Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, December 25th, 8:15 PM ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Betting Odds: SF -5.5, 46 total via Odds Shark
Network: ESPN
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1)
It’s hard to complain about the year that Lamar Jackson’s had so far. He’s grown as a passer and leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards. He should be started in fantasy just about every week, but Week 16 presents a tough matchup to say the least. The 49ers have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. PFF has them ranked as the second best defense in both pass coverage and pass rush. These numbers aren’t quite as concerning for Jackson compared to most quarterbacks given his dual threat abilities, but San Francisco has also been stout against the run this year. Jackson has too much upside and talent to completely write off, but the matchup is unfavorable enough to reduce the former MVP to a low-end QB1.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards (Sit), Justice Hill (Sit)
With Keaton Mitchell suffering a gruesome leg injury on Sunday Night Football, Gus Edwards and/or Justice Hill may be getting a larger share of the workload. It still figures to be a true committee though. Even in Weeks 5 through 8 before Mitchell’s mini-breakout, both Edwards and Hill played under 50% of offensive snaps for the Ravens. A running back in a timeshare is the farthest thing from appealing when playing against the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed the twelfth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. They have been stout all year long, and they establish early leads which forces their opponents to rely more heavily on the passing attack. I don’t expect high volume or efficiency from any Baltimore running back in Week 16, so I would look elsewhere for your fantasy playoffs.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Zay Flowers (Start, WR3), Odell Beckham Jr. (Sit), Rashod Bateman (Sit), Isaiah Likely (Start, TE2)
This is a tough draw for Baltimore’s receivers. PFF rates the matchup advantage as below average for each and every one of the Ravens wideouts. The 49ers have only allowed eleven touchdowns to the position all year. Refer to the section above on Lamar Jackson if you need any more evidence of how difficult this matchup is. It also doesn’t help that all of the Raven pass catchers have been inconsistent this season. Even rookie standout Zay Flowers was held to just one reception last week. With that said, he leads the receiver room in snap share at 87% and target share at 23%. With that kind of volume, Flowers still deserves to be treated as a risky WR3 with upside. The upside isn’t enough for me to willingly take the chance on Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman though. I’d go in a different direction.
The 49ers have been effective against tight ends all season. PFF ranks Isaiah Likely’s matchup advantage as one of the least favorable across the NFL in Week 16. On the other hand, Likely has been a crucial part of the offense since losing Mark Andrews for the season, and he is coming off two straight games with five catches and a touchdown. Against most teams, Likely would be a TE1. Against the 49ers, he is a high-end TE2.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (Start, QB1)
Who would have guessed that Mr. Irrelevant would be the betting favorite for MVP going into Week 16 of his second year? Brock Purdy has taken advantage of his elite weapons and exceed all expectations this season. He is second in the NFL in passing yards and first in passing touchdowns. He also has taken care of the ball and has just two turnovers over his last six games. The Ravens present debatably the hardest test yet for the young signal caller though. They have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and are PFF’s third highest rated defense in pass coverage. Despite the tough matchup, this offense has been too consistently explosive and successful to bench its quarterback. The Ravens may prevent him from being a top three or four fantasy scorer on the week, but Purdy is still a reliable low-end QB1 in this battle of conference leaders.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Start, RB1)
More so than any present you or I could be getting this holiday season, Christian McCaffrey is the gift that keeps on giving. The Ravens have been stout against the run this season, but who cares!? McCaffrey is an elite running back who gets elite usage on an elite offense. McCaffrey got you to your fantasy playoffs, and he very well may get you a fantasy championship too. He should always be you ride-or-die RB1.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Deebo Samuel (Start, WR1), Brandon Aiyuk (Start, WR3), Jauan Jennings (Sit), George Kittle (Start, TE1)
What a crazy few weeks it’s been for Deebo Samuel. He’s had a nose for the end zone, managing to score eight touchdowns over his last four games. His usage through the run game as well as the passing attack makes him a unique fantasy gem. The Baltimore defense has been great this year, but they still have managed to give up the 20th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. That is undoubtedly impressive, but there are still twelve teams that have allowed fewer points. In other words, the matchup isn’t overwhelmingly concerning. Samuel has the 18th best matchup advantage of all wide receivers in Week 16 according to PFF, and his upside is extraordinary. There is a world that exists where the Ravens try to limit Samuel as much as possible and it ends up being other San Francisco weapons who thrive. I’d be more than willing to take that risk though. Samuel is a fringe WR1 with a somewhat low floor but a limitless ceiling.
After starting the year as the alpha prototypical receiver for the 49ers, Brandon Aiyuk has cooled down since. It’s been the Deebo show, but Aiyuk still offers plenty of upside with what I would consider a safe floor as well. Aiyuk actually has the better matchup advantage this week compared to Samuel according to PFF. His advantage is ranked as the eleventh most favorable of all wide receivers in Week 16. He has received at least five targets in each of his last three games, and still deserves a starting spot in your lineup. He is a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside.
Jauan Jennings and all of the other receivers in San Francico don’t get enough volume to warrant starting consideration. They probably are better suited for waivers than your bench, nevermind your starting lineup.
The Ravens have been great against tight ends this year, but George Kittle still has the fifth best matchup advantage this week of all tight ends according to PFF. There are very few tight ends who provide as much upside as the versatile former Iowa Hawkeye. Therefore, he should be treated as a TE1 every week regardless of matchup.