargers defense that allowed two rushing scores last week and is allowing the 11th-most points to RBs on the season. There’s no other option than to recommend Cook as an RB1 at this point.
As for the rest of the Bills’ backfield, both Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson are on the outside looking in when it comes to opportunities and fantasy viability. While Murray found the end zone last week and Johnson had his most touches on the season with 10, neither are trustworthy options at this point in the fantasy playoffs and should remain on your bench.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Sit, FLEX), Khalil Shakir (Sit, FLEX), Dalton Kincaid (Start, TE1), Dawson Knox (Start, TE2)
It was another modest line for Stefon Diggs against the Cowboys as he managed just 42 yards on four catches. While this performance can be partially excused due to weather conditions and the Bills riding the run game, Diggs has cracked 10 fantasy points just once in his past five games. The good news for Diggs owners is that this is a perfect get-right game for the star wideout, as the Chargers allow the third-most points in the league to opposing WRs. Diggs will primarily draw coverage from Michael Davis and Asante Samuel Jr., neither of which are ranked in PFF’s top 20 CBs this season. I predict a bounce-back game from Diggs as a WR1 to help managers get to the fantasy championships.
Meanwhile, Gabe Davis continued his Homer Simpson impression in Week 15, putting up his fourth doughnut in the last six weeks. However, given the matchup, I can see an argument for Davis as a FLEX consideration, especially for a team that lost someone like Ja’Marr Chase last week. If there’s any game in which he’ll boom, it’s this one. The same argument can be said for Khalil Shakir: he’s not a reliable fantasy option, but a soft matchup against slot corner Essang Bassey means there’s at least some chance he pans out as a desperation FLEX. Given the choice between the two, I’d still take Davis this week.
Moving on to the tight end position, neither Dalton Kincaid nor Dawson Knox caught a pass last week but both have an easier matchup in this contest. Kincaid has been dealing with a lingering shoulder injury and was actually out-snapped (62 percent to 49 percent) last week by Knox. However, he is still the preferred option following his breakout earlier this season that flashed his comparatively higher ceiling. The matchup with LB Eric Kendricks is a favorable one for both players, so assuming Kincaid can go, he will rank as a low-end TE1 while Knox slides in as a streaming TE2 option.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Easton Stick (Sit)
I have to give at least some credit to Easton Stick, who despite a blowout loss to the Raiders, finished as last week’s QB13 and outpaced the likes of Josh Allen. I have a strong feeling he will not repeat that effort against a strong Bills defense that stymied MVP candidate Dak Prescott in Week 15. The Bills allow the sixth-fewest points to QBs, and Stick could be without star WR Keenan Allen for another week in a lost season for the Chargers. It’s also worth noting that the Chargers recently signed Will Grier to their practice squad, so there’s at least an outside chance Stick could get pulled if things go poorly for him this week. It’s best to look elsewhere at the quarterback position, even in superflex formats.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, FLEX), Joshua Kelley (Sit), Isaiah Spiller (Sit)
Austin Ekeler has been a boom-or-bust option over the past few months, producing four top-eight PPR finishes and four finishes outside the top 30. The bad news is that it has been much more bust than boom as of late, and things don’t figure to get any better with Easton Stick leading the charge. Ekeler has had a fantastic career as a hyper-athletic workhorse RB who doesn’t shy away from contact, but those blows have taken their toll as Ekeler has lacked his trademark burst and agility this season. He still warrants FLEX viability, especially in PPR leagues, but he will likely need to find the end zone to return value against a middling Bills run defense. I won’t fault anyone who opts for other options in their RB or FLEX spots this week.
Amid last week’s blowout, the Chargers opted to give Isaiah Spiller the lion’s share of carries, and he responded by producing an inefficient 50 yards on 16 touches. Even if a similarly embarrassing game script occurs, neither he nor Joshua Kelley carry fantasy appeal in this matchup and should be left on waivers.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR2), Joshua Palmer (Sit, FLEX), Quentin Johnston (Sit), Gerald Everett (Sit, TE2)
Keenan Allen has played through plenty of injuries in his career, including an AC joint sprain this season, but missed last week’s game with a heel injury; he did not practice on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. In a lost season for the Chargers, it would be surprising to see Allen start this week. If he does, he slides in as a solid WR2 option in PPR leagues as the go-to target hog for Easton Stick.
Left to pick up the pieces in this passing attack are the likes of Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. Palmer impressed in his return to game action last week, scoring a long touchdown and finishing as the WR12 on the week. Palmer has come through when asked to step up on multiple occasions over the past two seasons, earning FLEX consideration should Keenan Allen sit this one out. However, the Bills’ secondary is a challenging matchup, with PFF grading matchups against the trio of Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Taron Johnson as unfavorable. Meanwhile, Johnston has had a tough rookie season and isn’t a reliable enough fantasy option to warrant starting, even if Allen sits.
As far as TEs go, Gerald Everett ranks as a low-end TE2 in this game, even in a favorable matchup against Terrel Bernard. The Bills allow the seventh-fewest points to TEs, making Everett a TD-or-bust option this week. I would rank Everett safely below both of the Bills’ starting TEs in this matchup.